Minneapolis Mayor election, 2013

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thanks for the thread. First one on this. I considered making my own in the past, but never did because honestly this election doesn't interest me that much (none of the candidates particularly inspire me, and the above descriptions explain why.)

I disagree that Hodges is in any real way more liberal than Andrew, if anything she seems more likely to do things like piss off unions or cut city employee pensions if elected. I am glad that Schiff dropped out, I really disliked him and he seemed to have a chance. The candidates other than Hodges and Andrew all suck, and even Hodges I'm not too big on, due to the Schiff endorsement, and that she's a bit of a panderer, for example see the picture here while speaking to Somalis.

My initial planned vote was:

1-joke candidate
2-joke candidate
3-Andrew

But it might have to be:

1-joke candidate
2-Andrew
3-Hodges

since I really don't want to see anyone other than Andrew or Hodges get in. Not that either excites me, but a bland establishment DFL mayor is something Minneapolis certainly can handle.

I'd take that poll with a grain of salt though, in addition to the Star Tribune (not exactly the most stellar pollster to begin with) clearly not knowing how to do a useful poll with IRV the differences are so small MoE can easily account for it. My hunch says Andrew still pulls it off, since he has the right connections, money and machine to make sure the people he needs show up. For the same reason, I bet Cohen is WAY over polling.

Where you at by the way? I live in Whittier.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting thoughts on Hodges vs. Andrew.

You really think Hodges would jerk over unions and city employees? Even though she's endorsed by SEIU?

I don't think it's something that will happen, just that I could see. It's a hunch I get from her doing things like bragging about her "pension reform" in a StarTrib interview and the fact that she's basically Rybak's candidate and I know some of the unions got mad at Rybak recently. I don't have a problem with Rybak (hell I worked for his 2010 Gubernatorial campaign) but certain folks in progressive circles are just tired of him at least (see City Pages comments on the race.) The thing I do trust though is that Hodges won't try to push Michelle Yeoh's plans for "reform" on the education system as clearly so many of the other candidates do.

Also, why don't you like Shiff? I don't know much about him other than he's gay and he was against the stadium.

Classist, nanny statist, a bit of an ego, he struck me as the candidate most likely to be Bloomberg-esque. Basically think male Christine Quinn.

I'm smack in the middle of Uptown.

Ah, nice place. So I guess you have Frank Hornstein and Scott Dibble in the legislature?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think Rybak has made an actual endorsement, but it's known that Hodges is a close ally of his on the council. Mind you city politics can make this complicated, Hodges is also endorsed by Schiff, who was quite critical of Rybak, accusing him of manipulating statistics to support his claim that youth violence significantly dropped during his tenure (of course whether Schiff truly believed this or just did it raise publicity for his own campaign is not known.)

Rybak is not really an establishment guy if he was he'd probably be Governor now, remember he beat an establishment-ish incumbent in 2001. We basically have two establishments here, the state one is all behind Andrew, but the people in the city don't care about him, and Hodges has their support. Their interests aren't exactly opposed, so neither would be too upset if their candidate loses, but it does mean they won't be cooperating before November like they usually do.

As for Rybak not running again, I totally expected that. He clearly wanted just an upgrade to Governor and has already been in office for 12 years. He's probably tired of it and people are tired of him, the odds of him losing aren't impossible. Remember he's not exactly a progressive hero anymore, his strongest liberal credentials were that he was a vocal opponent of the Iraq War and personally attended/spoke at anti-war rallies, he supported gay marriage long before it was cool and he was an early supporter of Barack Obama's presidential campaign. He epitomizes 2006-2008 DailyKos-style liberalism well, but today he's kind of just generic D. And now that his record is being attacked as not so progressive, that would dampen enthusiasm. It's not likely he could be beat from the left, but imagine one of the right wing Democratic candidates running against him with silent Republican support and an unmotivated left...Rybak is probably still favored in all circumstances, but really I think most agree it's time for him to move on. Including Rybak himself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Could Fine pull it off?

Short answer: Probably not, but he should get more attention than he has.

Long answer: I've been seeing far more signs for him than any other candidate. Normally not the best measure, but consider that this is going to be a low turnout election and there's been a surprising lack of signs for Hodges or Andrew, and their support might be quite thin. Even though Fine is clearly on the right wing of Minneapolis politics, the fact that he's not a Santorum-like socon and is anti-tax without sounding like a Tea Party crazy this might be a massive blow for him. It seems to be a populist-esque campaign against the establishment and machines and all that. I'd be surprised if he gets any of his agenda accomplished though if elected, especially as the mayor is mostly just a city council member who has some additional ceremonial duties and does appointments.

However even if he pulls off a plurality of first preferences, I bet the later prefs will kill him. And there's probably a >50% chance the first pref winner will not be the actual winner.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Results/MunicipalRaces/6?districtid=43000

Though it can't be tabulated with all the info we're given, I'd say Hodges has most certainly won.

I'm quite fascinated by ward and precinct breakdowns but that'll have to wait till tomorrow.

Also my incumbent councilwoman lost.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yay! Hodges won! (:

So the city council there has 12 Democrats and 1 Green!

Cam Gordon is kind of a GINO. He's on the right wing of the council arguably and isn't any more left than your average Minneapolis Democrat, plus he's been in favor of stupid anti-college student ordinances. He only got elected because he ran against an unpopular yet established Democrat in 2005 and was well known as the head of the state Green Party back when the Party wasn't a joke, aka pre-Nader 2004 (in 2000 Nader beat Bush in a bunch of Minneapolis precincts, including the closest one to the one I live in now.) Also note his only opposition was a Socialist Workers candidate, the DFL never tries to get rid of him because there's really no reason to. Though I must say the idea of a two candidate race where the Green Party candidate is the more conservative one still amuses me to no end.

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Results/MunicipalRaces/6?districtid=43000

Though it can't be tabulated with all the info we're given, I'd say Hodges has most certainly won.

I'm quite fascinated by ward and precinct breakdowns but that'll have to wait till tomorrow.

Also my incumbent councilwoman lost.

Meg Tuthill?

Yep.

My apartment was one with a Bob Fine sign though, though it seems odd landlords would do that. In 2012 there was a Kurt Bills sign, but gone and in the trash a day later, which makes me suspect it was put up by some random Paulite (despite lack of real Republicans, we have no shortage of those) instead of the landlord. Plus it's not one person but some LLC that owns the building and why would you want to alienate your tenants like that?

BTW my first preference was Mike Gould (who received 0.26%) of the vote, an eccentric joke candidate. My second was Andrew and my third Hodges, but I'm not too bothered by Hodges winning as noted, in fact in hindsight I realize I might prefer her. The main reason for my higher pref of Andrew was: 1-A general "meh" attitude toward the Minneapolis City Council and belief that none of them deserved to be the next mayor and 2-Sort of a punishment for Gary Schiff endorsing her. FWIW Hodges seems to be the strip club owners' candidate too (I haven't been to one in over a year now actually...but any municipal election mentioned by me has to mention that. )

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What are Gordon's anti-college student positions?

Also, why did Tuthill lose and lose the DFL endorsement? Was it all because of that phone message? Are all those internet comments about her constantly calling the cops on her neighbors true?

Sponsoring stupid ordinances making it easier to fine people who host parties with underage drinking and easier to evict people over it. Junk like that.

Tuthill lost because of what you mentioned, and the fact that her district changed significantly in redistricting (I wasn't in it prior) and she was a bad fit for the new district demographically as an old from an affluent neighborhood. All the hipster coffeeshops around here had Lisa Bender signs in their windows.

Also even though Andrew has all but conceded, I haven't found anything calling it for Hodges, or the race for her council seat, the only one close enough where the other preferences might make a difference. It appears they might still be tabulating it: http://vote.minneapolismn.gov/results/2013/2013-mayor-tabulation

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

True that.

Current tally is:

Betsy Hodges 32581
Mark Andrew 21831
Don Samuels 10301
Cam Winton 8969
Exhausted 5733

So Winton will be eliminated next, and as a Republican I bet many of his ballots will simply exhaust. Hodges needs 37% of Winton and Samuel's votes to get a majority of votes cast, so whether she does is worth watching. Of course she was also the second/third pref of many Andrew voters (like myself) so there is no doubt she got a preference on majority of ballots cast which should deflect any attacks on IRV.