Hillary a shoo-in for the nomination?

[Michael Z]

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http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=615705

An extract from an article I found in the Independent. Of course it's very early days, but that shouldn't stop us from speculating; is Hillary Clinton a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination in 2008? The article underlines the view that she's been trying to dismantle her polarising image (even though being a polarising figure didn't stop GWB winning two consecutive elections). Evan Bayh and Mark Warner look like better candidates IMHO, but would they be able to beat Hillary? Can any prospective Dem candidate?

[Moooooo]

Biden is just sucking on Hillary's tit hoping it will land him a spot on the ticket as VP ifshe wins the primary.

[Michael Z]

Biden is just sucking on Hillary's tit hoping it will land him a spot on the ticket as VP is she wins the primary.

Yeah, good point. Or maybe a spot in the Cabinet as Secretary of State. I can't really see Biden as a VP candidate though, Bayh or Richardson sound far more feasible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When Biden stole a line from Neil Kinnock his days as a possible President were over

[Defarge]

Nope, that's just for the moment.  The party realizes that she's unlectable, we'll end up nominating someone else.

[Keystone Phil]

Not a shoo-in but likely.

[AuH2O]

I must admit, 2008 is shaping up to be the most interesting Presidential season in quite a long time. Neither party has a lock, with Hillary being the most likely of anyone-- but even that is tenuous. Usually there is an incumbent of some kind.

Given that, how can you hate on Dick Cheney if you love politics?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyone declaring the nomination battle a fore-gone conclusion is smoking crack.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Biden knows that Hillary has the ability to raise enormous sums of money--with ease.

She has the second largest Democrat PAC.

Many influential Dems owe her--bigtime.

She has Bill in her corner.

She has the nomination!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden knows that Hillary has the ability to raise enormous sums of money--with ease.

She has the second largest Democrat PAC.

Many influential Dems owe her--bigtime.

She has Bill in her corner.

She has the nomination!

You mean like Howard Dean had the nomination in early January 2004? Sorry, it doesn't work that way.  Maybe all of the Republican primaries are dull, but lots of Democratic primaries like 1968, 1988, 2004 have been interesting.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Kerry's opening of his (or his wife's) wallet, had alot more to do with the nomination process getting interesting.  He swamped Dean in fundraising, right at the time whemn people begin to pay attention to the campaign.

[Moooooo]

There was alot of reasons Dean came up short and Kerry pulled out the win in Iowa.

1.) Gephardt and Dean began attacking each other in political ads and during speeches, etc. I think this "attack mode" made Dean lose some support. Those attacks sparked people into taking another look at Kerry and Edwards who were talking issues whereas Dean was constantly on the defensive, attempting to fight off Gephardts' attacks.

2.) Dean was not playing well at all in the Iowa media. He was frequently shown snapping at reporters and making combative statements. He lost his temper with a group of journalists and also with a protester who pressed him on Social Security issues. Dean's tone combined with the Gephardt squabbling weren't positive.

3.) Governor Vilsack, a very popular man amongst Iowa Democrats endorsed Kerry. The Des Moines Register endorsed Edwards. These endorsements shifted many toward Kerry and Edwards.

4.) . A consensus was developing within the party that we needed a "hero" to counter the militarism of Bush and the Republicans and the voters in Iowa decided on Kerry and the Democrats across the nation followed.

[Siege40]

If they want to win they won't.

Siege

[Frodo]

not necessarilly a shoo-in, but she is the heavy favorite in the upcoming 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses.  the fact of the matter is, she faces two potentially strong challengers from both wings of the Democratic Party -Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh from the established, centrist, corporation-friendly, DLC wing; and Wisconsin Sen. Russell Feingold from the insurgent, more liberal, populist, DFA/PDA wing.  in any case, i do not see any governors who look as if they have a very strong chance of actually seriously contesting the nomination with either of these three heavy-weights, though Mark Warner has been mentioned as being the most likely of all the governors considering vying for the nomination.  but, he has none of Bill Clinton's charisma or people-skills that enabled him to win the presidency in 1992 and keep it in 1996.  he therefore will not be the incarnation of Bubba, and hence, not a serious contender.     

[ian]

Yes, she is a shoo-in.

[NHPolitico]

Yes, if she wants it, it's hers.  She'll raise $200M for her primary campaign in 2008. She'll blow her opponents out of the water.

[cwelsch]

not necessarilly a shoo-in, but she is the heavy favorite in the upcoming 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses.  the fact of the matter is, she faces two potentially strong challengers from both wings of the Democratic Party -Indiana Sen. Evan Baye from the established, centrist, corporatist, DLC wing; and Wisconsin Sen. Russell Feingold from the insurgent, more liberal, populist, DFA/PDA wing.  in any case, i do not see any governors who look as if they have a very strong chance of actually seriously contesting the nomination with either of these three heavy-weights, though Mark Warner has been mentioned as being the most likely of all the governors considering vying for the nomination.  but, he has none of Bill Clinton's charisma or people-skills that enabled him to win the presidency in 1992 and keep it in 1996.  he therefore will not be the incarnation of Bubba, and hence, not a serious contender.     

This is a tangent, but corporatist is a long-standing word with its own political and philosophical tradition.  It is not capitalist or business-oriented, and actually stems from Mussolini.  It is popular in Scandinavian and Latin American countries.  It's a method of controlling and incorporating various elements of society and their interactions with government and policy.  Instead of the American system of free interest groups that try to lobby the public, legislators or bureaucrats by whatever legal means available, corporatism uses a special government liaision to centralize the process.  All of the environmental-related groups would work with one government agency, while the safety-, industry- or crime-related groups would work with their own government agencies (as an example).  In this way, the groups are licensed and managed.

It's not about business.  Maybe instead of saying 'corporatist' like an ideology or philosophy you should say 'business-friendly' or c'orporation-friendly.'

[dazzleman]

I can tell that Hillary assumes she's a shoo-in for the nomination by her campaign strategy.

When fighting for a nomination, a candidate shores up the base first, in order to win enough support for the nomination, then moves to the middle in order to gain support for the general election.

Hillary is already moving to the middle, almost 4 years before the election.  She is already fighting the general election, which leads me to believe that she thinks she has the nomination sewn up.

At this point, she is not pandering to that awful crowd that looks to her as a patron saint, her dreadful base.  She assumes that their devotion to her is so great that they will stick with her even as she takes on the necessary fake centrist positions in order to hoodwink enough people into voting for her.  And it just might work.

[Akno21]

4.) . A consensus was developing within the party that we needed a "hero" to counter the militarism of Bush and the Republicans and the voters in Iowa decided on Kerry and the Democrats across the nation followed.

He also had that reunion with Rassman (guy he saved in Vietnam) a few days before the caucus. It's still amazing to me that Kerry won because he was the, according to the voters, toughest and most electable candidate.

Hillary is no lock at this point. She runs the risk of losing her liberal base to Feingold, while having a lot of centrists that she's pandering to end up supporting someone else.

On a similar note, what do you call someone who's not a liberal or a moderate? Mainstream?

[phk]

4.) . A consensus was developing within the party that we needed a "hero" to counter the militarism of Bush and the Republicans and the voters in Iowa decided on Kerry and the Democrats across the nation followed.

He also had that reunion with Rassman (guy he saved in Vietnam) a few days before the caucus. It's still amazing to me that Kerry won because he was the, according to the voters, toughest and most electable candidate.

Hillary is no lock at this point. She runs the risk of losing her liberal base to Feingold, while having a lot of centrists that she's pandering to end up supporting someone else.

On a similar note, what do you call someone who's not a liberal or a moderate? Mainstream?

liberal-leaning populist or populist-leaning liberal.

Sometimes with the word "moderate" tagged on the front of it.