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Author Topic: NC: Public Policy Polling: Hagan leads GOP by 12-17 points, no clear leader in GOP primary with Foxx out  (Read 2302 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 10, 2013, 01:03:49 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-09-09

Summary: D: 50%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2013, 01:05:11 pm »

GOP primary part:

Quote
Leading the way at that 13% mark is Phil Berger. He's followed by Thom Tillis at 12%, Jim Cain at 11%, Heather Grant at 8%, Greg Brannon at 6%, Mark Harris at 5%, and Lynn Wheeler at 2%. Most Republicans in the state want someone other than Tillis, the most significant announced candidate, to be their standard bearer. But there continues to be little consensus about who that alternative should be.

General election:

Quote
At this point it doesn't matter who the Republicans put forward though- Kay Hagan has a wide lead over all of them. She's up 12 on Heather Grant at 48/36, 13 on Jim Cain and Lynn Wheeler at 50/37 and 48/35 respectively, 14 on Mark Harris at 50/36, 15 on Thom Tillis at 51/36, 16 on Greg Brannon at 52/36, and 17 on Phil Berger at 53/36. Hagan is up by at least 16 points with independents in every match up.

Despite the good sized leads for Hagan at this point there's still strong reason to think this will be a close race.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2013, 03:50:57 pm »

Dominating
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2013, 03:54:09 pm »

Wow, this is quite horrible for R's. On top of that, look at the massive unfavorable % among primary candidates, even from Romney voters! I do have to question the Obama approval rating, with an average of Disapprove + 7, why is this Disapprove + 1? With a state 6 points more conservative than the nation?

It also appears to me in the cross tabs that many Mitt Romney voters (about 20%) are undecided who to vote for, while (about 5%) of Barack Obama voters are undecided. So this could have quite the advantage right now. I'm still surprised that she's leading by this much.



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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2013, 04:01:50 pm »

Between the party identification and the 2012 vote of this sample, it seems a bit D-friendly to me.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2013, 04:02:46 pm »

This is kind of a D-Friendly poll, though I don't doubt Hagan is ahead of a dreadful field. STOP TILLIS!
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2013, 04:09:17 pm »

Just throwing this out there, but polling (including PPP) fairly consistently showed Dole ahead of her rivals until about four months before the election.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2013, 04:27:19 pm »

With Georgia looking to go democratic and Walsh looking to jump into MnT, the Dems are looking to keep their majority status.
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Scott
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2013, 04:33:44 pm »

With Georgia looking to go democratic and Walsh looking to jump into MnT, the Dems are looking to keep their majority status.

That sounds way overconfident.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2013, 05:01:42 pm »

I didn't say we are gonna win everyone of the tossups but keeping our own it is more probable. Like Tennant or Walsh will be fine for me.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2013, 05:27:37 pm »

With Georgia looking to go democratic and Walsh looking to jump into MnT, the Dems are looking to keep their majority status.

Georgia's "looking" to go democratic? The candidates haven't even developed yet (on the republican side) and we have more than a year in between.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2013, 04:40:33 pm »

Not surprising Hagan is ahead big considering how weak the GOP field is in the state. The GOP's path to a majority has always been simple, SD-WV-MT-AR-AK-LA. But NC was always a good "other option" for them in case Begich or Landrieu's personal popularity carried them through. Without that, they're stuck hoping for unlikely upsets in MI/IA/CO/MN.
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opebo
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2013, 04:49:03 pm »

One wonders if these very large margins might be an early sign of the anticipated GOP disgust vis-a-vis that party's evisceration of North Carolina... which might bode very well for the presidential race in 2016. 
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2013, 04:56:50 pm »

One wonders if these very large margins might be an early sign of the anticipated GOP disgust vis-a-vis that party's evisceration of North Carolina... which might bode very well for the presidential race in 2016. 

It certainly is. The two main candidates, Tillis and Berger, are the GOP leaders of the state assembly. You can't really get any more toxic than them at this point.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2013, 05:26:14 pm »

Hangangel eviscerating ur faves. We are all BlessT to have her.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2013, 05:36:01 pm »

Just throwing this out there, but polling (including PPP) fairly consistently showed Dole ahead of her rivals until about four months before the election.

That's true, and North Carolina has had a lot of One Term Senators (John Edwards, Lauch Faircloth, Liz Dole, Terry Sanford) as of recent.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2013, 05:48:57 pm »

Just throwing this out there, but polling (including PPP) fairly consistently showed Dole ahead of her rivals until about four months before the election.

That's true, and North Carolina has had a lot of One Term Senators (John Edwards, Lauch Faircloth, Liz Dole, Terry Sanford) as of recent.
John Edwards ran for VP the same year he would've run for re-election. He probably would've won again had he run for senate in 2004.
Liddy Dole made a huge gaffe late in the campaign and suffered from Barack Obama's reverse coatails in 2008.
Terry Sanford ran for re-election at the age of 75 and stopped campaigning for all of October because of a
heart surgery.
Launch Faircloth lost because I don't know. His defeat actually helps your point.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2013, 08:29:05 pm »

Lucky for Hagan, the Republican field is so pathetic because the Republicans in the general assembly has poisoned the well so that decent Republican candidates don't want to jump in.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2013, 08:32:33 pm by illegaloperation »Logged
Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2013, 10:04:38 pm »

Just throwing this out there, but polling (including PPP) fairly consistently showed Dole ahead of her rivals until about four months before the election.

That's true, and North Carolina has had a lot of One Term Senators (John Edwards, Lauch Faircloth, Liz Dole, Terry Sanford) as of recent.
John Edwards ran for VP the same year he would've run for re-election. He probably would've won again had he run for senate in 2004.
Liddy Dole made a huge gaffe late in the campaign and suffered from Barack Obama's reverse coatails in 2008.
Terry Sanford ran for re-election at the age of 75 and stopped campaigning for all of October because of a
heart surgery.
Launch Faircloth lost because I don't know. His defeat actually helps your point.

Ah yes, you are correct. It is all dependent what happens with the GOP field. Hagan's numbers will probably drop when people are paying attention, the only question is whether she can slip by like her fellow North Carolina Senator Dick Burr.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2013, 10:23:01 pm »

Just throwing this out there, but polling (including PPP) fairly consistently showed Dole ahead of her rivals until about four months before the election.

That's true, and North Carolina has had a lot of One Term Senators (John Edwards, Lauch Faircloth, Liz Dole, Terry Sanford) as of recent.
John Edwards ran for VP the same year he would've run for re-election. He probably would've won again had he run for senate in 2004.
Liddy Dole made a huge gaffe late in the campaign and suffered from Barack Obama's reverse coatails in 2008.
Terry Sanford ran for re-election at the age of 75 and stopped campaigning for all of October because of a
heart surgery.
Launch Faircloth lost because I don't know. His defeat actually helps your point.

Ah yes, you are correct. It is all dependent what happens with the GOP field. Hagan's numbers will probably drop when people are paying attention, the only question is whether she can slip by like her fellow North Carolina Senator Dick Burr.

Problem about people paying attention, is that they'll pay attention to Tillis/Berger/some guy as well. And most won't like what they see.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2013, 12:35:41 am »

Just throwing this out there, but polling (including PPP) fairly consistently showed Dole ahead of her rivals until about four months before the election.

That's true, and North Carolina has had a lot of One Term Senators (John Edwards, Lauch Faircloth, Liz Dole, Terry Sanford) as of recent.
John Edwards ran for VP the same year he would've run for re-election. He probably would've won again had he run for senate in 2004.
Liddy Dole made a huge gaffe late in the campaign and suffered from Barack Obama's reverse coatails in 2008.
Terry Sanford ran for re-election at the age of 75 and stopped campaigning for all of October because of a
heart surgery.
Launch Faircloth lost because I don't know. His defeat actually helps your point.

Ah yes, you are correct. It is all dependent what happens with the GOP field. Hagan's numbers will probably drop when people are paying attention, the only question is whether she can slip by like her fellow North Carolina Senator Dick Burr.

Problem about people paying attention, is that they'll pay attention to Tillis/Berger/some guy as well. And most won't like what they see.

That's already the case. Tillis' numbers are already garbage. The North Carolina bench, as it is now, is a disaster. They blew their best guy on a race where he's now kind of in a lose lose scenario with no way out.
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