Korean unification

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm going to have to say option 3. Of course, it's going to be very problamatic since the two countries aren't similar at all anymore. Unifying a prosperous democracy and basket case totalitarian hellhole isn't the easiest task.

I think the most likely scenario is if China finally gives in and invades NK. China is the only country in the world right now that is willing to tolerate NK, and even they're losing their patience. If things get too bad China might just march their troops in and take over. I suspect that NK is trying to get nukes to protect just as much from China. It'll probably take a much more reformed and democratic China, just like the Eastern Bloc collapsed under a watered down Soviet Union though.

There is a historical analogy to NK though. Albania during the Cold War under the tyrant Enver Hoxha was pretty similar. Hoxha sided with teh Chinese in the Sino-Soviet Split because he felt the post-Stalin government was too moderate, not enough like the Man of Steel for his tastes. Then he split with the Chinese after Mao died for the same reason. Albania became isolated from the world, with pillboxes all around the border supposedly to defend it from the armies of the Soviets or the West that could come in any minute. It also became the first and to date only nation to truly outright ban all religion. Later Hoxha even had his very close friend and long time right hand man killed, supposedly for being a Titoist. But once Hoxha died, his successor realized that Albania couldn't remain the same with Eastern Europe around it chaning. Albania sure isn't perfect today, but it's making massive improvements. If someone with an ounce of sanity replaces Kim Jong-Il, maybe some progress might happen.

[John Dibble]

Probably, but I can't estimate the time. Kim is gonna have to die first, though, one way or another.

[Lunar]

North Korea is a mountainous country with over a million foot soldiers and loaded with much of the latest Chinese military technology, yeah right.

North Korea destabilizes the region, but it is not a threat to China, so why would China lose hundreds of thousands of men and lose hundreds of billions of dollars investing in a war that doesn't really accomplish anything?

The most likely scenario for unification is probably the North Korean government collapsing (something the Chinese very well might do) and some kind of referendum being held in both countries.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

North Korea is a mountainous country with over a million foot soldiers and loaded with much of the latest Chinese military technology, yeah right.

North Korea destabilizes the region, but it is not a threat to China, so why would China lose hundreds of thousands of men and lose hundreds of billions of dollars investing in a war that doesn't really accomplish anything?

The most likely scenario for unification is probably the North Korean government collapsing (something the Chinese very well might do) and some kind of referendum being held in both countries.

Would you want a lunatic country like that just south of yo? It wouldn't be too difficult to take if that country is basically completely reliant on you.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Probably, but I can't estimate the time. Kim is gonna have to die first, though, one way or another.

I figure there's go to be some military officer who realizes the country would be much better off under someone who doesn't belong in an insane asylum. But organizing a coup or assasination is easier said that done.

Above also applies to Turkmenistan. The guy there is another fellow who's in desperate need of a little run in with a car bomb.

[Lunar]

North Korea is a mountainous country with over a million foot soldiers and loaded with much of the latest Chinese military technology, yeah right.

North Korea destabilizes the region, but it is not a threat to China, so why would China lose hundreds of thousands of men and lose hundreds of billions of dollars investing in a war that doesn't really accomplish anything?

The most likely scenario for unification is probably the North Korean government collapsing (something the Chinese very well might do) and some kind of referendum being held in both countries.

Would you want a lunatic country like that just south of yo? It wouldn't be too difficult to take if that country is basically completely reliant on you.

Um, countries just don't get "fed up" and invade at the costs of hundreds of thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars as I already said.  North Korea is NOT going to attack China.  While Kim might be a lunatic, he's not about to nuke Harbin or something. 

Are you suggesting that China cut off food supplies to the country a month before it invades?  um.

[2952-0-0]

Above also applies to Turkmenistan. The guy there is another fellow who's in desperate need of a little run in with a car bomb.

NK has been rated as the country least likely to be hit by terrorism, so that can't happen very soon you see.

[The Duke]

It will happen, but not for some time.  And when it does it won't be a happy transition like Germany.  North Korea is so messed up I think rebuilding it will have to a be a regional, maybe global effort.  South Korea may not want unification right away, since all the Northerners will want to moce South to find work and food.

[Beet]

It will never happen.

[AuH2O]

NK is very close to collapse, but I say they'll hold it together for another 5-7 years. Rebuilding it will be an absolute nightmare... it's been ruined for the better part of a century probably.

[Hitchabrut]

Within 25 years.

[WMS]

Here's some information from another source (and they're free, so I can actually post the link). Yes, it has a mild military-conservative bias, and they can be on the overly optimistic side, but they track EVERY damn war on the planet, including the ones the world forgot like the Congo Civil War/First African World War, still sputtering. And they've got interesting stuff.

Here's where I got my quotes from. I will emphasize the bit about the cell phones - it's quite a good overlooked story.

March 3, 2005: North Koreans who regularly deal with South Koreans indicate that Kim Jong Il is considered toast up north. The senior communist officials in the north are scrambling to find a way to survive the coming collapse of their police state. Among most northerners, there is great hatred of China, for rounding up and returning North Koreans who have fled to China. There is also distaste for recent South Korean governments, which have been willing to subsidize the North Korean police state, and keep it going. As more and more North Koreans find out the truth about their situation (previously North Korean propaganda had stressed that North Korea was the best of all possible worlds), the more popular the United States has become up north. The U.S. has consistently condemned the North Korean government, and the starving North Koreans appreciate that, as well as all the food aid they have received, that was clearly marked as from the United States. The North Korean government has long proclaimed that this American food aid was provided because the U.S. was frightened by the mighty North Korean armed forces. Cell phones and a break down in discipline have enabled more North Koreans to discover that this was all a lie as well.

March 1, 2005: North Korean special forces, a commando organization modeled after the Russian Spetsnaz, are showing unusual activity. This could mean preparations for an attack on South Korea, but there is no similar activity among the regular army divisions that would lead a move south. The special forces could be preparing to deal with civilian unrest, or moving to carry out, or block, a coup. Or both. [snip] But the North Korean people have gone through a decade of famine and increasing privation. Despite some of the most intense indoctrination ever inflicted on a populations, North Koreans are beginning to lose their loyalty to the system they have long believed to be the best in the world. Even commandoes have kin who have starved to death. It’s those damn cell phones again. The truth may be able to set you free, but let it loose among thousands of tough guys with guns, and the results can be unpredictable. That same proliferation of cell phones has unmasked the usually well hidden movements of special forces units.

February 17, 2005: [snip] ...The constant fear is that North Korea, with its large, but weakening, armed forces, will somehow lash out and invade South Korea.

The North Koreans have lashed out once before, in 1950. They got pounded big time in return and have not forgotten that defeat. Since then there have been many minilashes (the Pueblo incident, the low level commando war of the 1960s, kidnapping Japanese in the 70s and 80s, some terrorism, drug dealing, and so on.) They have potential to do much damage. The big problem in the north is that the police state is falling apart. Their biggest enemy right now is cell phones (which have caused the state to lose control of information), lack of food, and lack of fuel. Corruption is growing and discipline in the police and armed forces is falling apart. ...[yes, the article continues, but this is getting long enough]

Here is the main article:

The Korean War Will End, Not With a Bang, But With a Ringtone
by James Dunnigan [One of the owners of the site - WMS]
December 12, 2004
 North Korea is facing growing unrest propelled by uncontrolled movement of news via new cell phone networks. North Korea has always tightly controlled information. Radios must be manufactured so that they only receive government stations. Anyone found with a radio that can receive foreign stations is tossed into a labor camp, or worse. Few North Koreans have telephones, and fewer still have computers or Internet access. But several years ago, Chinese telephone companies began bringing cell phone service to areas along the North Korean border. At first, coverage was spotty. But a year ago, new transmission equipment was installed along the border, making it possible to use the Chinese cell phones all along the North Korean border. There has been government owned cell phone service inside North Korea since 2003, but it is expensive for foreigners ($1200 to get the phone, plus about a dollar to make a one minute call, and 25 cents to receive a call.) The government tightly controls who can have a North Korean cell phone, and it’s assumed that the phones are tapped. The North Korean system is limited in its coverage. The system covers the highways running between Pyeongyang and Hyangsan, Pyeongyang and Gaeseong and Wonsan and Hamheung, as well as those cities themselves. The North Korean system was soon linked to the Chinese system. This was bowing to economic demands. China is North Korea’s largest trading partner, and the source of oil and food assistance. It was North Korean officials working along the Chinese border who forced the issue on connecting the two nations cell phone networks. But now more powerful transmitters allow Chinese cell phones to pick up signals throughout North Korea. This means that the countryside, long completely cut off from anything outside North Korea, was getting news within minutes. Before the cell phones, rural areas often didn’t get news about events in North Korea for weeks. That has all changed, and it making North Koreans aware of what a mess their communist rulers have made. The government quickly picked up on this and made cell phones illegal (except in the hands of authorized officials) throughout much of the country. Hundreds of cell phones have been seized, but people have simply gotten much better at hiding them. Chinese cell phones are  much cheaper to own and operate, and preferred over the government issue ones. The growing number of refugees from North Korea, and unrest inside the country, is due in part to the increased use of cell phones. Many government officials are in a panic over this, because they have always tightly controlled the flow of information. The current generation of North Korean officials have no experience in a society that has free flow of information. They can’t force the Chinese to turn off their cell phone service along the border, and many officials have become addicted to the convenience of cell phone use. It would appear that the North Korean dictatorship will end, not with a bang, but with a ring tone.

November 22, 2004: North Korean police are trying to stop North Koreans from using illegal cell phones along the border. From a hill or high building, a North Korean with a cell phone can get a connection and talk to people outside the country. This is illegal. But the corruption in the north is becoming more open, and the illegal cell phones are not the only contraband being smuggled in.[snip]

[The Duke]

I love strategy page!

[WMS]

I love strategy page!

Yup, it's pretty good for free.

Stratfor is even better, but they're expensive! The best way to get a look at what they think is to go buy the book written by its founder, George Friedman, America's Secret War - Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and its Enemies.