Detailed Political Analysis of New Mexico

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Mexico[/b]
The Basics[/i]

Population



2004 Presidential Results



2002 Gubernatorial Results



Race

44.7% White
42.1% Hispanic
9.5% Native American

Party Registration

50% Democratic
32% Republican
15% Independent

Congressional Delagation

Senate

Republican: 1
Democratic: 1

House

Republican: 2
Democratic: 1

Party Registration by CD

NM-1: D 46%, R 35%, I 17%
NM-2: D 49%, R 35%, I 14%
NM-3: D 56%, R 27%, I 14%

State Legislature

Senate

Democratic: 23
Republican: 19

House

Democratic: 42
Republican: 28

Key Issues

Growth, Corruption, Enviroment, Immigration, Defense, Water

Major Energy Resources

Oil, Gas, Coal

Mineral Resources

Copper, Uranium, Potash, Gold, Silver, Lead, Iron, Zinc, others.

Main Agricultural Products

Cattle, Dairy Products, Hay, Chiles

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Mexico: County by County Analysis

Union County

Union is a sparsely populated, mostly white and fairly poor ranching county in Little Texas with a large (relatively speaking) Evangelical population.
Union voted for Bush with over 70% of the vote in both 2000 and 2004; in both elections he won every single precinct.
Bush's "worst" part of Union was the north west of the county, while his best part was the south.
Interestingly 55% of Union's voters are actually Democrats and Richardson won Union in the 2002 Gubernatorial race, while Udall won it in last year's House race (he won every county in the district: Union wasn't the closest either).

Harding County

Harding is another poor ranching county, has the smallest population of any county in New Mexico, is mostly Catholic and is fairly evenly divided between whites and hispanics.
Harding has just two precincts: one is heavily Republican and voted over 70% for Bush in 2004 (2000 data is incomplete), while the other one is heavily Democratic and was won by Bush with 51%. Richardson took 57% in Harding in 2002.

Quay County

Another Little Texas ranching etc. county (although nowadays most of the population live in Tucumcari, the biggest town for miles and the only part of Quay with a large-ish Hispanic population) About 61% of Quay's voters are registered Democrats (with Republicans in the majority in just one precinct).
The outstanding demographic fact is that Quay county is the most Evangelical (as a %) in New Mexico.
Both Bush and Richardson won landslides in Quay.

Guadalupe County

An overwhelmingly hispanic, very poor and mostly agricultural (seems like a lot of hay gets grown there) county, Guadalupe is the most Democratic county in the state (84% of Guadalupe's voters are Democrats). Bush's 40% (which seems to have been due to wedge issues) is very good for a Republican in Guadalupe nowadays (although until fairly recently it was something of a swing county).
As a little historical note, Guadalupe's politics used to be dominated by disputes over water in the Pecos valley.

San Miguel County

Another poor county dependent on ranching, San Miguel is overwhelmingly Hispanic (especially in the SW corner) and is consistently one of the Democrats strongest counties in New Mexico (although, oddly enough, it used to be something of a swing county) with around 80% of it's voters registered Democrats and Clinton, Gore, Kerry and Richardson all cracking 70%.
The GOP has a few pockets of support just north of Las Vegas and next to Santa Fe county.

Mora County

Another poor, heavily Hispanic ranching county and about as predictably Democratic as San Miguel (78% of voters are Democrats and the last Democratic presidential nominee not to crack 60% was Mondale). There's a growing tourist industry in the west of the county (where Bush did less worse than elsewhere... although he still failed to win any precincts in Mora) and I'm pretty sure they grow chiles here.

Colfax County

A very diverse swing county on the Colorado border, Colfax tends to pick the winner in most elections in New Mexico.
The Democrats are strongest in the old Raton coalfield and still have some strength in the rural centre of the county, while the Republicans dominate the touristy areas around Angel Fire (the only part of Colfax where registered Democrats are in a minority) some Raton suburbs and the extreme NE of the county (which is a bit like Union county).
Colfax voted narrowly for Bush in 2004 (the only NM county to flip) and overwhelmingly for Richardson in 2002.

work in progress... work in progress... work in progres...

[nclib]

Al, can you do a map of NM counties by liberal, conservative, populist, and libertarian...

[King]

The 2002 Gubernatorial Race isn't a very good representation of the state:  The Secretary of Energy/3-term Congressman/UN Ambassador Bill Richardson v. 1-term State Senator John Sanchez.  I suggest you look up the 1994 King-Johnson race for a more accurate look at the state.

Also, there is a considerable Green party force in New Mexico.  Up until 2000, any race with a Green in it would lead to at least 10-15% of the vote going third party.  This is why the SoS considers it a major party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 2002 Gubernatorial Race isn't a very good representation of the state:  The Secretary of Energy/3-term Congressman/UN Ambassador Bill Richardson v. 1-term State Senator John Sanchez.  I suggest you look up the 1994 King-Johnson race for a more accurate look at the state.

Not the point. The map isn't typical but it shows up some interesting regional differences.

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Haven't got to the areas where the Greenies do well yet. Have patience...

[CARLHAYDEN]

While New Mexico has a number of counties with unususal compositions, I suggest that to better understand New Mexico, you take a look at Hidalgo county.

It went for Kennedy in 1960 with 5% of the vote, and for Bush in 2004 with 55% of the vote.

Largely hispanic, it is resonably conservative.

[Alcon]

While New Mexico has a number of counties with unususal compositions, I suggest that to better understand New Mexico, you take a look at Hidalgo county.

It went for Kennedy in 1960 with 5% of the vote, and for Bush in 2004 with 55% of the vote.

Largely hispanic, it is resonably conservative.

Interesting, but I'm not sure what you're getting at.  Other than showing that some New Mexican Hispanics vote Republican, and some don't vote, what does it prove about the state?

Conservative rural Hispanics are not uncommon.  Hidalgo is a decent example, but there are more extreme examples outside of the southwest:  Adams County, Washington, is 47% Hispanic and gave Bush 73% of the vote.

[Moooooo]

Very nice.  Do Maryland next.  Ive been waiting for your analysis/opinion on Western Maryland and Maryland in general for a long time.

[WMS]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

[Bono]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

[Alcon]

By the way, Al, how are you determining what areas precincts are located in?

[CARLHAYDEN]

While New Mexico has a number of counties with unususal compositions, I suggest that to better understand New Mexico, you take a look at Hidalgo county.

It went for Kennedy in 1960 with 5% of the vote, and for Bush in 2004 with 55% of the vote.

Largely hispanic, it is resonably conservative.

Interesting, but I'm not sure what you're getting at.  Other than showing that some New Mexican Hispanics vote Republican, and some don't vote, what does it prove about the state?

Conservative rural Hispanics are not uncommon.  Hidalgo is a decent example, but there are more extreme examples outside of the southwest:  Adams County, Washington, is 47% Hispanic and gave Bush 73% of the vote.

Many people look at the aggregate hispanic vote in New Mexico, and conclude is rather liberal.

In fact, there are two rather distinct hispanic communities in New Mexico, the one in north central New Mexico (think of the commies in the Spanish civil war) and hispanics in the rest of the state.

Also, my example was rather specific in NOT giving extreme examples, but rather pointing out that much of New Mexico is NOT wedded to a party, but rather is moderately conservative (with a strong libertarian streak).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

bump

This is being finished over at the members weblog; I think we can post there again now

[opebo]

In fact, there are two rather distinct hispanic communities in New Mexico, the one in north central New Mexico (think of the commies in the Spanish civil war) and hispanics in the rest of the state.

Are these groups of different vintage?  As in did they arrive at different times?  I know that New Mexico is unusual in having a large Hispanic population that has been there since before the Revolutionary War, but are there also a lot of more recent arrivals, and are they different politically?

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That seems reasonable - it certainly has been evenly balanced for a while.  But isn't there any sort of populist streak at all, among certain communities?  It is certainly a poor state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are these groups of different vintage?  As in did they arrive at different times?

Yes; the Spanish have been in New Mexico for... ooh... a few hundred years or so... the Mexicans (who live in a different parts of the state)

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Yes and yes. Just have a look at the 2004 results; the heavily Mexican areas were far, far more competative than the heavily Spanish areas. Might make some maps.

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Yes; for one thing most of the Mexicans aren't exactly social liberals. All sorts of different groups and political tendencies in New Mexico.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, hear hear.

Of New Mexico's 1.819 mio inhabitants, 765K identified as Hispanics. Of these, 330K identified as Mexicans, 14K identified some other listed background (ie all the Spanish speaking countries in Latin America, and "Spaniard"), and 421K are listed by the Census as "all other", meaning most of them probably didn't put anything at all, or reduplicated Hispanic, or claimed simply to be "Spanish" which the Census doesn't consider to be an unequivocal answer. Most of these are of the long-established New Mexican Hispanic population, which has been there since before the first Anglo set foot in New Mexico. Most but not all, though. Then again, some long-established people might have put Mexican too. And of course there's no reason to assume the two groups don't intermarry. Interestingly, going by the sample longform questionnaire, 341K are Mexican and 411K are "all other". Maybe people filling out the longform show more care, eliminating some Mexicans from the "all other" group? Whatever.

Of these 341K and 411K, 307K and 376K are over 5 years of age, which means there's Language data for them.
Of the Mexicans, 212K were actually born in the US (179K/341K in New Mexico, btw). Of these 73K speak only English at home, and 104K speak Spanish at home but speak English very well (self-identified). 33K don't.
96K were not born in the US (97K if you count those aged under 5, of which 27K are naturalized US citizens). Even of these, 6K claim to speak only English at home, but only an additional 24K speak it very well. 20K don't speak the language at all.
 
Of the all others, 364K were born in the US (398/421K in New Mexico, btw) Of these 156K speak only English at home, 164K speak it very well, 43 don't. 12K are foreign born (and thence certainly don't "really" belong in this group).

I was of the opinion that the two groups also identify differently by race - the old Spanish population checking "White", the Mexicans splitting between "White" and "Some Other Race". This isn't really born out by the data though, the Spanish have more or less the same problem as the Mexicans.

Now...let's have a look at the two group's spatial distributions.
Counties with major Hispanic populations are...(I included counties with Hispanic populations over 20K and counties over or close to 50% Hispanic)
Bernalillo 234K Hispanic  out of 557K total. 89K Mexican (these are full count data again), 138K all other. 31K not citizens of the US and Hispanic (that's once again a sample questionnaire figure...) Figures from here follow the same order.
Chaves 27K - 61K - 17K - 10K - 5K
Colfax 7K - 14K - 2K - 5K - under 500
Dona Ana 111K - 175K - 79K - 31K - 21K
Eddy 20K - 52K - 12K - 8K - 1K
Grant 15K - 31K - 9K - 6K - under 500
Guadalupe 4K - 5K - 1K - 3K - under 500
Hidalgo 3K - 6K - 3K - 1K - under 500
Lea 22K - 56K - 15K - 7K - 4K
Luna 14K - 25K - 11K - 3K - 4K
Mora 4K - 5K - 1K - 4K - under 500
Otero 20K - 62K - 14K - 5K - 5K
Rio Arriba 30K - 41K - 4K - 26K - 1K
San Miguel 23K - 30K - 4K - 19K - 1K
Santa Fe 63K - 129K - 17K - 45K - 9K
Socorro 9K - 18K - 3K - 6K - 1K
Taos 17K - 30K - 2K - 15K - 1K
Valencia 36K - 66K - 11K - 25K - 1K

Data overkill? Data overkill. Still, we can see that the North's (Santa Fe, Taos, San Miguel, Rio Arriba, Colfax, Guadalupe, Mora) Hispanic population is long established and citizen, while Little Texas' and Dona Ana's Hispanic population is of recent Mexican immigrant origin and includes a very sizable noncitizen minority, helping to explain why Republicans do so well there despite high Hispanic populations. The Albuquerque area has both groups.Grant County, in the Southwest, presents an odd picture as its population is overwhelmingly citizen but majority Mexican ... maybe a separate wave of immigration some decades ago? Might make sense to check the area's population history. I know Silver City was once (like, a hundred years ago) the second largest city in the state, after Santa Fe, and that (duh, given that city name) it used to be an ore mining area.

[WMS]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

[Bono]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

LOL, I don't have any obscure reason.
I'm just interested, that's all. I've been doing these knowledge gatherings this for US states randomly since a longn time ago. I rememger my first was Nebraska.

[WMS]

Are these groups of different vintage?  As in did they arrive at different times?

Yes; the Spanish have been in New Mexico for... ooh... a few hundred years or so... the Mexicans (who live in a different parts of the state)

Spanish since 1598, with a decade-or-so interregnum following the Pueblo Revolt in 1680. Quick history starting here. Mexicans no earlier than 1820 or so, clearly.

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Yes and yes. Just have a look at the 2004 results; the heavily Mexican areas were far, far more competative than the heavily Spanish areas. Might make some maps.[/quote]

Cool.

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Yes; for one thing most of the Mexicans aren't exactly social liberals. All sorts of different groups and political tendencies in New Mexico.
[/quote]

Al's got it, although I will patiently await him to fill in the details. For starters, some of the Northern Democrats are more communitarian than left-liberal...

Oh, nice info Lewis.

[WMS]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

LOL, I don't have any obscure reason.
I'm just interested, that's all. I've been doing these knowledge gatherings this for US states randomly since a longn time ago. I rememger my first was Nebraska.

Darn it, I was hoping it was something obscure and ominous!
An excellent reason.

[Bono]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

LOL, I don't have any obscure reason.
I'm just interested, that's all. I've been doing these knowledge gatherings this for US states randomly since a longn time ago. I rememger my first was Nebraska.

Indeed. ANd not just US states, but other countries/subdivisions elsewhere too.

Darn it, I was hoping it was something obscure and ominous!
An excellent reason.

[WMS]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

LOL, I don't have any obscure reason.
I'm just interested, that's all. I've been doing these knowledge gatherings this for US states randomly since a longn time ago. I rememger my first was Nebraska.

Darn it, I was hoping it was something obscure and ominous!
An excellent reason.

Indeed. ANd not just US states, but other countries/subdivisions elsewhere too.

A noble and ambitious undertaking, to be sure. Politically, I've long wished for the equivalent to The Almanac of American Politics for other countries...

[Alcon]

Al, not sure if you saw my question:  where are you getting the locations of the precincts?  I have them in meaningless number form, but no maps.  Are you basing it on 2000 Census precinct maps?

[Bono]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

LOL, I don't have any obscure reason.
I'm just interested, that's all. I've been doing these knowledge gatherings this for US states randomly since a longn time ago. I rememger my first was Nebraska.

Darn it, I was hoping it was something obscure and ominous!
An excellent reason.

Indeed. ANd not just US states, but other countries/subdivisions elsewhere too.

A noble and ambitious undertaking, to be sure. Politically, I've long wished for the equivalent to The Almanac of American Politics for other countries...

For instanc,e did you know Hawaii is the only state with a centralized education system, where there are no school boards/districts?
THese kind of things you leanr.
I admit I havent been looking so much into politics as the general culture of the places, though.

[WMS]

bump

Why the sudden interest in New Mexico, Bono?

I get this things. Don't try to understand.

So, you're not going to tell me, then, eh?

LOL, I don't have any obscure reason.
I'm just interested, that's all. I've been doing these knowledge gatherings this for US states randomly since a longn time ago. I rememger my first was Nebraska.

Darn it, I was hoping it was something obscure and ominous!
An excellent reason.

Indeed. ANd not just US states, but other countries/subdivisions elsewhere too.

A noble and ambitious undertaking, to be sure. Politically, I've long wished for the equivalent to The Almanac of American Politics for other countries...

For instanc,e did you know Hawaii is the only state with a centralized education system, where there are no school boards/districts?
THese kind of things you leanr.
I admit I havent been looking so much into politics as the general culture of the places, though.

No.
That's even better, actually...