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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary  (Read 399028 times)
Peter
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Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« on: October 28, 2003, 09:04:22 pm »

It is likely that within 17 hours of this post, the Conservative leadership may be vacant.  But who do you think should lead the party?
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2003, 12:39:21 pm »

Certainly Clarke, Portillo or Letwin would be formidable foes to the Labour party. Letwin nots running and hes said so, also I think his time may well be in 6 or 7 years..

If Howard wins, expect Blair to call the General election early, maybe next May? Redwood simply isnt in the running and i have heard nothing about him from friends within the party. David Davies may be right wing, but he is certainly charismatic, dont right him off so eagerly. Michael Ancram could never be leader hes too much of a toff. Ann Widdecombe, whilst I love her honesty, is not representative of the party enough to successfully unite them.

If Portillo and Clarke dont run, expect the left wing candidate to be Tim Yeo or David Willetts, although I think the latter is a massive longshot. It is more likely Ken will run with an endorsement from Portillo, who would then serve in the Cabinet. Theresa May isnt exactly up to it, somebody (i cant remember who) was quoted as saying that she wouldnt have been a junior minister in the Thatcher years.

Peter
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2003, 06:25:54 pm »

Dont bet against the house, somebody on the liberal wing of the party will run, even if as a protest candidate. Ken Clarke is presently uncontactable, I havent heard for sure that Yeo is pulling out, and Redwood is sly as a fox.

There is always opportunity for the best laid plans to go awry and dont forget Murphy's Law.

Pete
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2003, 06:31:50 pm »

Peter Hain isnt exactly viable as he negoitiated the European Constitution, good job their Peter.

This country would never elect David Blunkett and you would have to be blind not to see it.

Prescott or Short would be a disaster for this country, perhaps worse than Michael Howard.

Jack Straw doesnt exactly have any good credentials after Iraq, neither does Geoff Hoon who will probably lose his job when Hutton reports.

A couple of names I often heard banded around are Yvette Cooper and personally I think Alan Milburn will be back.

Still, Gordon Brown has done wonders with the economy considering global trends, I am a natural Conservative voter, but I won't vote Tory unless they give me a radical social agenda that stops living in the last century. Blair/Brown still looks to be the most attractive ticket around.
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2003, 08:39:25 pm »

After reading something about Illinois being one of the most carried states in Presidential elections, I decided to check it out:
Illinois has only failed to be carried by five Presidents:
William Harrison (1840)
Grover Cleveland (1884)
Woodrow Wilson (1916)
James Carter (1976)
George W Bush (2000)
The first four didnt win the next election, and neither did their party. Not to say that we should use history as any guide, but the last son of  a President to become President was elected after not winning the popular vote and then lost the next election. Also, it couldn't be coincidence that the last man to be elected President direct from the Senate was a Democrat from the state of Massachusetts with the initials JFK.

By the way, I think that your apportioning of the states is probably a little early as we have no idea who the Democrat ticket is. If Gephardt is on it, I would imagine they will carry Missouri!! What about DC, do you think theres any chance of an 80% swing and the Republicans winning it!!!!

Peter
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2003, 06:38:22 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2003, 11:00:09 am by pete_bell »

Im praying that somebody will decide that it is necessary to intervene, I think Bill Cash may be doing the rounds and considering a run, not that he is any better than Michael Howard. Hopefully a liberal conservative will throw his hat into the ring.

Unfortunately all the liberal conservatives seem to be backing Howard: Yeo, Letwin, Dorrell. Many others arent running: Portillo, Clarke probably wont. This could work to Howard's advantage if puts together a shadow cabinet that actually packs a punch with all sections of the electorate.

My prediction of the Top Posts in Howard Shadow Cabinet:

Chancellor: Portillo (if he ll agree to it)
Foreign: Hague
Home Affairs: Letwin
Chairman and Deputy Leader: David Davis

Likely absences: IDS (hes already said hell return to the back benches), Clarke, Widdecombe, Theresa May, Michael Ancram

Peter

*I would like to point out that within minutes of me posting this, Portillo declared for Clark and the morning after Clarke said he wouldnt run....oh well.
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2003, 04:26:15 pm »

I cannot emphasise enough how much of a disaster the election of the Liberal Democrats would be. Charles Keneddy doesnt work too hard, nor have any economists ever gotten a Lib Dem budget to balance, but that doesnt matter too much because they never get elected.

As for Michael Portillo, time is slipping fast for the Wonder Boy, my bet is Ken Clarke has arranged for him to become Shadow Chancellor and that could hopefully set him up for the succession he so richly deserves after all he has overcome; He did however miss his chance in 1995 when Major stepped aside.

A more likely outcome is in about 6 years, Howard stands down, he'll be 68, and we have the ultimate fight between Letwin and Davis who already have the look of prodigal sons about them. However I fear that Davis may already have missed his chance, I dont think he will get another one as good.

Peter
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2003, 04:36:04 pm »
« Edited: April 21, 2011, 05:08:00 pm by Peter »

This country abandoned socialism a long time ago, Clare Short has a much chance of becoming Labour Leader as IDS does of returning to be Tory leader.

No, the obvious option is still Gordon Brown, with the dark horses of Milburn and Cook up there as the main challengers. Straw is irrelevant and Blunkett sits too far right to be elected by his party.
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2003, 02:29:21 pm »

I shall also point out that Clare Short has commited crimes against the British Constitution and lost a lot of respect amongst fellow socialists and certainly respect she had for being consistent with her opponents.

After saying she would resign and vote against any Iraq war without the UN, she did a U-turn and didnt resign. Later she did resign over the issue but by then her reputation was in tatters.

As to her Constitutional Crimes: in the vote over Foundation Hospitals, she did not take part despite there being a three-line whip. She said that she "forgot". No, failure to obey collective cabinet responsiblity means that you should resign on grounds of principle, not abstain. For this reason she commited a Crime against the Constitution.

Peter

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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2003, 02:31:49 pm »

There are constantly health worries surrounding Menzies Campbell, so he couldnt be leader. If anybody looks cut out to lead the Lib Dems its Simon Hughes, but it looks like they are sending him into the four horse fight for control of London, now that will be the most contested election in the country come May.

Peter
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Peter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,031


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2004, 12:17:28 pm »

Been away for a while, so just catching up:

What I meant by good job with reference to Peter Hain is that (at the time) the EU Constitution looked a rather dangerous prospect for Britain, and therefore Peter Hain would not be viable as he negoitiated it on the UKs behalf.

I see Milburn as the longer term successor to Blair, however, I do wonder whether Labour could elect another Blairite. Brown is still waiting in the shadows, and if anything were to happen to Blair (politically or health), then he would take over. I dont see Estelle Morris as a viable candidate, especially after the A-levels fiasco (I had to live thro' that, didnt really endear me to her). Stephen Twigg is an intereting thought, although I think the country may need twenty more years to be ready for a gay PM (not that is a good thing).

Whoever has been reading the Mail ought to stop buying it, it just encourages the right wing lunatics to print more of their crap.
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