NJ-Kean University: Christie +18

[cinyc]

Kean University/Pulse Opinion Research Poll
Christie 52%
Buono 34%

September 19; 1000 Likely Voters; MoE +/- 3%

[PolitiJunkie]

Why am I not surprised?

[Badger]

I am. That's one of the closest margins I've seen in this race.

Though I suspect many undecideds weren't pushed, but will likely swing to Christie.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Odd that we have three polls with a 16-point swing between them in the same day. But any day where one candidate is leading by 18, 28, or 34 just over a month before the election is a good day for that candidate.

[PolitiJunkie]

I am. That's one of the closest margins I've seen in this race.

Though I suspect many undecideds weren't pushed, but will likely swing to Christie.

No. The undecideds are overwhelmingly Democrats who approve somewhat of Christie and don't know anything about Buono, but will ultimately end up voting for the Democrat because that is simply how they align. That's why Christie will win by 8-12, rather than these margins in the 20s we see now. With a popular moderate incumbent in a blue state, why would any Republican be undecided?

[Badger]

I am. That's one of the closest margins I've seen in this race.

Though I suspect many undecideds weren't pushed, but will likely swing to Christie.

No. The undecideds are overwhelmingly Democrats who approve somewhat of Christie and don't know anything about Buono, but will ultimately end up voting for the Democrat because that is simply how they align. That's why Christie will win by 8-12, rather than these margins in the 20s we see now. With a popular moderate incumbent in a blue state, why would any Republican be undecided?

Not a bad argument or an inconcievable outcome, but I suspect many undecideds in this poll are low-info independent voters will gravitate towards the governor they know and who "seems alright".

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am. That's one of the closest margins I've seen in this race.

Though I suspect many undecideds weren't pushed, but will likely swing to Christie.

No. The undecideds are overwhelmingly Democrats who approve somewhat of Christie and don't know anything about Buono, but will ultimately end up voting for the Democrat because that is simply how they align. That's why Christie will win by 8-12, rather than these margins in the 20s we see now. With a popular moderate incumbent in a blue state, why would any Republican be undecided?

Not a bad argument or an inconcievable outcome, but I suspect many undecideds in this poll are low-info independent voters will gravitate towards the governor they know and who "seems alright".

Buono simply has no way to make her case to the voters. She doesn't have money; Christie has plenty. She isn't a sympathetic or charismatic figure, Christie is. Her own organization is against her and actually helping Christie.

Those facts don't exactly point to a close, single-digit race. This will not be close.

[sg0508]

Again, I think some of us here were nuts to think Christie would end up around 65%.  While the gubernatorial races tend to be a lot more bipartisan, in the end, many democrats are going to come home in this blue state.  My guess is 57-42% and don't be surprised when the networks start yapping with the "closer than expected" nonsense. 

It's not often you get a Brad Henry/Phil Bredesen type minority-party win.

[Rowan]

This poll offered a "some other candidate" option and it got 6%. There is no viable "some other candidate" and I doubt that the total 3rd party vote will be anything greater than 1%.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Again, I think some of us here were nuts to think Christie would end up around 65%.  While the gubernatorial races tend to be a lot more bipartisan, in the end, many democrats are going to come home in this blue state.  My guess is 57-42% and don't be surprised when the networks start yapping with the "closer than expected" nonsense.  

^^^

Something like this.