Australian Election Prediction Contest 2013

[morgieb]

Yo, we had one in 2007 and 2010 apparently, so lets do it again.

National 2PP vote

Seats per Party, nationally.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Tasmania
ACT
Northern Territory

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon
Lyons

Northern Territory
Lingiari
Solomon

South Australia
Adelaide
Boothby
Hindmarsh
Wakefield

Western Australia
Brand
Durack
Hasluck
O'Connor
Swan

Victoria
Aston
Bendigo
Chisholm
Corangamite
Deakin
Dunkley
Indi
La Trobe
McEwen
Melbourne
Mallee

Queensland
Blair
Bonner
Brisbane
Capricornia
Dawson
Fairfax
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Longman
Moreton
Petrie

New South Wales
Banks
Barton
Bennelong
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Greenway
Kingsford Smith
Lindsay
Macquarie
McMahon
Page
Parramatta
Reid
Robertson
Werriwa

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat
Closest Seat
Highest Swing
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none')

You have until 6pm AEST on the 7th September.

[Hifly]

National 2PP: 54.5-45.5 to the Libs

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass: Liberals
Braddon: Liberals
Lyons: Liberals

Northern Territory
Lingiari: Liberals
Solomon: Liberals

South Australia
Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberals
Hindmarsh: Liberals
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia
Brand: Labor
Hasluck: Liberals
Swan: Liberals

Victoria
Aston: Liberals
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberals
Deakin: Liberals
Dunkley: Liberals
Indi: Liberals
La Trobe: Liberals
McEwen: Liberals
Melbourne: Greens
Mallee: Nationals

Queensland
Blair: Labor
Bonner: LNP
Brisbane: LNP
Capricornia: Labor
Dawson: LNP
Flynn: LNP
Forde: LNP
Herbert: LNP
Longman: LNP
Moreton: LNP
Petrie: LNP

New South Wales
Banks: Liberals
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberals
Dobell: Liberals
Eden-Monaro: Labor
Greenway: Liberals
Kingsford Smith: Liberals
Lindsay: Liberals
Macquarie: Liberals
McMahon: Liberals
Page: Liberals
Parramatta: Liberals
Reid: Liberals. I'll be very sad to see John Murphy go.
Robertson: Liberals
Werriwa: Liberals

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberals

Highest Swing: Lyons
Random Upset: Newcastle

[Smid]

I have a bit of a predictions map I've been doing, but I'm not prepared to share it publicly. I will say that my last prediction was for a hung parliament.

[Vosem]

Subject to change -- the election is still most of a week away, after all.

National 2PP vote
Coalition 53-47

Seats per Party, nationally.
Coalition 85
Labor 59
WA Nationals 2
KAP 1
PUP 1
Greens 1
Cathy McGowan 1

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales: Coalition wins, 56-44
Victoria: ALP wins, 51-49
Queensland: Coalition wins, 56-44
Western Australia: Coalition wins, 58-42
South Australia: Coalition wins, 50-50
Tasmania: ALP wins, 51-49
ACT: ALP wins, 63-37
Northern Territory: Coalition wins, 55-45

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass: Liberals
Braddon: Liberals
Lyons: ALP

Northern Territory
Lingiari: CLP (massive swing to CLP)
Solomon: CLP (very small swing to ALP, but not enough to unseat Griggs)

South Australia
Adelaide: ALP
Boothby: Liberals
Hindmarsh: ALP
Wakefield: ALP

Western Australia
Brand: ALP
Hasluck: Liberals
Swan: Liberals

Victoria
Aston: Liberals
Bendigo: ALP
Chisholm: ALP
Corangamite: Liberals
Deakin: Liberals
Dunkley: Liberals
Indi: Cathy McGowan
La Trobe: Liberals
McEwen: ALP
Melbourne: Greens (swing to ALP on 2PP, but not enough because Bandt gains 1st prefs to low 40s)
Mallee: Liberals

Queensland
Blair: ALP
Bonner: LNP
Brisbane: ALP
Capricornia: ALP
Dawson: ALP
Flynn: LNP
Forde: ALP
Herbert: ALP
Longman: LNP
Moreton: LNP
Petrie: LNP

New South Wales
Banks: Liberals
Barton: ALP
Bennelong: Liberals
Dobell: Liberals
Eden-Monaro: ALP
Greenway: ALP
Kingsford Smith: ALP
Lindsay: Liberals
Macquarie: Liberals
McMahon: ALP
Page: ALP
Parramatta: Liberals
Reid: Liberals
Robertson: Liberals
Werriwa: Liberals

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Greens

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat: Gellibrand, Vic
Closest Seat: oh...Kingsford Smith, NSW
Highest Swing: Braddon, Tas
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): Fairfax, Qld goes to Palmer

FINAL PREDICTIONS

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I have a bit of a predictions map I've been doing, but I'm not prepared to share it publicly. I will say that my last prediction was for a hung parliament.

As was mine...

[Platypus]

You're being too pessimistic/optimistic, I think, but hopefully you're right

[morgieb]

Added a few more seats I forgot about originally. Probably because they aren't traditional contests, but I included Indi and Mallee, so they can go in too.

[morgieb]

National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.3%
Labor 47.7%

Seats per Party, nationally.

Coalition - 84
Labor - 63
Greens - 0
KAP - 1
Others - 2 (Palmer in Fairfax, Wilkie in Denison)

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales - 53.6% Coalition
Victoria - 50.8% Labor
Queensland - 53.9% Coalition
Western Australia - 56.1% Coalition
South Australia - 51.9% Coalition
Tasmania - 52.2% Labor
ACT - 60.6% Labor
Northern Territory - 51.6% Coalition

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass - Liberal
Braddon - Liberal
Lyons - ALP

Northern Territory
Lingiari - CLP
Solomon - CLP

South Australia
Adelaide - ALP
Boothby - Liberal
Hindmarsh - ALP
Wakefield - ALP

Western Australia
Brand - ALP
Durack - WA Nationals
Hasluck - Liberal
O'Connor - WA Nationals
Swan - Liberal

Victoria
Aston - Liberal
Bendigo - ALP
Chisholm - ALP
Corangamite - Liberal
Deakin - Liberal
Dunkley - Liberal
Indi - Liberal
La Trobe - Liberal
McEwen - ALP
Melbourne - ALP
Mallee - Liberal (unless Labor are preferencing Nationals?)

Queensland
Blair - ALP
Bonner - LNP
Brisbane - ALP
Capricornia - ALP (can't remember how Katter is preferencing though)
Dawson - ALP
Fairfax - PUP (ballsy but I think the surge for the PUP will get him over the line with a deficit of primary votes)
Flynn - LNP
Forde - ALP
Herbert - ALP
Longman - LNP
Moreton - LNP
Petrie - ALP

New South Wales
Banks - Liberal
Barton - ALP
Bennelong - Liberal
Dobell - Liberal
Eden-Monaro - ALP
Greenway - Liberal
Kingsford Smith - ALP
Lindsay - Liberal
Macquarie - Liberal
McMahon - ALP
Page - ALP
Parramatta - Liberal
Reid - Liberal
Robertson - Liberal
Werriwa - ALP

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Safest Seat - Wills, VIC
Closest Seat - Hindmarsh, SA
Highest Swing - Lyons, TAS (on traditional terms)
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): none, unless Palmer counts. Though several districts which count won't surprise me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labor are preferencing the Liberal in Mallee.

[Tender Branson]

National 2PP vote:

46% Labour
54% Conservatives

[Platypus]

National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.5

Seats per Party, nationally.

Coalition: 81
Labor: 66
Katter's Australia Party: 1
Independent: 2

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales Coalition 55.0%
Victoria Labor 53.3%
Queensland Coalition 53.5%
Western Australia Coalition 54.8%
South Australia Coalition 50.8%
Tasmania Labor 54.5%
ACT Labor 62.3%
Northern Territory Coalition 52.1%

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania

Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Labor
Lyons: Labor

Northern Territory

Lingiari: Labor
Solomon: CLP

South Australia

Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia

Brand: Labor
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Victoria

Aston: Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Labor
Dunkley: Liberal
Indi: Independent
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Labor
Mallee: National

Queensland

Blair: Labor
Bonner: LNP
Brisbane: Labor
Capricornia: Labor
Dawson: LNP
Fairfax: LNP
Flynn: LNP
Forde: Labor
Herbert: LNP
Longman: LNP
Moreton: Labor
Petrie: Labor

New South Wales

Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberal
Dobell: Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Labor
Greenway: Liberal
Kingsford Smith: Labor
Lindsay: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor
Parramatta: Labor
Reid: Liberal
Robertson: Liberal
Werriwa: Labor

Australian Capital Territory

Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat: Murray, VIC
Closest Seat: LaTrobe, VIC
Highest Swing: If it counts, Mallee, VIC. If not, Makin, SA
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): none

[Jahiegel]

National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.6%

Seats per party, nationally

Coalition 92, Labor 55, Greens 1, Katter's Australian Party 1, Independent 1

2PP vote per state and territory

New South Wales: Coalition 55.2%
Victoria: Labor 52.6%
Queensland: Coalition 54.8%
Western Australia: Coalition 56.7%
South Australia: Coalition 52.0%
Tasmania: Coalition 51.2%
ACT: Labor 59.5%
Northern Territory: Coalition 52.6%

Winning party by seat

Tasmania
Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Lyons: Liberal

Northern Territory
Lingiari: Labor (a roughly indefensible prediction, given all of my others, I know, and yet one from which I can't escape)
Solomon: Country Liberal

South Australia
Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia
Brand: Labor
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Victoria
Aston: Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Liberal
Dunkley: Liberal
Indi: Liberal
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Greens (even now the betting markets have Bandt priced far too long, IMHO)
Mallee: National

Queensland
Blair: Labor
Bonner: Liberal National
Brisbane: Liberal National
Capricornia: Liberal National
Dawson: Liberal National
Fairfax: Liberal National
Flynn: Liberal National
Forde: Liberal National
Herbert: Liberal National
Longman: Liberal National
Moreton: Liberal National
Petrie: Liberal National (after changing my mind at least thrice)

New South Wales
Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberal
Dobell: Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Liberal (50.1 either way)
Greenway: 0-for-6
Kingsford Smith: Labor (toss-up)
Lindsay: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor (toss-up)
Parramatta: Liberal
Reid: Liberal
Robertson: Liberal
Werriwa: Labor

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Safest seat: Batman, VIC
Closest seat: Eden-Monaro, NSW (why not?)
Highest swing: Bass, TAS (15.6%)
Random upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): None it is.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

National 2PP vote - 53-47

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor: 55
Coalition: 93
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 0

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales - 55-45
Victoria - 48-52
Queensland - 54-46
Western Australia - 57-43
South Australia - 52-48
Tasmania - 49-51
ACT - 42-58
Northern Territory - 53-47

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass - Liberal
Braddon - Liberal
Lyons - Labor

Northern Territory
Lingiari - CLP
Solomon - CLP

South Australia
Adelaide - Labor
Boothby - Liberal
Hindmarsh - Liberal
Wakefield - Labor

Western Australia
Brand - Labor
Durack - National
Hasluck - Liberal
O'Connor - National
Swan - Liberal

Victoria
Aston - Liberal
Bendigo - Labor
Chisholm - Labor
Corangamite - Liberal
Deakin - Liberal
Dunkley - Liberal
Indi - Liberal, narrowly
La Trobe - Liberal
McEwen - Labor
Melbourne - Labor
Mallee - National

Queensland
Blair - Labor
Bonner - LNP
Brisbane - LNP
Capricornia - Labor
Dawson - LNP
Fairfax - LNP
Flynn - LNP
Forde - LNP
Herbert - LNP
Longman - LNP
Moreton - LNP
Petrie - ALP

New South Wales
Banks - Liberal
Barton - Labor
Bennelong - Liberal
Dobell - Liberal
Eden-Monaro - Liberal
Greenway - Liberal
Kingsford Smith - Labor
Lindsay - Liberal
Macquarie - Liberal
McMahon - Labor
Page - National
Parramatta - Liberal
Reid - Liberal
Robertson - Liberal
Werriwa - Labor

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat - Murray, VIC
Closest Seat - Parramatta, NSW
Highest Swing - Franklin, TAS
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none') - Palmer in Fairfax, otherwise none.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

National 2PP vote

Coalition 52.9%
ALP: 47.1%

Seats per Party, nationally.

Coalition: 87
Labor: 60
Katter's Australia Party: 1
Independent: 2

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales Coalition 55.0%
Victoria Labor 52.7%
Queensland Coalition 54.2%
Western Australia Coalition 55.0%
South Australia Coalition 50.8%
Tasmania Labor 52.5%
ACT Labor 61.5%
Northern Territory Labor 50.1%

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania

Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Lyons: Labor

Northern Territory

Lingiari: Labor
Solomon: Labor

South Australia

Adelaide: Labor
Boothby: Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield: Labor

Western Australia

Brand: Labor
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor: Liberal
Swan: Liberal

Victoria

Aston: Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Labor
Dunkley: Liberal
Indi: Independent
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labor
Melbourne: Labor
Mallee: National

Queensland

Blair: LNP
Bonner: LNP
Brisbane: Labor
Capricornia: Labor
Dawson: LNP
Fairfax: LNP
Flynn: LNP
Forde: LNP
Herbert: LNP
Longman: LNP
Moreton: LNP
Petrie: Labor

New South Wales

Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong: Liberal
Dobell: Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Labor
Greenway: Liberal
Kingsford Smith: Labor
Lindsay: Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor
Parramatta: Liberal
Reid: Liberal
Robertson: Liberal
Werriwa: LNP

Australian Capital Territory

Second Senator: Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat: Murray, VIC
Closest Seat: LaTrobe, VIC
Highest Swing: Indi, VIC
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): none

[Smid]

I've emailed my prediction to a few posters. I may email them a couple of changes tomorrow morning... I'll report my overall seat deviation after the election, without naming specific seats (I'll say how many I got wrong).

I won't try to guess 2PP by state, but second ACT Senator will be Liberal.

Still thinking about safest, most marginal and biggest swing.

[countydurhamboy]

I'll have a go.

Coalition: 53
Labor: 47

Coalition 87
Labor 59
Ind  2
PUP 1
KAP 1

Tasmania
Bass: Liberal
Braddon: Liberal
Lyons : Labor

Northern Territory
Lingiari : Labor
Solomon : Liberal


South Australia
Adelaide: Labor
Boothby : Liberal
Hindmarsh: Labor
Wakefield : Labor

Western Australia
Brand: Labour
Durack: Liberal
Hasluck: Liberal
O'Connor : Liberal
Swan : Liberal

Victoria
Aston : Liberal
Bendigo: Labor
Chisholm: Labor
Corangamite: Liberal
Deakin: Liberal
Dunkley; Liberal
Indi : Independent
La Trobe: Liberal
McEwen: Labour
Melbourne: Labour
Mallee: National

Queensland
Blair: Labour
Bonner: LNP
Brisbane: LNP
Capricornia: Labor
Dawson: LNP
Fairfax: Palmer
Flynn: LNP
Forde: Labor
Herbert: LNP
Longman: LNP
Moreton : Labor
Petrie: Labor

New South Wales
Banks: Liberal
Barton: Labor
Bennelong :Liberal
Dobell : Liberal
Eden-Monaro: Liberal
Greenway :Liberal
Kingsford Smith: Liberal
Lindsay : Liberal
Macquarie: Liberal
McMahon: Labor
Page: Labor
Parramatta: Liberal
Reid : Liberal
Robertson; Liberal
Werriwa; Liberal

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator : Liberal

-Bonus-
Safest seat: Bradfield
Closest seat: Werriwa
Highest swing: Braddon
Random upset: Fairfax to Palmer

[Keystone Phil]

All I'll say is the national 2PP vote will be 55% for Coalition. I'll check back some time tomorrow to receive my praise.

[Talleyrand]

100% error, and heavily based on some gut feeling and a slight () urge to be contrarian. Although it's mostly because I'm feeling deeply pessimistic.

National 2PP vote

Coaliton: 54.4%
Labor: 45.6%

Seats per Party, nationally.

Coalition: 102 (+29)
Labor: 45 (-27)
Greens: 1 (-)
KAP: 1 (-)
Independent: 1 (-2)

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales (57-43 Coalition)
Victoria (50-50 Labor)
Queensland (56-44 Coalition)
Western Australia (59-41 Coalition)
South Australia (54-46 Coalition)
Tasmania (52-48 Coalition)
ACT (59-41 Labor)
Northern Territory (54-46 Coalition)

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass- Liberal
Braddon- Liberal
Lyons- Liberal

Northern Territory
Lingiari- Liberal
Solomon- Liberal

South Australia
Adelaide- Liberal
Boothby- Liberal
Hindmarsh- Liberal
Wakefield- Liberal

Western Australia
Brand- Labor
Durack- Liberal
Hasluck- Liberal
O'Connor- Liberal
Swan- Liberal

Victoria
Aston- Liberal
Bendigo- Labor
Chisholm- Liberal
Corangamite- Liberal
Deakin- Liberal
Dunkley- Liberal
Indi- Liberal
La Trobe- Liberal
McEwen- Labor
Melbourne- Greens
Mallee- Liberal

Queensland
Blair- LNP
Bonner- LNP
Brisbane- LNP
Capricornia- LNP
Dawson- LNP
Fairfax- LNP
Flynn- LNP
Forde- LNP
Herbert- LNP
Longman- LNP
Moreton- LNP
Petrie- LNP

New South Wales
Banks- Liberal
Barton- Labor
Bennelong- Liberal
Dobell- Liberal
Eden-Monaro- Liberal
Greenway- Liberal
Kingsford Smith- Liberal
Lindsay- Liberal
Macquarie- Liberal
McMahon- Labor
Page- National
Parramatta- Liberal
Reid- Liberal
Robertson- Liberal
Werriwa- Liberal

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator- Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat- Murray, Victoria
Closest Seat- Barton, NSW
Highest Swing- Lyons, Tasmania
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none')- None

You have until 6pm AEST on the 7th September.

[Smid]

Most marginal: Bruce

Safest: Maranoa

Biggest swing: New England

Surprise upset: Kennedy or none.

[TommyC1776]

I think, at this point, the Coalition will win a majority government.  I say anywhere from 50%-55% for Coalition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most marginal: Bruce

That's interesting.

So are you thinking the swing is a bit more uniform than has become Received Wisdom?

[morgieb]

National 2PP vote

Coalition 53.5%
Labor 46.5%

Seats per Party, nationally.

Coalition - 93
Labor - 52
Greens - 1
KAP - 1
Others - 3 (Palmer in Fairfax, McGowan in Indi, Wilkie in Denison)

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales - 55.2% Coalition
Victoria - 50.2% Labor
Queensland - 54.6% Coalition
Western Australia - 57.1% Coalition
South Australia - 52.7% Coalition
Tasmania - 50.9% Labor
ACT - 59.9% Labor
Northern Territory - 52.9% Coalition

Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass - Liberal
Braddon - Liberal
Lyons - Liberal

Northern Territory
Lingiari - CLP
Solomon - CLP

South Australia
Adelaide - ALP
Boothby - Liberal
Hindmarsh - Liberal
Wakefield - ALP

Western Australia
Brand - ALP
Durack - WA Nationals
Hasluck - Liberal
O'Connor - WA Nationals
Swan - Liberal

Victoria
Aston - Liberal
Bendigo - ALP
Chisholm - ALP
Corangamite - Liberal
Deakin - Liberal
Dunkley - Liberal
Indi - Independent (lol)
La Trobe - Liberal
McEwen - ALP
Melbourne - Greens
Mallee - Liberal

Queensland
Blair - ALP
Bonner - LNP
Brisbane - LNP
Capricornia - ALP
Dawson - LNP
Fairfax - PUP
Flynn - LNP
Forde - LNP
Herbert - LNP
Longman - LNP
Moreton - LNP
Petrie - LNP

New South Wales
Banks - Liberal
Barton - ALP
Bennelong - Liberal
Dobell - Liberal
Eden-Monaro - ALP
Greenway - Liberal
Kingsford Smith - Liberal
Lindsay - Liberal
Macquarie - Liberal
McMahon - ALP
Page - National
Parramatta - Liberal
Reid - Liberal
Robertson - Liberal
Werriwa - Liberal

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Safest Seat - Murray, VIC
Closest Seat - McMahon, NSW
Highest Swing - Lyons, TAS (on traditional terms)
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2010. You may predict 'none'): Fairfax if it counts

Updated. Feel less optimistic than I did a few days back.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'll make the safest of predictions.  There will be an election on Saturday.

[morgieb]

I'll make the safest of predictions.  There will be an election on Saturday.

LOL.