2004 Democratic Primary (user search)
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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary  (Read 438347 times)
Ben.
Ben
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« on: December 03, 2003, 07:16:48 PM »

Based on the 2000 contest and the current circumstances in most states by the summer (i.e the democratic convention) this is how I see the states looking. Dean I would say will very probably be the Democratic nominee with Clarke as his running mate. Dean will do poorly in many southern states…but in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia next to Gephardt he is best placed to exploit traditional blue collar democratic support amongst Union members and those states which went narrowly to Gore should still go to Dean as the Nader vote will almost certainly go to him in a big way.

The Lean Democratic States are going to be easier to win for the republicans than the lean republican states however I stick by my predictions.      


Alabama (9 EV) – Solid Republican    
Alaska  (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Arizona (10 EV) – Lean Republican
Arkansas (6 EV) – Lean Republican
California (55 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Colorado (9 EV) – Lean Republican    
Connecticut (7 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Delaware (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
D.C. (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Florida (27 EV) – Lean Republican    
Georgia (15 EV) – Solid Republican    
Hawaii (4 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Idaho (4 EV) – Solid Republican    
Illinois (21 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Indiana (11 EV) – Solid Republican    
Iowa (7 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Kansas (6 EV) – Solid Republican  
Kentucky (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
Louisiana (9 EV) – Solid Republican  
Maine (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Maryland (10 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Massachusetts (12 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Michigan (17 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Minnesota (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Mississippi (6 EV) – Solid Republican    
Missouri (11 EV) – Lean Republican  
Montana (3 EV) – Lean Republican    
Nebraska (5 EV) – Solid Republican    
Nevada (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Hampshire (4 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Jersey (15 EV) – Solid Democratic      
New Mexico (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New York (31 EV) – SOLID Democratic  
North Carolina (15 EV) – Lean Republican    
North Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Ohio (20 EV) – Lean Republican    
Oklahoma (7 EV) – Solid Republican  
Oregon (7 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Pennsylvania (21 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Rhode Island (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
South Carolina (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
South Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Tennessee (11 EV) – Lean Republican    
Texas (34 EV) – Solid Republican  
Utah (5 EV) – Solid Republican  
Vermont (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Virginia (13 EV) – Solid Republican    
Washington (11 EV) – Lean Democratic    
West Virginia (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wisconsin (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wyoming (3 EV) – Solid Republican  
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Ben.
Ben
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Posts: 4,249


« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2003, 07:56:36 AM »

Darth: Nothing positive? Dean in Hardball came across as relaxed, well informed and personable he did dig into Bush’s polices but 75% of the time he outlined his own views and beliefs with out referance to W. The lack of digs at Bush could partly be explained because he was projecting himself to the American electorate rather than the Democratic grassroots any primary candidate has to appeal to…but in terms of Dean being the “angry candidate” his attacks on Bush certainly where an important part of his campaign early on but these days he reserves them for occasional talks with activist while with undecided voters and independents he is a more pleasant laidback but no less passionate candidate.

“I started this campaign for the presidency with the simple notion that America can be better. I had virtually no staff and no money, but I wanted to talk about health care. I wanted to talk about early childhood development.  And I wanted to talk about fiscal responsibility and the importance of balancing the budget."

I offered people a campaign in which they could participate, and they have done so -- beyond anything we imagined. This campaign no longer is mine; it belongs to the people who are building it.”

- Howard Dean, Houston/ Texas:  November 18, 2003
 
“To me, health care isn't simply a policy issue. It's a moral imperative. Here, in the richest, most advanced country in the world in the 21st century, it's simply wrong for a sick child to go without seeing a doctor because her parents can't afford it.

Wrong for a woman to find out she has late stage breast cancer, because she couldn't afford a mammogram.

Wrong for elderly people to be choosing between prescriptions and food.

-Howard Dean, Columbia University, May 13, 2003

“This campaign is about more than one political office. It is about putting the power of the people to work for change. It is about giving people a reason to get involved, to care about their community, to get active, and out there, and vote!

I am running for President because it is time to rebuild the American community, reclaim our democratic heritage and restore our country to its rightful place as a moral leader among the nations of the world.

And I am running for President because it's time that we stood up to this President, to the Republican Party, to their radical conservative agenda, and forced them out of office.”

-Howard Dean, Des Moines, IA (July 30, 2003)
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2003, 04:12:45 PM »

Dean suggested that like Microsoft, Murdoch and GE have an unfair dominance over the market and this is unfair. I am currently studying in the UK and here Murdoch runs a number of papers and now wants to buy a TV channel and most of the country is up in arms about how this will give him undue influence.

In the US the media market is owned by a small number of mostly conservative men…in the book “two cheers for Democracy” E.M.Forster said the second cheer was because Democracy permitted diversity in my view with likes of Murdoch there is no diversity of opinion and what Dean hopes is that through regulation of the media business the power of single corporations could be reduced and that rather than a limited narrow number of sources of news and opinion that might be many.

Personally I though Dean’s Hardball performance was very good, relaxed, well informed and attentive. Not the stiff and awkward Howard Dean who often appeared on TV earlier in the year.

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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2004, 11:19:18 AM »

My guess, around 2% growth in 2004, job growth 500K to 1 million, unemployment rate 5.8%-6.3%.

Well, JNB, the 1st quarter of 2004 had a gain of 513k jobs for a yearly average of 2.1M...the umemployment rate so far in 2004 has been in the range of 5.6%-5.7%...we'll have to wait for the end of the month to get a reading on GDP.


It's like you're a fashion model who gained 300 pounds since we hired you but you want to be rehired because you lost 30.

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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2004, 12:04:16 PM »


It's like you're a fashion model who gained 300 pounds since we hired you but you want to be rehired because you lost 30.


No, more like a doctor who diagnosed in late 2000 the declining health of a patient when you thought every thing was perfect; and in July 2003 was trying to tell you that the patient was recovering faster than at any rate in 20 years!

While you doom&gloomsters have been forecasting a slip back into recession, I've been trying to tell you that the economy has a HUGE head of steam.

Granted, I didn't count on such huge gains in productivity delaying rehiring, but I have been telling you that things are improving, which for you Dems, if VERY bad news!  LOL!

"LOL" thats a bit unfair then again if things where reversed... but never mind.... i am having my doubts about where my party seems to be heading much as i am worried by where your party's heading...  
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2004, 01:15:11 PM »

You underestimate quite how homophobic the Hate Mail is...(they have published an article called "how gay is my valley". Not funny, not clever, homophobic and possibly racist), and as Bryant is the M.P for Rhondda(and a good one from what I've heard) being attacked by a Tory newspaper is like christmas coming early(the Tories lost their deposit(5%) in Rhondda last election)
Of course Bryant is used to homophobic attacks;
Plaid's attempt to stop him getting elected in 2001 revolved around calling him "exotic".
Bryant won 68% of the vote on a low turnout.

If the Hate Mail wants to bang on about M.P's sexual preferances, they should look at Paul Marsden(and that IS worrying)

I have a very strong dislike of Bryant he is overall a very slimy and sycophantic individual who is viewed as such by many within the Party and importantly most Labour MPs... that said many MPs are ambitious and that isn’t a crime, but he annoys me a great deal that said I have heard him speak and he has made one or two very good  points.

It is interesting that such an Ultra-Blairite should attract the admiration of Migrendel who want Clare Short as Prime Minister (LOL, as she sinks deeper and deeper into a vain stupor of sanctimonious, hypocritical denounctions of the government)… I would advise Migrendel to look at Alan Simpson as the most credible hard lefty within the Parliamentary Party and Peter Hain as the only viable candidate for the leadership form the “soft left”.    

Of all the young stars of the party (and I don't count Bryant amougst them) Ben Bradshaw is most likely to be the first Gay Prime Minister.... that said there are a brace of equally talented junior members of the government who will be vying with him for that in the future... having met Bradshaw I'm a great supporter of his and genuinely like the guy, personally I have always thought that Blair should have promoted him to Leader of the House when Cook resigned… but ah well…

Al. What was your opinion of Alan Milburn?    
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2004, 09:33:06 AM »

I’d agree with you that Cooper (a ultra loyal Brownite and wife of Ed Balls) and Flint (a protégé of Bluncket’s) are the two women from the younger generation of Labour MPs most likely to one day contest the leadership.

Pat Hewitt while a Blairite is popular within the Labour Party and has long and solid record and while I think that Brown will retain her in a Government lead by her (to appease Blairites and also because of her ability) I think that by the time a vacancy for the leadership re-emerges she will be too old, she could of course contest the leadership when Blair goes but I think she (along with Straw and Blunckett)are more likely to back Brown the three contenders who most likely will challenge Brown are John Reid, Alan Simpson and Peter Hain and all three will probably lose however I could see both Hain and Hewitt contesting the deputy leadership in the near future.      
David Milliband, David Lambey, Hillary Benn, Douglas Alexander, Alan Milburn (older than the others) and Ben Bradshaw are all other members of the younger generation who might one day vie for the leadership after Brown term has come to an end.        
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Ben.
Ben
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Posts: 4,249


« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2004, 12:21:35 PM »

I suspect that Cooper will be overshadowed by Balls moving in next door Wink
But both Cooper and Flint benifit from having nice safe seats... as you've said most of the "Blair Babes" hold traditional marginals (and in some cases seats that Labour have no business holding) and Flint's been getting a lot of airtime recently.

Some M.P's I'd like to see do well:

Kim Howells
Huw Irranca-Davies
Mark Tami
Tom Watson
Peter Bradley
Kevan Jones
Steve Hepburn
David Milliband

Howells for P.M! Cheesy

Kim Howells Huh

Don't know much about him...

David Milliband is mooted to be Blair's preferred successor after Brown's tenure and both he and Milburn seem set for promotion (well its a return for Milburn) at the next reshuffle (probably in September) and hopefully someone decent can replace f****** Ian McCartny... Peter Hain or Pat Hewitt being the strongest candidates IMHO, them or some younger MP hailing from the centre left of the Party (“Soft Left” Robin Cook, Peter Hain territory.. to placate activists and Trades Unionists in equal measure).    
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