Thread for "What If" stories.....

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

For a replacement, President Kerry choose Secretary of Defense Wesley Clark as his new Vice President.

Clark has, since he entered the Presidential race, been discredited as a politician's general, an incompetent strategist, and a borderline war criminal.  I doubt Kerry would choose him as Defense Secretary, although I could be wrong.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Kerry/Sebelius win in 2004.

Kerry barely pulls out the upset againt Bush, winning the deciding state of Ohio by fewer than 5000 to prevent the election from being thrown into the House.

By January 2005, an Iraqi constitutional government will be in place, and most of the messy work will have been done so that law and order will be in place for the US to pull out and transfer all authority to the Iraqi Federation.  Kerry will get to bring the troops home, and take credit for it.  The economy will be solidly in recovery as well, something that Kerry will also take credit for.  His approval ratings will soar.

In the time between then and the midterm elections, the following will occur:

1. Kerry will try to roll back the Bush tax cuts but get nowhere with the Republican Congress.
2. No rebound for US manufacturing or IT jobs - millions of Americans will have been out of work for five years or more by this point.  Kerry will suggest national health insurance as a solution, to lower the cost of hiring American workers.
3. Kerry will try to introduce a national health insurace plan, which will also go nowhere with Congress.
4. Not a single Kerry judicial appointee will be confirmed by Congress.  Not one.

The Democrats will regain control of both houses of Congress in 2006.  Healthcare is a major campaign issue, as well as backlash against the obstructionist Congress.  Republicans are tossed out by the dozen in the Northeast, Midwest, and on the West Coast.

The follwing happen after the midterm elections:

1. A major terrorist attack on US soil.  Conservatives will blame Kerry for security lapses.
2. Collapse of the Iraqi Federation into civil war.  Conservatives will blame Kerry for pulling out of Iraq too soon, whereas Liberals will blame Bush for "destabilizing" Iraq in the first place.

By early 2007, Iran has become heavily involved in the Iraqi Civil War.  Republicans urge Kerry to take action and send US troops to bring back peace.  Kerry strikes a compromise with Republicans: he will agree to military action IF the Republicans support his healthcare legislation (he will need at least some Republican support to get it passed) AND stop blocking the nomination of his judges.  Republicans, realizing that their obstructionism cost them many seats in 2006, agree to this.

By 2008, we will be stuck in a TRUE quagmire in the Persian Gulf region, our economy will be straining to implement a national healthcare plan, and our budget deficit will be out of control.  Kerry will be seen as a traitor by the Left, and an incompetent, big-government, tax-and-spend Liberal by the right.  The Republicans easily win back the White House in '08, as Conservatives rally against Kerry, and Liberal votes are siphoned away by Green candidate Michael Moore.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What GOP ticket wins back the white House?

Not Bush .

Probably a couple of Centrist Hawks.  Democrats will be struggling to hold onto their left wing against the Greens, whereas Republicans have no serious challange to their right, freeing them to moderate their platform.  In a scenario in which Kerry wins in '04, and the Democrats take back Congress in '06, the Republicans will be forced towards the middle.  That is, unless the backlash against Democrat Washington is so strong that Republicans are emboldened to run a true Conservative.  

Keep in mind that the moment the 2006 Congress is sworn in in this story, Souter, Breyer, Stevens and Ginsburg all resign, hoping that Kerry will be able to appoint younger Liberals to take their place.  If Kerry is able to stock the Court with Liberals, the Right is going to galvanize against him.  This could also bring about a Conservative candidate.

Bill Owens would be a terrific Conservative choice for the Republicans.  What he has done as governor of Colorado is quite remarkable.  Bill Frist would make a good running mate, as the Washington veteran to complement the outsider Owens.

Rudy Guiliani / Chuck Hagel would be a good Moderate Republican ticket.  Assuming Guiliani stays healthy.  Dick Lugar and John McCain will both be too old.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

2032

Harry / Chelsea Clinton                  1573
Soulty / GHWRTVDEEWC Bush              3

It would be George P. Bush, actually, and he would win, taking California (55), Nevada (20), Arizona (26), New Mexico (22), Colorado (31), Texas (61), Georgia (33), and Florida (45).  Latinos account for half of the voting population, and P. Bush takes 80% of the Latino vote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bush / Cheney win in 2004:

Bush narrowly escapes defeat, needing razor-thin margins in Florida, Ohio, and Arizona to win.  He carries the popular tally by half a million votes.

Iraqi Federation government is in place by early 2005.  US forces begin slow withdrawl, which is hindered by continual Sunni terrorist attacks on government.  Conservatives/Hawks in US campaign for offensive against rebels in the Sunni Triangle.  Bush finally bows to their wishes, and a major "mop up" campaign begins in the Triangle, resulting in hundreds of US deaths and thousands of civilian casualties.  He is vilified by the Left, which draws numerous parallels to Vietnam.  Rhetoric from the Islam world, which sees the Federation as a US puppet and Bush as a bloodthirsty crusader, grows increasingly intense.  Muslim Americans take to the streets to protest Bush's policies.

The war continues to be a strain on the budget, and Bush is forced to roll back tax cuts to pay for it.  The economic recovery stalls, and unemployment starts to rise once more.

In summer 2005, a dozen Al Quieda "sleeper cells" across the US move into action, sending suicide bombers into densely populated centers such as shopping malls and downtown areas.  Death toll: 450.  Violence starts to break out across the country, as many people start attacking Arab- and Persian-Americans in response.  Congress enacts legislation giving law enforcement vastly expanded powers to profile, search and seize, wiretap, scan all Internet communications...

The summer 2005 attacks give Bush justification for full-scale carpet-bombing of the Sunni Triangle.  Resistence is crushed, and the Iraqi Federation is now established enough, and built up enough to withstand whatever resistence is still in place.  US Forces withdraw, except for a few advisors who remain to assist the Federation.

In 2006, major backlash against the Republican anti-civil liberty agenda results in Democrat takover of both houses of Congress.  By this time, the economy is strong, and the budget is balanced, thanks in part to Bush's tax hikes.  But raising taxes undermines much of Bush's message and appeal, and his insistence on using veto to keep the anti-terrorism laws on the books strengthens liberal hatred of the President.  His victory in Iraq fades from the memory of the short-attention-span American public.

In 2008, Americans are ready for a change, and Hilary Clinton/Edwards defeat Owens/Frist - the main issues being health insurance, keeping jobs from moving overseas, and civil liberties.  Democrats maintain both houses of Congress.  We come full-circle to 1992 .

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

2032

Harry / Chelsea Clinton                  1573
Soulty / GHWRTVDEEWC Bush              3

It would be George P. Bush, actually, and he would win, taking California (55), Nevada (20), Arizona (26), New Mexico (22), Colorado (31), Texas (61), Georgia (33), and Florida (45).  Latinos account for half of the voting population, and P. Bush takes 80% of the Latino vote.

lol

Oh, he also becomes the first President to give his State of the Union address in Spanish as well as English.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

President Reagan 1980 World War 3 Scenario Story:

Our point of departure is the 1968 election, which Nixon still wins, but Wallace carries a lot more of the South.  Nixon spends his tenure trying to appease the far-right vote, losing the middle in the process.  Edmund Muskie wins in 1972, but the oil embargo, combined with over-regulation cause the economy to collapse.  Mounting popular pressure cause him to withdraw completely from Vietnam, and Saigon falls in mid-1973.

Reagan/Ford win in 1976, on a platform of deregulation and low taxes.  Reagan's economic policies revive the economy.  He starts building up the US military, and sends troops to Israel to defend her against Egypt-Syria.  Bolstered by US support, Israel elects an ultra-conservative Knesset and Prime Minister, who insist on making the post-1967 borders permanent, and deporting all Arabs in "occupied" territories to other Arab countries.  The Arab states, of course, refuse.  This stand-off continues for several years.

Meanwhile, Reagan is building up the military, and installing newer, more powerful ICBMs, developing a missile defense shield, and increasing troop buildup in Europe.  The Russians label him a "war-monger," and build their military in response.

Then comes the 1979 revolution in Iran, and the hostage crisis.  Reagan threatens to invade Iran if the hostages are not returned.  A very helpful Saddam Hussein allows US forces to be built up in Iraq.  At the same time, the Soviets are invading Afghanistan, and supporting Iran against the US.  Saddam invades Iran.  Iran executes the US hostages.  US invades Iran from Iraq.  Soviets send massive ground troops to secure Afghanistan against US/Iraq forces in Iran.  They also send troops into Iran to support the revolutionary government.

By 1980, full-scale war is raging in Iran.  Meanwhile, the Arab League has moved against Israel, hoping that the US is over-extended in its war in Iran.  The Soviets deploy tactical nukes against US/Iraqi forces in Iran.  US retaliates with tactical nukes in Europe.  

Anyone want to continue this?