MI: EPIC/MRA: Snyder with 8-point lead

[krazen1211]

Link

Snyder 44
Schauer 36


Peters 38
Land 37


Great news! The union buster Snyder is preventing Michigan from being ravaged by the liberals who ravaged Detroit.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?type=src&source_id=55

[NewYorkExpress]

The Senate numbers are believable... however there's no way Snyder is up by eight points.

I'd say Snyder is more likely up by two to three points at this juncture.

[dmmidmi]

To be honest, both are believable. The Senate race hasn't gotten much, if any, significant coverage since Mike Rogers and Justin Amash opted out of the race.

Mark Schauer hasn't been making headlines at all, whereas The Nerd has been all over the news for Medicaid expansion (something that I'm guessing will undoubtedly boost his approval ratings) and taking a high-profile stance in the Detroit bankruptcy processes. It'll be interesting to see if the internet sales tax issue impacts his approvals. My guess is that it won't, but it's fascinating to see a bunch of Republican state legislators advocate for this.

The 36% who say they'll be voting for Schauer pretty clearly represents the 36% who won't vote for The Nerd under any set of circumstances, because his campaign has been all but invisible since announcing his intention to run for Governor.

[PolitiJunkie]

EPIC MRA has been notoriously bad. Literally not worth even acknowledging. And Peters only ahead of Land by 1 point? Give me a break.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks biased but too early to even tell.

[krazen1211]

For the record, in late October 2012 both Epic-MRA and PPP had the same margin in the 2012 election.

[publicunofficial]

Backs up the MIRSNews poll, I guess.

Two illegitimate polls doesn't make a legitimate one. It just means you have two bad polls.

[Dave from Michigan]

This poll could be accurate, people seem to think Snyder will be easy to beat but I disagree. This race is probably at best gossip right now. I'll be voting Democrat but would not be surprised to see Snyder win. Although there are a lot of undecided voters still.

[free my dawg]

For the record, in late October 2012 both Epic-MRA and PPP had the same margin in the 2012 election.

Hell, Silver himself had the both of them about even as far as accuracy went. The poll oversamples Reps a hair, so I think it's closer to +4.

[LeBron]

That's quite a commanding lead especially since another poll shows Snyder up by 14. I think it's time Cook and Sabato make two major changes just from what we've seen today with Michigan going to the lean R column while Ohio is moved to a tossup. A few of their other predictions are kind of off and misleading to because they have Georgia and Kansas still as safe R and Wisconsin as likely R.

Snyder could still lose here if Schauer really steps up his game, but Snyder does a nice sized advantage here, blue state or not.

[IceSpear]

For the record, in late October 2012 both Epic-MRA and PPP had the same margin in the 2012 election.

And in every other EPIC-MRA poll before late October, their margins were hugely off in favor of Romney/Hoekstra.

I'll wait for a legitimate poll. Michigan has the worst state specific pollsters in the entire country.

[Gass3268]

Joke Poll!

[krazen1211]

For the record, in late October 2012 both Epic-MRA and PPP had the same margin in the 2012 election.

And in every other EPIC-MRA poll before late October, their margins were hugely off in favor of Romney/Hoekstra.

I'll wait for a legitimate poll. Michigan has the worst state specific pollsters in the entire country.

Lol, no.


Link

Link

[IceSpear]

Oh, I just checked. I accidentally confused them with those 2 other pollsters (Mitchell Research and Baydoun/Foster) which were even worse than EPIC-MRA. But EPIC-MRA is still awful.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mi/michigan_senate_hoekstra_vs_stabenow-1817.html

If you believe Hoekstra was ever within 2 points of Stabenow and Romney was ever leading in Michigan, I have a bridge to sell you.

[free my dawg]

That's quite a commanding lead especially since another poll shows Snyder up by 14. I think it's time Cook and Sabato make two major changes just from what we've seen today with Michigan going to the lean R column while Ohio is moved to a tossup. A few of their other predictions are kind of off and misleading to because they have Georgia and Kansas still as safe R and Wisconsin as likely R.

Snyder could still lose here if Schauer really steps up his game, but Snyder does a nice sized advantage here, blue state or not.
[/quote

The Snyder +14 poll is a sh*te poll. Mitchell Research turned out to be behind that one. I'm not gonna lie, I actually trust EPIC-MRA, so I'm actually getting a little worried.

[ElectionsGuy]

So basically Snyder's favored but still a toss-up?

[krazen1211]

Oh, I just checked. I accidentally confused them with those 2 other pollsters (Mitchell Research and Baydoun/Foster) which were even worse than EPIC-MRA. But EPIC-MRA is still awful.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mi/michigan_senate_hoekstra_vs_stabenow-1817.html

If you believe Hoekstra was ever within 2 points of Stabenow and Romney was ever leading in Michigan, I have a bridge to sell you.

PPP (D)   12/3 - 12/6   1224 RV   45   44   Stabenow +1

[dmmidmi]

So basically Snyder's favored but still a toss-up?

Snyder's favored, and I wouldn't be surprised if this went to Lean R soon. At this point, I think it'd be more surprised if he lost, than if he won.

Epic-MRA may be awful, but this actually doesn't sound too far off.

[IceSpear]

Oh, I just checked. I accidentally confused them with those 2 other pollsters (Mitchell Research and Baydoun/Foster) which were even worse than EPIC-MRA. But EPIC-MRA is still awful.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mi/michigan_senate_hoekstra_vs_stabenow-1817.html

If you believe Hoekstra was ever within 2 points of Stabenow and Romney was ever leading in Michigan, I have a bridge to sell you.

PPP (D)   12/3 - 12/6   1224 RV   45   44   Stabenow +1

So PPP sucks at polling Michigan too. What's your point?

Every single Michigan poll was way too favorable to Republicans (including PPP), even at the very end. My point was that the unholy trinity of Mitchell, Baydoun, and EPIC were the worst offenders in 2012. I still remember all the "Romney ahead in Michigan!!!11!!" narrative setting these crap pollsters were doing, and I'm not going to give them a free pass and take whatever they say as gospel.

Anyway, I'm not denying the race is probably Tilt R at this point. Just saying people should take their polls with a pillar of salt.

[Miles]

Oh, I just checked. I accidentally confused them with those 2 other pollsters (Mitchell Research and Baydoun/Foster) which were even worse than EPIC-MRA. But EPIC-MRA is still awful.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mi/michigan_senate_hoekstra_vs_stabenow-1817.html

If you believe Hoekstra was ever within 2 points of Stabenow and Romney was ever leading in Michigan, I have a bridge to sell you.

PPP (D)   12/3 - 12/6   1224 RV   45   44   Stabenow +1

There were a few other pollsters, including EPIC, showing the race within 2 points:

Mitchell Research   8/23 - 8/23   1277 LV   44   45   Hoekstra +1
Baydoun/Foster (D)   8/16 - 8/16   1733 LV   46   48   Hoekstra +2
EPIC-MRA   2/12 - 2/17   600 LV   44   42   Stabenow +2

I can't imagine why you chose to single out PPP and ignore the others...

[pbrower2a]

This is relevant:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A year before the election he is in the area of 44% approval which on its own gives him a 50% chance of winning re-election.  But that could be very close to his ceiling. The severe negative ratings must go down before he has a strong chance at re-election. His likely opponent simply is badly known in southeastern Michigan where the votes are. The unions will never forgive Rick Snyder for his promotion of Duty to Starve legislation and feminists will never forgive him for a harsh anti-abortion law.

...Barack Obama having only 39% approval in Michigan... ha, ha, ha!

[pbrower2a]

Here is a report on how single-state pollsters do in Michigan in contrast to those that operate in states other than Michigan as well as Michigan on the 2012 Presidential race:



Nate Silver has something here. Michigan has lots of  one-state pollsters, and most of them lean clearly R. If those pollsters were right, then we would have never gotten this result:

Michigan      total votes -- 4,743,887    margin 49,313        Obama/Biden  2,564,569 (54.06%)

Romney/Ryan 2,115,256  (44.59%)   

margin 49,313 (9.47% D)


others    64,062 (1.35%)

There really was no big late-season collapse by Romney. Polls in Michigan from May to late August by pollsters other than the forgettable "We Ask America" had President Obama getting winning Michigan by about 7%, and he won by about 2.5% more.

[IceSpear]

Here is a report on how single-state pollsters do in Michigan in contrast to those that operate in states other than Michigan as well as Michigan on the 2012 Presidential race:



Nate Silver has something here. Michigan has lots of  one-state pollsters, and most of them lean clearly R. If those pollsters were right, then we would have never gotten this result:

Michigan      total votes -- 4,743,887    margin 49,313        Obama/Biden  2,564,569 (54.06%)

Romney/Ryan 2,115,256  (44.59%)   

margin 49,313 (9.47% D)


others    64,062 (1.35%)

There really was no big late-season collapse by Romney. Polls in Michigan from May to late August by pollsters other than the forgettable "We Ask America" had President Obama getting winning Michigan by about 7%, and he won by about 2.5% more.

Thanks for this chart. I don't think any other state besides Michigan had such a discrepancy between their local pollsters and national pollsters.

[Tender Branson]

This poll is from September ...