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Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: March 03, 2005, 12:46:53 pm »

Quick point: Kerry isn't an Irish Catholic (don't be fooled by the name) and certainly isn't an ethnic politician.
He comes off as more WASPish than a WASP like Bush, hence his poor preformance with Catholic voters and his impressive preformance with mainline Protestants.

Ethnic voters (and they're usually Catholic) are importent to both parties because on the one hand they are overwhelmingly Democratic by registration etc, but on the other hand they are usually somewhat socially conservative and don't have any problems with splitting their tickets (take a look at some of the statewide races in PA last year if you don't believe me).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2005, 01:16:18 pm »

Quick question:  From what you have seen, do you think there is any anti-Catholicism here in America?

Yes, it's just not as overt as it was. Think about how many people who voted against Kennedy in '60 because he was a Catholic are still alive now. Remember that most of the people who voted against him on sectarian grounds will have had children.
Sad fact is that bigotry (against any group) never entirely goes away. It just gets less blatent.

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Compared to the '60's when the Tories held working class seats in Liverpool and Glasgow due to the orange (ie: anti catholic) vote and a visit by the Pope to Liverpool had to be cancelled because Liverpool City Council effectivly threatend riots, then yes it's not a big deal.

But in a more general sense, yes. There was all that fuss over Kelly becoming Education Secretary, and the bizarre incedent when the media tried to pry into Blair's religious beliefs.
Sectarianism still causes problems in Glasgow (especially Rangers v Celtic) and the Scottish Executive has been trying to stamp that out, without much sucess sadly.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2005, 04:00:19 pm »

Time to bash on the Jewish Catholics?

Who says I'm bashing anyone?

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And? I were pointing out that despite the name, Kerry is not an Irish Catholic.
And the fact that he comes across as a WASP (even though he isn't) is pretty indisputable IMO.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2005, 04:05:23 pm »

Well, I guess Smith only got 92% in South Carolina. Guess there was good Catholic turnout there. ha.

Oh dear. Someone knows less than he likes to let on. Go find out how many people actually voted in SC prior to the '40's...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2005, 04:09:33 pm »

You're all complaining about how the 3rd I believe  (and the first in 44 years) non WASP major party candidate in US history comes across as a WASP? That's pretty laughable.

Dukakis is an English name? Good Lord I learn something new every day.

Seriously though, the term WASP implies a certain amount of East Coast establishment-ness. I don't class LBJ or Bubba as WASP's, and neither did the electorate.

Like it or not Kerry came across as the most WASPish candidate since Bush sr.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2005, 04:46:09 pm »

So basically you're biased against the north-east? I think the north-east has had enough bashing from Republicans for political reasons.

No, I'm not.
Run a working class ethnic Catholic from Massachusetts or Rhode Island and I think they'd do pretty well (remember that Tip's approval rating was higher than Reagan's when he retired in '86), run someone who comes across as a WASP though...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2005, 03:48:54 am »

oh and Al, just exactly what percentage of the population would you estimate supports Paisley? Is there any part of the country where a majority of people would be big fans of him? Is he overall perceived as semi-credible or just a huge loon? Scary that people like Pat Robertson are considered semi-credible here, and also scary is Paisley is considered the same in the UK.

Paisley is a hell of a lot worse than pretty much any nutter you have in the U.S.

As for support, in the mainland he's regarded by most people as a nutter (although I'd say something like 5% like him) but in Northern Ireland... well that's when things get scary.

The DUP is the largest political party in Northern Ireland nowadays. It won the Assembly Elections and the Euro Elections comfertably. It will probably win the Westminster and Local Elections in NI this year as well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2005, 04:14:32 pm »

Two elections makes "times"?

One problem with the internet and all that is that it causes us all to lose our perspective at times.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2005, 04:27:04 pm »

Slight problem: where the two parties are strongest at Congressional level isn't the same as at Presidential level. Similer, yes. The same? No.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2005, 04:31:48 pm »

I would actually argue that gerrymanders just distort the figures.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2005, 04:29:55 am »

I would actually argue that gerrymanders just distort the figures.

I would disagree.  For example, Maryland gerrymanders are balanced out by Pennsylvania gerrymanders.

In the end, it comes out to being fairly close, though not entirely accurate.

But as House and Senate elections have started to revolve more around national issues rather than local ones, the numbers have shown much more direct causality than say in the 1980s for example.

Gerrymandering probably doesn't distort the overall summary figures a great deal, but it massivily distorts where those numbers are coming from making any comparision between Presidential and Congressional numbers somewhat meaningless.
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