2004 Democratic Primary

[b_rules]

I'd have to disagree with the others that PA is likely to go to Bush.  While the state has been losing population, the voter registration percentages have not changed.  What has happened is that Philly and the Philly suburban counties have become more Democratic, while the rural counties have become more Republican, mimicking the national trend.

Bush was very weak in 2000 in the Philly suburbs, as were Dole in 1996 and Bush in 1992.  It's hard to say whether the suburbs are becoming turned off by the national Republican message or whether this was a Clinton/Gore phenomenon.  Bush's 4 weakest counties in PA, as measured by (Registered GOP % - Bush %) were the 4 suburban counties of Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester.  They were also Gore's strongest counties relative to party registration.

The state is really a toss-up based on those 4 counties, and right now, Bush is not popular there at all.

[b_rules]

Only twice in the 20th century have Presidents been elected directly from Congress - Warren G. Harding in 1920 and John F. Kennedy in 1960, both coming from the Senate.  Seven Presidents were governors (including 4 of the last 5), and five vice presidents were elected in their own right after serving as elected vice presidents.

If a Democrat were to beat Bush, based on history, it would be hard to see it be Gephardt or Kucinich.  These statistics don't bode well for Edwards, Kerry, or Lieberman either.  In my mind, if there is a new President, it could very well be another former governor, Howard Dean.

Anybody want to read more into these statistics?  Do Americans today like their Presidents to have executive branch experience or is the recent trend of governors just coincidental?