PPP vs. Nate Silver and potentially cooked polls

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nate Silver getting 50/50 states right isn't that impressive at all. You would have gotten exactly the same result - with Florida as the only possible exception - by doing a simple average of all poll, something not exactly requiring great mathematical skill.

For all the complicated prediction models of political scientists, there is no way to get a more accurate result than a simple aggregate of the polls.

Exactly.  Nate Silver is overrated.  The notion that President Obama ever had over an 80% chance of winning is ridiculous.  Granted, he was reelected, but his chances were never that high.

I should point out that Nate Silver's rise to fame was based on a statistical model he did during the 2008 primaries that completely ignored polling and was based only on demographics...and was actually more accurate than ANY polling company.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The states that Silver nailed better than any pollster through his demographic model were North Carolina and Indiana.