NJ legislature

[a83192]

Do You think a Christie win this November in NJ would cause a small coattail effect  in the Legislature and cause republicans to take over at least the State  Senate ?
 
 Or do you think there will be more split ticket voting and more or less spare the Democrats?

[hurricanehink]

I would think that it would cause some split balloting, but with the Booker election in October, some disgruntled Democrats might just not vote in November, which could cause some coat tailing.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Probably a minor coattail effect like he had in 2009.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans will make gains, but not enough to take either house.

GOP + 2 in state Senate
+4 in Assembly

[LeBron]

Aside from it being an off-off election year, there's nothing wrong at all the Democratic controlled NJ Legislature has done to lose control of either house. If anything, a lot of bills they passed would have put them in an even better situation this year if Gov. Christie didn't veto so many of them.

Since Christie is still in the ballot though w/o Booker, I think NJ Republicans might get +2 in the lower house and the State Senate might actually remain the same at 24-16.

[Devils30]

The commission took the Democratic map and its pretty heavily gerrymandered toward incumbents.

[Rowan]

No incumbent Democrats will lose.

[hopper]

The commission took the Democratic map and its pretty heavily gerrymandered toward incumbents.

The proposed Republican map was even worse than the current Democratic Map. The NJ Dems really outsmarted the NJ R's in the 2001 redistricting of legislative seats. The NJ Dems had lost the 90's redistricting battle and the Republican Map was put into place for that decade.

[hopper]

No incumbent Democrats will lose.

I think State Senator Robert Gordon might lose since  he is in a purple district in Bergen County.

[Mr.Phips]

No incumbent Democrats will lose.

I think State Senator Robert Gordon might lose since  he is in a purple district in Bergen County.

Its not a purple district.  Even Corzine won it in 2009. 

You have to remember that all of these assembly Dems won in 2009 with the hugely unpopular Corzine leading the ticket.  Voters in New Jersey like Christie despite his party, not beacause of it.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No incumbent Democrats will lose.

I think State Senator Robert Gordon might lose since  he is in a purple district in Bergen County.

Its not a purple district.  Even Corzine won it in 2009. 

You have to remember that all of these assembly Dems won in 2009 with the hugely unpopular Corzine leading the ticket.  Voters in New Jersey like Christie despite his party, not beacause of it.

Christie will win this time by 300%-400% of his margin over Corzine last time.

That being said, most of this margin will be "Democrats for Christie" who will vote for him and their Dem State Senator, so I don't see too much of an impact.

[Keystone Phil]

I heard there was a poll showing Whelan up by ten in the 2nd. That was supposed to be the GOP's slam dunk pick up though, to be fair, the campaign still hasn't really heated up. No TV ads yet.

[hopper]

No incumbent Democrats will lose.

I think State Senator Robert Gordon might lose since  he is in a purple district in Bergen County.

Its not a purple district.  Even Corzine won it in 2009. 

You have to remember that all of these assembly Dems won in 2009 with the hugely unpopular Corzine leading the ticket.  Voters in New Jersey like Christie despite his party, not beacause of it.

Yeah but since then the district lines have changed it actually made the district more favorable to Republicans I believe. Even Paul Munshine of the Star Ledger said the R's blew that seat last midterm.

[hopper]

I heard there was a poll showing Whelan up by ten in the 2nd. That was supposed to be the GOP's slam dunk pick up though, to be fair, the campaign still hasn't really heated up. No TV ads yet.

Whelan isn't gonna lose unless the Mayor Of Atlantic City runs in a primary against him which I doubt. The Mayor of AC doesn't like Whalen despite them both being Democrats.

[cinyc]

Quinnipiac's poll indirectly asked about coattails.  Only 22% said that Christie backing a legislative candidate would make them more likely to vote for that candidate.  15% said it would make them less likely.  60% said it wouldn't make a difference.  That's better than Buono's numbers (10%/20%/67%), but still anemic.  Besides, most of the people who would be swayed by a Christie endorsement are Republicans.  Independents are 12%/14%/73%.

Coattails are overrated.

[Mogrovejo]

Can't post link, but a Rutgers state-wide poll on this was published.

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Agreed about coattails being overrated.

[MATTROSE94]

It's definitely possible, although there might be some ticket-splitting that will allow the Democrats to keep both houses of the NJ Legislature.