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Author Topic: Well, if you had any doubts, put em' away. She's in.  (Read 12590 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2006, 02:20:03 pm »

There's no way it'll be as late as mid-April '08 for either party, given how many states have been moving up their primaries to February in recent years.  I fully expect that we'll know who the nominees are by the end of February '08.  That doesn't mean that all the other candidates will have dropped out by then.  But we'll be able to say with at least 90% confidence who the nominees will be by then, and there will be a few candidates staying in the race, despite the fact that the outcome is pretty much a foregone conclusion.  (As in '04, when Edwards stayed in the race a couple of weeks beyond the point at which it was blazingly obvious that Kerry was going to win.)

Now, this is not to say that there won't be some periods of great uncertainty about who's going to win between now and then, perhaps extending as late as January or early Feb. '08.  But based on the experiences of both parties in '96, '00, and '04, there are now so many primaries being held in so many states in so few weeks in the early part of the year, that it's become inevitable that *someone* will build up enough momentum to put themselves on a path to the nomination very early.  The absolute latest I can see that happening is the first week of March.  I'd almost be willing to put money on that.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2006, 02:58:53 pm by Mr. Morden »Logged
DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #26 on: September 20, 2006, 02:51:27 pm »

I live it, this will ignite the GOP such much, I really don't see a Republican other than maybe Tancredo or George Allen that would lose to Hillary.

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
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Harry
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« Reply #27 on: September 20, 2006, 03:02:25 pm »

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
Romney and McCain would be favorites to beat Hillary, but Hillary could still win.

Guliani and especially Rice would lose because they would totally fail to light a fire in the base of the party.  Trust me, most everyone I know is Republican and they've confirmed this.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #28 on: September 20, 2006, 03:04:22 pm »

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
Romney and McCain would be favorites to beat Hillary, but Hillary could still win.

Guliani and especially Rice would lose because they would totally fail to light a fire in the base of the party.  Trust me, most everyone I know is Republican and they've confirmed this.

In a general, Guillani is certainly more conservative than Hillary
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tweed
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« Reply #29 on: September 20, 2006, 03:08:13 pm »

I think that only Gore or Feingold can beat here by energizing the anti-war left.

And we all know how incompetent McAuliffe is, not that it matters, but just food for thought.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #30 on: September 20, 2006, 03:12:20 pm »

And we all know how incompetent McAuliffe is, not that it matters, but just food for thought.

Hillary could neutralize that by making sure that her principal opponent (whoever that turns out to be) hires Bob Shrum.  Smiley
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Harry
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« Reply #31 on: September 20, 2006, 03:28:45 pm »

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
Romney and McCain would be favorites to beat Hillary, but Hillary could still win.

Guliani and especially Rice would lose because they would totally fail to light a fire in the base of the party.  Trust me, most everyone I know is Republican and they've confirmed this.

In a general, Guillani is certainly more conservative than Hillary

The Fundies will stay home or vote third party rather than vote for a pro-choice and pro-gay moderate-to-liberal New Englander.  If Hillary were the nominee, some thinking ones (most Fundies don't think too deeply) might throw a vote toward Guliani to keep out Hillary, but most will stick with their convictions.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #32 on: September 20, 2006, 03:32:21 pm »

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
Romney and McCain would be favorites to beat Hillary, but Hillary could still win.

Guliani and especially Rice would lose because they would totally fail to light a fire in the base of the party.  Trust me, most everyone I know is Republican and they've confirmed this.

In a general, Guillani is certainly more conservative than Hillary

The Fundies will stay home or vote third party rather than vote for a pro-choice and pro-gay moderate-to-liberal New Englander.  If Hillary were the nominee, some thinking ones (most Fundies don't think too deeply) might throw a vote toward Guliani to keep out Hillary, but most will stick with their convictions.

I don't think Guilliani is seen as a New Englander

He's from NY, he lives in NYC, he lives less than half an hour from me and I sure as hell don't consider myself a New Englander
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Colin
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« Reply #33 on: September 20, 2006, 05:10:45 pm »

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
Romney and McCain would be favorites to beat Hillary, but Hillary could still win.

Guliani and especially Rice would lose because they would totally fail to light a fire in the base of the party.  Trust me, most everyone I know is Republican and they've confirmed this.

In a general, Guillani is certainly more conservative than Hillary

The Fundies will stay home or vote third party rather than vote for a pro-choice and pro-gay moderate-to-liberal New Englander.  If Hillary were the nominee, some thinking ones (most Fundies don't think too deeply) might throw a vote toward Guliani to keep out Hillary, but most will stick with their convictions.

I would actually think that alot of the social conservative block would turn out as would alot of the Republican base. Hillary has been villified by the Republican Party and is a demon of the right since HillaryCare. I think that even with a Giuliani candidacy not only could he appeal to moderates but if Hillary is his opponent he would get alot of the conservative, and especially social conservative vote, since he's not Hillary Clinton and the spectre of her as President would be worse in their minds.
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Reignman
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« Reply #34 on: September 20, 2006, 05:17:33 pm »

Good lord, Barack Obama or Al Gore are probably the only two Democrats that could take her down.

Let's hope at least one of them gets in this race or we are doomed.

I don't literally agree with this, but I definitely agree with the sentiment.
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Harry
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« Reply #35 on: September 20, 2006, 10:24:39 pm »

Romney, McCain, Guilliani, Rice, etc. would destroy Hillary
Romney and McCain would be favorites to beat Hillary, but Hillary could still win.

Guliani and especially Rice would lose because they would totally fail to light a fire in the base of the party.  Trust me, most everyone I know is Republican and they've confirmed this.

In a general, Guillani is certainly more conservative than Hillary

The Fundies will stay home or vote third party rather than vote for a pro-choice and pro-gay moderate-to-liberal New Englander.  If Hillary were the nominee, some thinking ones (most Fundies don't think too deeply) might throw a vote toward Guliani to keep out Hillary, but most will stick with their convictions.

I would actually think that alot of the social conservative block would turn out as would alot of the Republican base. Hillary has been villified by the Republican Party and is a demon of the right since HillaryCare. I think that even with a Giuliani candidacy not only could he appeal to moderates but if Hillary is his opponent he would get alot of the conservative, and especially social conservative vote, since he's not Hillary Clinton and the spectre of her as President would be worse in their minds.

This isn't what I've been told firsthand.  I know a lot of fundies, and they all say they won't vote for Guliani (or anyone who is pro-choice)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #36 on: September 21, 2006, 01:21:07 am »

Let's get the ball rolling!!  I'm ready to roll up my sleeves and get down and dirty for some nasty mudslinging.  I will probably actively campaign for Mark Warner, somewhat active for John Kerry, and mostly passive for Hillary Clinton.

So, since tomorrow is Wednesday, September 20, 2006, the 2008 Presidential Campaign officially begins in 7 weeks on Wednesday, November 8, 2006, Eastern Standard Time, when the last poll in Hawaii or Alaska closes.

If its really true that Hillary is running, I fly over to the US as soon as I can to personally campaign for Mark Warner... Wink
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Citizen James
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« Reply #37 on: September 21, 2006, 01:57:22 am »

I seem to recall Dean being a shoe-in back in '03.  Things change. 

If she wins the nomination I will leave the Democratic party just as I left the Republican party in 2000 over to corination of Bush.  Probably go green.  Or maybe Libertarian if the reformers take control and get their act together.  Royalty has no place in America.

I would only support her in the general reluctantly in dire circumstances *cough*Jeb*cough*foundingfathersstartspinningintheirgraves*cough* *Hack*cough*sanatorium*cough*theocrats*cough*

Nasty cold aside, my money's still on Warner. 
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2010, 01:42:08 pm »

Good lord, Barack Obama or Al Gore are probably the only two Democrats that could take her down.

Let's hope at least one of them gets in this race or we are doomed.

Obama definitely isn't running, and it's likely that Gore won't either. Edwards could take her down, and some others might be able to as well.

LOL
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #39 on: September 27, 2010, 05:12:40 am »

Right now this is shaping up to be Hillary vs. Gore or Hillary vs. Feingold.  Should Gore run, he will win the nomination.  Feingold will only be a contender if Gore does not run.  Edwards comes in second as anti-Hillary.

Mark Warner has no chance.  He is unable to inspire passion in the Kossites and the argument that "he's the most electable" never goes down well with them.  He is not attractive or charismatic and sounds too much like this guy: http://www.oddtodd.com/index2.html  
If the war in Iraq suddenly ended and it ceased to be an issue, then he might have a chance, but right now anti-war is all the Dems want to hear.

In the end, I predict that it'll come down to a showdown between Hillary and Feingold / Gore.  The Republican nominee will be either Giuliani or Romney.  Bank on it.

Vander Blubb? More like Vander Flub. Amirite?
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