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Franzl
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« on: October 09, 2013, 03:41:39 am »

I was asked to lock the previous thread because it was getting so long.

I'll open this thread with today's federal Forsa poll:

CDU/CDU 45%
SPD 24%
Grüne 8%
Linke 8%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%
« Last Edit: September 23, 2014, 05:07:07 pm by Franzl »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2013, 03:56:21 am »

Thanks, Franzl - good for the Forum speed.

Wink

Maybe Antonio can lock the Italian thread too. This one is getting too big as well.

...

As for the poll: Forsa was actually the best pollster ahead of the election and that means something. In the past, Forsa was said to underestimate the SPD, because the company boss is a former SPD-member (or still ?) who had trouble with the SPD.

Looking at the poll, I find it weird that the Germans didn't outfit Merkel with an absolute majority right away ... Tongue
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2013, 10:32:07 am »

An absolute majority really would have been the best solution, although note that because the AfD gets in, even 45% is insufficient.
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2013, 10:40:55 am »

That poll isn't giving her one. No poll since election day has given her one. There have been five; the two by Forsa have shown CDU/CSU with a lead over SPD/Left/Greens while the three not by Forsa have all shown a tie. All five polls, however, have shown AfD at 5 (first Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) or 6 (second Forsa, both Emnid) - and the FDP at 3 or 4.
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2013, 10:48:29 am »

That poll isn't giving her one. No poll since election day has given her one. There have been five; the two by Forsa have shown CDU/CSU with a lead over SPD/Left/Greens while the three not by Forsa have all shown a tie. All five polls, however, have shown AfD at 5 (first Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) or 6 (second Forsa, both Emnid) - and the FDP at 3 or 4.

And the election was really something of a fluke, with two parties just barely below 5%. Even if 41,5% is a very impressive result these days, it's really not anywhere close to majority territory unless you get incredibly lucky.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2013, 10:52:20 am by Franzl »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2013, 09:21:44 pm »

First - welcome back, Franzl! Hope you enjoyed your break.

I still need a bit of time for my Hamburg metro maps. Two counties (SE, PI) had their result pages down, and I had to e-mail them for precinct data.

In the meantime, here some observations on AfD. Take a look at a few of their strongholds:

Winsen (Luhe) Stöckte II - 13.6 %


Quickborn 080 (NO): 9.94%


Reinbek-Krabbenkamp: 7.1%


Neumunster 35 (Faldera SW): 7.3%


A few other ones w/o photos: Ahrensburg Am Hagen (8.0), Ammersbek-Rehhagen (8.4), Norderstedt 092 (7.3), Oersdorf SE (8.6), Drestedt WL (9.2), Bad Oldesloe-Rethwischfeld (8.3), Süsel-Zarnekau (11.6), Geesthacht 14 (7.5).

What is common to these places? First, their location. They are not only suburban, but located towards the periphery of the respective suburbs (or small towns).
Secondly,  they are made up of individual housing (often detached) on rather small plots, built in the 1960s to late 1970s. Housing which is in the process of being turned over to the next generation,  by sale or inheritance, and  typically is in dire need of modernisation. In other words - the kind of real estate that is offered as "opportunity for people with handicraft skills". The cheapest way to get a house with a small garden, for people that neither mind driving longer distances to work, nor can afford to look for stylish property.
Quite a number of young families (1-2 kids, otherwise the houses are too small) with rather low income, probably also not too well educated, plus those that moved there originally, from a similar demography, but over 65 by now. Politically, several of these quarters lean "left", with the SPD being  the strongest party, and Die Linke over-performing as well. As such, I tend to interpret the elevated AfD vote there rather along the lines of  "I also am struggling financially, and nobody is giving me money, why should Greece have it better" than as a fundamentally right-wing vote - and many AfD voters may have abstained in 2009. [There are further AfD voting patternsl, which I will comment on with the AfD Hamburg metro map to come].

For a final illustration, look at Lübeck-Brandenbaum:

The precinct to the bottom right is one of the AfD's strongest ones in the city (AfD 6.1%, Linke 9.5%, NPD 1.4%).  The area in the center of the picture, however, gave them one of their weakest results- 2.7%.  Instead, it is having SPD (38.4) and Grüne (11.2) strong. What makes the difference? The plot sizes are larger in Brandenbaum-North, which means houses are more expensive, and the population is a bit better off financially (note also that  quite a number of houses in Brandenbaum-North have already received new roofing).
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2013, 04:02:46 am »

Even though CDU and Greens have agreed on a second meeting, the consensus among commentators and experts is still that we're gonna get a Grand coalition.

While CDU-Green would certainly be a possibility, the main problem is that CSU and Greens don't get along at all. They hate each other.

That and the fact that the Greens are currently in a transitional period and half of the Greens' negotiating team won't be in any leadership role in the party very soon anyway. So, it's mostly a courtesy call.
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2013, 04:11:52 am »



Wiesbaden. Federal results (the CDU actually came second in Mitte, Rheingauviertel and Amöneburg and within a point of it in Kastel, and third in the West End in the state elections.) Keys... Same as in the Hesse municipal map for "leading party" except Sonnenberg is actually just 25+ not 30+ (almost 30 though, saw the need to distinguish from other 20+ results), five point steps for CDU (20+ to 45+), SPD (15+ to 30+) and turnout (55+ to 85+), 2.5 steps for FDP (2.5+ to 12.5+) and Greens (5+ to 20+), 1 point steps for AfD (3+ to 6+... and the two extreme shades used just twice and once respectively), and 2 point steps for Linke (1+ to 11+, which means that expressive northeast-southwest dividing line is indeed the 5% threshold! Linke-turnout correlation also quite remarkable.)

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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2013, 07:37:54 am »

Are long lots like those in the last two of Franknburger's images common in Germany?
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2013, 04:42:32 pm »



A coproduction. Frankfurt by day precinct, postal results mathematically distributed to precincts - details on request.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2013, 08:49:44 am by do you think I really care, do you think it matters? »Logged

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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2013, 08:51:12 am »



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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2013, 03:50:03 pm »

Are long lots like those in the last two of Franknburger's images common in Germany?
They are quite common in Northern Germany, where you have a lot of swampy/marshy areas. From the 17th century on, these areas were gradually drained by a network of small channels, with the main channels running in parallel to the larger creeks/ rivers, and small channels feeding in orthogonally.  The drainage system naturally led into a pattern of long, but not very wide  lots that run from the street/ dyke towards the next major drainage channel. The picture below shows the traditional settlement on the Elbe marshes around Hamburg, as it developed after dykes were built along the river in the 17th/ 18th century.



Most of the draining, however, only took place in the early 20th century, especially under the Nazis, as the creation of new settlement areas for individual housing with small-scale agriculture  formed part of their social policy. The Nazis typically used concentration camp workers, especially political prisoners, later also Russian POW, for these drainage works. The workers' life is described in the German resistance hymn on the "Moorsoldaten".
After WW II, when new housing was required for millions of displaced Germans from territory now under Russian and Polish administration, the freshly drained areas were an obvious option for settlement development, and split up the traditional way. 

In parts of Southern and Eastern Germany, a similar settlement pattern, the Waldhufendorf, was used since the 10th century to clear and colonise forest areas. See this historic map of Schönbrunn (now Jablonec) in Silesia.
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2013, 01:55:11 pm »

With the right kind of eye, you can still just about make out that Frankfurt-Oberrad was an old Waldhufendorf before it turned workers' suburb in the second half of the 19th century.

http://goo.gl/maps/PPjL1

The following maps are in 2 point scale at the uneven points...



Yes, there's a single <5% precinct in Frankfurt.

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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2013, 01:16:19 am »

The green epicentres in Bornheim and Westend are obvious and expected. FDP-leaning bankers appear to prefer the Nordend in-between.

Curious for your AfD map-will it also show 1960s/1970s detached housing areas as their strongholds, as around Hamburg? How about Oberursel in this respect?
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2013, 04:53:08 am »

Emnid poll for federal level:

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 25%
Linke 10%
Grüne 9%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%

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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2013, 04:58:05 am »

Emnid poll for federal level:

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 25%
Linke 10%
Grüne 9%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%



I am inexcusably late but allow me to say it anyway: WELCOME BACK FRANZL!!! Cheesy
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2013, 01:02:35 pm »

The green epicentres in Bornheim and Westend are obvious and expected.
Huh? What? Greens in the Westend? Last seen in the 80s, pal. Tongue (You're thinking of Bockenheim, and of the Westend when you refer to the Nordend just after. The question of what is Bornheim and what is the Nordend - and what Ostend - should not be entered on lightly or on an empty stomach. -_-)
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2013, 01:33:22 pm »





There are details that make sense to me here... but not really all that many. One point scale. Yeah, the AfD vote in the city was that even, between 3 and 7 almost everywhere. Also doesn't seem to correlate with numbers of postal voters at all, at least at the micro level. (These are figures I've looked at sort of accidentally, as a result of the calculations to include the postal votes. So I'm talking of correlation of party strength to number of postal voters from a precinct, compared to the other precincts grouped into the same postal vote precinct here. Expectable positive correlations of FDP and - almost everywhere - CDU, negative correlations of SPD and Left, and the Greens jump all over the place due to it mattering a lot what their relative stronghold in question is being compared with.)

Curious for your AfD map-will it also show 1960s/1970s detached housing areas as their strongholds, as around Hamburg? How about Oberursel in this respect?
The municipal map of Hesse sort of does when you zoom in on the Frankfurt area, given that for all their affluence, the Vortaunus (and I think also the Offenbach) suburbs did fill up in the 50s to 70s and suburban growth since has mostly been elsewhere. See also the city's suburban far north on this map.
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2013, 04:00:25 pm »

In Munich much of the AfD voting pattern seems to be random noise. I will try to explain what I mean:
Non-postal precincts had on average 557 active voters. The average of the AfD in non-postal precincts was 5.0% (including postal votes it was 4.5%). So let's assume a precincts of 557 and every voter votes AfD with a probability of 5.0%. Then the expectation would be 27.85 votes, but only ca. half of the time would the result lie in the bracket 25 - 31. And if we would consider family members and neighbors influencing each other, the bracket would be even wider.
In reality half of the non-postal precinct results lie in the bracket 4.2%-5.9%, which is a bit more than we had pure random noise distrubution, but still...

So, what remains?
* Inner-city districts, which mostly are Green strongholds, have relatively weak AfD results: Ludwigsvorstadt-Isarvorstadt at 3.3% (compared to 4.5%), Schwanthalerhöhe at 3.4%, Au-Haidhausen at 3.6% etc.
* On the other hand the district with the highest AfD percentage (5.2%) is Bogenhausen, many other districts are at 5.1% or 5.0%, but the outer districts are much more heterogenous, so we would need to look on these in detail
* The are is some detached housing, but normally only dispersed among other individual housing. When it comes to the difference between the more posh individual housing quarters (parts of Bogenhausen, Harlaching, Solln, Obermenzing, Gern, Waldtrudering etc.) and the more middle-class quarters, there are some differences, but then you find so many counterexamples...
* There seems to be a tendence towards the AfD in some peripheral and semi-peripheral not-so-well-off quarters, but these are not individual housing, but instead they often look like Frankfurt's SPD strongholds.
* Northern Bogenhausen is a bit less posh than Western Bogenhausen and has higher AfD results, though Bogenhausen as a whole was also an FDP stronghold in 2009.

It's really a mess, particularly compared to other parties of the same size (FDP, Linke) or smaller parties (Pirates, Nazis), which have clearer patterns.
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2013, 04:02:13 pm »

Likelihood of a Grand coalition raises day by day and must be at 90% right now.

And it makes sense, really. It's the coalition where everbody's happy or the least unhappy. Merkel gets to remain Chancellor, the SPD gets the Ministry of Finance, the Greens aren't forced to govern with the CDU, the CSU isn't forced to govern with the Greens, the Left isn't forced to govern with the SPD, and everbody else gets a minimum wage.
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2013, 07:06:55 pm »

SPD members, on the other hand, don't support a Grand coalition, at least as far as I can tell.

If the party members have the final say, as promised, this will cause huge problems for the leadership. In case the coalition proposal is dismissed, the leaders will of course have to resign and the party will be in disarray. If it's narrowly approved, this will also weaken the party and the new government as a whole. An overwhelming vote in favour of a new Grand coalition, though, is something I really can't imagine.

So I wonder what this membership survey is all about. From a tactical point of view, it's absolute rubbish. 

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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2013, 03:15:57 am »

SPD members, on the other hand, don't support a Grand coalition, at least as far as I can tell.

If the party members have the final say, as promised, this will cause huge problems for the leadership. In case the coalition proposal is dismissed, the leaders will of course have to resign and the party will be in disarray. If it's narrowly approved, this will also weaken the party and the new government as a whole. An overwhelming vote in favour of a new Grand coalition, though, is something I really can't imagine.

So I wonder what this membership survey is all about. From a tactical point of view, it
's absolute rubbish. 


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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2013, 12:54:01 pm »

From all my county-level number crunching in process, here  some interim findings on the impact of vote-by mail, based on 2 counties (Lübeck city, Stade I-Rotenburg II):

Both the FDP and the Greens under-performed on election day compared to vote by mail. The Greens underperformed by some 2.5%, resulting in their precinct results being some 0.5% below their total share. In the case of the FDP, their voting day underperformance is around 2%, reducing their precinct results by some 0.4%.

Conversely, AfD, Linke and SPD over-performed on election day. In the case of AfD, voting day over performance is around 1% (0.2% impact on total, which would have had them entering the Bundestag). For the Linke, the effect is much more pronounced in Lübeck (+2.4) than in Stade-Rotenburg (+0.9). The same applies to the SPD (Lübeck +4.3, Stade +1.4).

The CDU  under-performed in Lübeck (-3.5%). but not in Stade-Rotenburg (+0.6).

The sample is a bit small to already draw conclusions. Moreover, Grüne should generally over-perform in vote-by-mail: Students still registered to vote with their parents, younger voters going on holiday when school vacations have finished, etc. The Pirates, b.t.w., also overperformed in vote-by-mail. In the case of the FDP, you as well have some "early autumn holidays" effect among their elder, affluent clientele that should drive up their vote-by-mail.
Nevertheless, the observation may indicate some last-minute swings from Grüne to Linke and SPD, and from  FDP to CDU and AfD (possibly also an urban CDU->SPD swing), and needs to be considered when looking at my precinct maps to come.
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2013, 01:13:13 pm »

In Munich much of the AfD voting pattern seems to be random noise. I will try to explain what I mean:
Non-postal precincts had on average 557 active voters. The average of the AfD in non-postal precincts was 5.0% (including postal votes it was 4.5%). So let's assume a precincts of 557 and every voter votes AfD with a probability of 5.0%. Then the expectation would be 27.85 votes, but only ca. half of the time would the result lie in the bracket 25 - 31. And if we would consider family members and neighbors influencing each other, the bracket would be even wider.
In reality half of the non-postal precinct results lie in the bracket 4.2%-5.9%, which is a bit more than we had pure random noise distrubution, but still...

So, what remains?
* Inner-city districts, which mostly are Green strongholds, have relatively weak AfD results: Ludwigsvorstadt-Isarvorstadt at 3.3% (compared to 4.5%), Schwanthalerhöhe at 3.4%, Au-Haidhausen at 3.6% etc.
* On the other hand the district with the highest AfD percentage (5.2%) is Bogenhausen, many other districts are at 5.1% or 5.0%, but the outer districts are much more heterogenous, so we would need to look on these in detail
* The are is some detached housing, but normally only dispersed among other individual housing. When it comes to the difference between the more posh individual housing quarters (parts of Bogenhausen, Harlaching, Solln, Obermenzing, Gern, Waldtrudering etc.) and the more middle-class quarters, there are some differences, but then you find so many counterexamples...
* There seems to be a tendence towards the AfD in some peripheral and semi-peripheral not-so-well-off quarters, but these are not individual housing, but instead they often look like Frankfurt's SPD strongholds.
* Northern Bogenhausen is a bit less posh than Western Bogenhausen and has higher AfD results, though Bogenhausen as a whole was also an FDP stronghold in 2009.

It's really a mess, particularly compared to other parties of the same size (FDP, Linke) or smaller parties (Pirates, Nazis), which have clearer patterns.
Yes. This sounds right to me.
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2013, 02:25:01 pm »





Kassel, winning margin, turnout, SPD, CDU, Greens, Left, FDP, AfD but don't ask me for the exact keys (except the first one, which is as for WI) because I'd have to reconstruct them from the results myself. Sad I do remember turnout runs in five point steps from 50+ to 80+. The area that looks like an exclave is part of the city, but is uninhabited and excluded from the borough organization. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%B6nche
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