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  WV-PPP: Clinton trails everyone
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Author Topic: WV-PPP: Clinton trails everyone  (Read 5333 times)
Supersonic
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« Reply #25 on: September 25, 2013, 06:39:29 pm »

I realise this is only one poll, but hopefully this can dispel the 'West Virginia is Clinton country' myth.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #26 on: September 25, 2013, 06:51:19 pm »

Why is this a story? This is fcuking West Virginia! This is the state that was the most recent Democratic presidential candidate's fifth worst state, and the state in which the most recent Democratic President has his second lowest approval rating. The only real story is that Cruz ONLY leads Clinton, one of the highest ranking officials in Barack FCUKING OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION by 3...other than his last name and skin color, there is no better fcuking fit for this joke of a state than Ted fcuking Cruz! If Cruz is only leading in WEST VIRGINIA by 3, heck if Christie is only leading by NINE in West FCUKING Virginia, I just got a hell of a lot more optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2016 (not that I wasn't obviously very optimistic already, and for good reason). What are you gonna tell me next? That Patrick FCUKING LEAHY is a lock for reelection?

Why are you so angry? It's just a poll dude, calm yourself.

I'm not "angry," I'm just fired up by the fact that Republicans want to make a story out of the fact that a liberal Democrat tied closely to Barack Obama would be trailing in WEST VIRGINIA, of all places. Also guys, I don't know if you heard, but Andrew Cuomo is a strong favorite to win reelection if he runs.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #27 on: September 25, 2013, 06:57:33 pm »

Only Schweitzer/Warren ticket could win WV.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #28 on: September 25, 2013, 07:27:17 pm »

Only Schweitzer/Warren Warner ticket could win WV.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2013, 07:40:38 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote. A Jeffords type could probably win there today just as a Manchin type could win massively in WV.  Not to mention that Shumlin's predecessor served for four terms as a Republican from 2003 to 2011, just as Tomblin is a Democratic governor of WV. Not to mention that Douglas held on by 15% and 32% margins respectively in 2006 and 2008, not exactly Republican waves. Tomblin's largest margin of victory as of yet is 5%.

I'm not saying that someone like Christie could make it close in Vermont, but chances are Hillary has just about as much of a chance winning in WV as Christie does in VT.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2013, 08:05:38 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote. A Jeffords type could probably win there today just as a Manchin type could win massively in WV.  Not to mention that Shumlin's predecessor served for four terms as a Republican from 2003 to 2011, just as Tomblin is a Democratic governor of WV. Not to mention that Douglas held on by 15% and 32% margins respectively in 2006 and 2008, not exactly Republican waves. Tomblin's largest margin of victory as of yet is 5%.

I'm not saying that someone like Christie could make it close in Vermont, but chances are Hillary has just about as much of a chance winning in WV as Christie does in VT.

Fully agree
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2013, 08:57:59 pm »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +4
30-45: Christie +19
46-65: Christie +10
65+: Christie +11

Paul vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Paul +2
30-45: Paul +26
46-65: Paul +5
65+: Paul +9
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2013, 10:07:43 pm »

Why is this a story? This is fcuking West Virginia! This is the state that was the most recent Democratic presidential candidate's fifth worst state, and the state in which the most recent Democratic President has his second lowest approval rating. The only real story is that Cruz ONLY leads Clinton, one of the highest ranking officials in Barack FCUKING OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION by 3...other than his last name and skin color, there is no better fcuking fit for this joke of a state than Ted fcuking Cruz! If Cruz is only leading in WEST VIRGINIA by 3, heck if Christie is only leading by NINE in West FCUKING Virginia, I just got a hell of a lot more optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2016 (not that I wasn't obviously very optimistic already, and for good reason). What are you gonna tell me next? That Patrick FCUKING LEAHY is a lock for reelection?

I recall seeing a poll showing Hillary leading Christie in Arkansas by 2 points, but it was spun as "bad news" for her because she was "only at 45%" or something along those lines. Totally ignoring the last Democrat lost the state by over 20 points.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2013, 10:10:47 pm »

I like the fact that Bush is in the lead. 
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2013, 10:16:47 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #35 on: September 25, 2013, 11:00:53 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

But we all know that a West Virginia Democrat means something very different than a national Democrat, as does a Vermont Republican than a national Republican. So perhaps this aspect isn't even relevant; regardless of parties, a liberal won't win WV and a conservative won't win VT. That's what matters.
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Devils30
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« Reply #36 on: September 25, 2013, 11:56:04 pm »

I would expect West Virginia to return closer to 2008 PVI levels but it's done going blue. Curious if Hillary would win the coal counties or improve in the midwestern section near Ohio/PA. Guessing the 2nd is more likely, even if Hillary won some of the counties around Pittsburgh I think Dems are done in the southern part of WV.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #37 on: September 25, 2013, 11:59:14 pm »

They said Obama's numbers in West Virginia are the second-worst of any state. How can that be? Between Kentucky and West Virginia, I always thought of Kentucky as being the more conservative of the two, by far.
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Devils30
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« Reply #38 on: September 26, 2013, 12:01:05 am »

Kentucky has Louisville..WV has really no large metro areas. This poll looks good for the GOP in West Virginia, but they are in great peril in Virginia long-term and have more or less maxed out their white vote in Florida.
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barfbag
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« Reply #39 on: September 26, 2013, 12:14:52 am »

They said Obama's numbers in West Virginia are the second-worst of any state. How can that be? Between Kentucky and West Virginia, I always thought of Kentucky as being the more conservative of the two, by far.

They usually are but not last time. The coal industry has been destroyed by Obama. Democrats used to cry foul over Reagan's policies towards the steel industry. Now we'll be able to throw it right back regarding Obama's policies towards the coal industry.
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Beet
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« Reply #40 on: September 26, 2013, 12:21:14 am »

This freaking sucks... coal Armageddon has turned WV into Wyoming... even though hardly anyone in WV even works in coal anymore. The coal industry has been destroyed by the free market, people. Liberals have been trying to fight against fracking. Mitt Romney was right... Corporations invented this and they're driving it. Joseph Schumpeter. Creative destruction. I thought this was what conservatives were all into? But of course, blame Obama.

The only good thing about this poll is that the "old" Clinton is doing best among people in their 20s... even against Paul.
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Devils30
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« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2013, 12:24:51 am »

Coal has been declining for years, and the Democratic brand in WV was as well long before Obama arrived. Natural gas is cheaper and more efficient, that's why coal has declined, not Obama.
When you look at WV on issues like gay marriage and abortion, it is exactly the red state you would expect.
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« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2013, 12:44:26 am »

Poetic justice for all the sh**t Obama got for doing poorly in Appalachia.
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morgieb
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« Reply #43 on: September 26, 2013, 01:15:29 am »

Boat has sailed.

Irrelevant anyway as the Dems don't need it to get to 270.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #44 on: September 26, 2013, 11:26:52 am »

Boat has sailed.

Irrelevant anyway as the Dems don't need it to get to 270.

Thank you. The Dems need it to get to 518. That is all.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #45 on: September 26, 2013, 06:39:26 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

Manchin is not Hillary, and as PolitiJunkie said, a liberal will not win WV. Period.

One could argue that Maine is not a Democratic state because it has no Democratic statewide officials. Yet at the same time it has gone Democratic every cycle since 1992.

Statewide and national elections are two different things entirely. The NJ gubernatorial race is not Safe R. It is Safe Christie, just as the 2012 WV senate race was Safe Manchin, not Safe D. Often the statewide races are a great indicator of a state's national lean. But as in the case of WV, it is not.

So no, WV is not gone for all Democrats, but almost no states are gone for all Democrats or all Republicans. WV is gone for all D presidential nominees, because the only type of Democrat that can be nominated is a Democrat far too liberal for West Virginia.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #46 on: September 26, 2013, 07:31:20 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

Manchin is not Hillary, and as PolitiJunkie said, a liberal will not win WV. Period.

One could argue that Maine is not a Democratic state because it has no Democratic statewide officials. Yet at the same time it has gone Democratic every cycle since 1992.

Statewide and national elections are two different things entirely. The NJ gubernatorial race is not Safe R. It is Safe Christie, just as the 2012 WV senate race was Safe Manchin, not Safe D. Often the statewide races are a great indicator of a state's national lean. But as in the case of WV, it is not.

So no, WV is not gone for all Democrats, but almost no states are gone for all Democrats or all Republicans. WV is gone for all D presidential nominees, because the only type of Democrat that can be nominated is a Democrat far too liberal for West Virginia.

Thank you; this is perfect.

I can see why some people might have thought that Hillary had a fighting chance in WV because Bill Clinton was so popular there and the southern Democrat brand works well there, and honestly, Hillary probably would have won the state had she been the nominee in 2008 (assuming that in this alternate reality, the GOP nominee wasn't Huckabee, and ESPECIALLY if the nominee WAS Romney or Giuliani), but any chances of her winning the state went out the window when she became a member and huge supporter of the Obama administration (and frankly, her southern Democrat brand has been dead since she became a Senator for New York).
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barfbag
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« Reply #47 on: September 26, 2013, 09:00:48 pm »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

Manchin is not Hillary, and as PolitiJunkie said, a liberal will not win WV. Period.

One could argue that Maine is not a Democratic state because it has no Democratic statewide officials. Yet at the same time it has gone Democratic every cycle since 1992.

Statewide and national elections are two different things entirely. The NJ gubernatorial race is not Safe R. It is Safe Christie, just as the 2012 WV senate race was Safe Manchin, not Safe D. Often the statewide races are a great indicator of a state's national lean. But as in the case of WV, it is not.

So no, WV is not gone for all Democrats, but almost no states are gone for all Democrats or all Republicans. WV is gone for all D presidential nominees, because the only type of Democrat that can be nominated is a Democrat far too liberal for West Virginia.

Thank you; this is perfect.

I can see why some people might have thought that Hillary had a fighting chance in WV because Bill Clinton was so popular there and the southern Democrat brand works well there, and honestly, Hillary probably would have won the state had she been the nominee in 2008 (assuming that in this alternate reality, the GOP nominee wasn't Huckabee, and ESPECIALLY if the nominee WAS Romney or Giuliani), but any chances of her winning the state went out the window when she became a member and huge supporter of the Obama administration (and frankly, her southern Democrat brand has been dead since she became a Senator for New York).

I think her chances ended with the gun issue in 2000 when Al Gore was seen as a gun grabber. This may be far fetched but it seems like ever since then, WV has done a 180.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #48 on: September 27, 2013, 07:25:46 am »

Are you talking about Obama voters or people who approve of Obama? Because if its Obama voters then it would make sense as more people turned on him.

He hasn't done anything since the election that would cause him to be impeached. The Benghazi and IRS "scandals" are only for Rushbots who hated him anyway.

Republicans could impeach the President for wearing mismatched socks if they so chose. Such would be a travesty, but in recent years Republicans have rarely seen travesty as a cause for rejecting a political opportunity. Conviction in the Senate would of course be impossible except for some gross malfeasance.

There was much more cause for impeaching Dubya and Cheney (perhaps simultaneously) between early 2007 and late 2008, but Congress did not do so. It was enough to gut their authority.   
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #49 on: September 27, 2013, 08:17:36 am »

Wow.  I guess WV truly has gone completely off into the deep end.
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