2004 Democratic Primary

[zorkpolitics]

This month's elections emphasized that the country is still split Red/Blue  Republican/Democratic.  Republicans challengers won in Red states (KY and MS) fairly easily, but Democrats solidified there control in NJ.  So I assume the 2004 election will closely follow 2000, unless there is a state specific factor that would lead to a change.  Thus the election will come down to the 17 closest states in 2000, those with a margin of victory less than 7%.   The winner in these states could be determined by how strong third parties run and any changes in statewide voter partisanship.
 
The margin of third party votes exceeded the winning margin in 6 states.  The Green Party may have cost Gore two states NH and FL, while Libertarian and Reform Parties may have cost Bush 4 states: NM, WI, IA, OR.  At this point it seems likely all three third parties will run again, though I think it likely the Reform and Green parties will get fewer votes in 2004.

The recent Pew Research Center for the People & the Press review of partisanship found a significant change in Republican self identification from 2000 to 2003.  Looking over the tables of partisanship change:
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750
if we assume the shift in party identification results in a similar change in voting, it suggests Bush would lose NH (but retain FL), and he would pick up NM, WI, MN, IA, MI and maybe OR.

[zorkpolitics]

Check out the Ballot Access News for the latest on which independent parties are on which state ballots:
http://www.ballot-access.org/

I think it likely Nader will try for the Green nomination again, but if he runs in 2004 he’ll get fewer votes than 2000.

The reform party will not attract a viable candidate and have even less than the 0.4% they got in 2004.
Libertarians will be on all 50 state ballots and take about the same 0.4% as 2000.  Together both the Reform and Libertarian parties will reduce Bush’s vote by about 1%, enough to hurt Bush in close states (His margin of loss in 4 states, NM, WI, IA, OR, in 2000 was less than the vote for either the Reform or Libertarian Party)

Most interesting maybe Kucinich, one of his best friends and major supporters, Haglin, is the founder of the Natural Law party which was on most (maybe all?) state ballots in 2000.  This could be the perfect vehicle for Kucinich to carry on as the "true" progressive".  Sharpton might want to run as an independent, but I don't think he has any friends willing to give him a party line or the skills to organize a 50 state effort to get on the ballot.  Altogether if Nader, Kucinich and/or Sharpton ran on the Left it would probably drain 2-4% from the Democratic candidate, which could help Bush in the close states (he won two states in 2000 by less than the Green vote (NH and FL).  

[zorkpolitics]

When I download the map its just a static .gif file, how do I download a map I can change the color of the states?