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  WV-PPP: Capito up 14
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Author Topic: WV-PPP: Capito up 14  (Read 4044 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: September 24, 2013, 07:48:35 am »

50-36 to be precise. Her approval's +9, Tennant's +5.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2013, 08:54:40 am »

It's really hard to imagine so much ticket-splitting continuing in West Virginia when the state goes 60%+ Republican for President.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2013, 11:39:58 am »

And Obama is at 28/67. Even worse than I thought.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2013, 11:50:41 am »

Sure, this may be winnable for Tennant if the environment stays the same, but I think Democrats would be smart to invest their resources elsewhere.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2013, 12:13:34 pm »

Tennant has her age as good argument, as WV needs seniority and Shelley would be somewhat old to be a freshwoman at Senate.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2013, 12:19:03 pm »

LOLno, also Manchin was 63 when he first won in 2010.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2013, 12:30:49 pm »
« Edited: September 24, 2013, 12:33:10 pm by MW representative windjammer »

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Quote from PPP
So, republicans are currently favored, but it's NOT a safe rep seat or likely rep seat.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2013, 12:31:22 pm »

Sure, this may be winnable for Tennant if the environment stays the same, but I think Democrats would be smart to invest their resources elsewhere.

It's not like West Virginia is an expensive state to advertise.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2013, 12:37:50 pm »

Sure, this may be winnable for Tennant if the environment stays the same, but I think Democrats would be smart to invest their resources elsewhere.

It's not like West Virginia is an expensive state to advertise.

Actually, it's more expensive than you'd think, you have to buy Pittsburgh media and 10% of the state (and the only growing part of the state) lives in the D.C. media market.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2013, 12:56:12 pm »

LOLno, also Manchin was 63 when he first won in 2010.

2010 just happened to be Manchin's time. Byrd and Rockefeller were both under 50 when they were first elected.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2013, 05:50:15 pm »

This is one poll after the announcement. I believe it is more like an 8 pt lead. I like this race better than MnT, SD, or Ark.
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badgate
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2013, 11:36:38 pm »
« Edited: September 25, 2013, 12:59:17 am by badgate »

WE REMAIN UNDETERRED!!!!!!


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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2013, 02:33:47 am »

New Poll: West Virginia Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-9-22

Summary: D: 36%, R: 50%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2013, 06:35:57 am »

This is one poll after the announcement. I believe it is more like an 8 pt lead. I like this race better than MnT, SD, or Ark.

lol. So now you guys don't trust PPP for accurate results? You trusted PPP on Kentucky, one poll after Grimes announcement. I do think its a bit inaccurate because Obama disapproval is 67%, a bit high even for West Virginia. But I don't think you guys have the right of saying that, especially for praising PPP for accurate results and being "the gold standard". I would also say that Arkansas is a much likelier hold for you guys than West Virginia, while you may like the race better, as of right now, WV is a much more favorable to R's.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2013, 06:58:40 am »
« Edited: September 25, 2013, 07:00:36 am by OC »

Asa Hutchinson will have coattails. SMC remains untested. GOP will gain 3-4 seats and SD is the only safe seat for GOP out of MnT, WVa and Ark.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2013, 12:09:36 pm »

Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.
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Seattle
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2013, 12:14:07 am »

Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2013, 10:00:53 am »

Actually surprise that Rockerfeller's numbers are that high, he's the only honest politician in the state.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2013, 05:21:40 pm »

Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.

Didn't Manchin also get hit after the Toomey-Manchin gun control bill? I always thought that was part of it.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2013, 05:24:21 pm »

Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.

Didn't Manchin also get hit after the Toomey-Manchin gun control bill? I always thought that was part of it.

I thought that too, but apparently not:

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2013, 05:37:29 pm »

Tomblin is the most popular pol here, at 47/35. Manchin has fallen from 61/23 to 46/44 and Rockefeller is actually negative, 45/46.

I think that's pretty telling of the effect Obama and the perception of his policies in WV has had... for Manchin to see such a drastic drop.

Didn't Manchin also get hit after the Toomey-Manchin gun control bill? I always thought that was part of it.

I thought that too, but apparently not:

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There seems to be an extremely large disconnect between voters heavily favoring expanded background checks while simultaneously tanking the popularity of people who support them. This happened in the Colorado recalls as well. The NRA is very good at what they do, that's for sure.
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hopper
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2013, 01:52:51 am »

Capito is winning 30% of Demorcats. If Tennant can get more of the Dem Vote she can be very competitive.
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Holmes
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2013, 07:31:28 pm »

Capito is winning 30% of Demorcats. If Tennant can get more of the Dem Vote she can be very competitive.

If this is really the case then Capito's numbers might go down a bit closer to election day as Democrats start to seriously consider if they want to vote for her or not. But it's West Virginia and they will.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2013, 08:09:43 am »

We already saw a 5 point poll. Her lead is close to eight and so is Daines, than the 14 pt. poll we see.
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CEO of Bernie Sanders
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« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2013, 01:52:20 pm »

We already saw a 5 point poll. Her lead is close to eight and so is Daines, than the 14 pt. poll we see.

We've already established Repass is junky and usually overestimates Ds like it did in the Tomblin race. It's much closer to 14 than 5.
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