Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 23, 2019, 08:27:57 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Eli Gorbinsky)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 177 Print
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 471832 times)
ERvND
Full Member
***
Posts: 143
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: December 02, 2013, 04:44:48 pm »


Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.... 
So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections
. Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.

Do your fellow party members that you've spoken to also acknowledge this or are many too deluded?

In this situation, one might expect a great extent of delusion, but interestingly enough, most party members I have spoken to agree with me and acknowledge that the current crisis of Social Democracy is not a temporary, but a fundamental phenomenon.

Some are very emotional about the impending development, but a pragmatic point of view prevails. Of course, most party members are over 65 years old (the SPD membership is already disproportionally old), so it's comprehensible that they have no hope to stop the overall trend, when at the same time they simply carry on and anticipate they won't live long enough to see the end of the party.  
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 62,506
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: December 02, 2013, 04:59:25 pm »

You've made that case a lot but have yet to come up with a shred of credible evidence for it. A pattern that I'm also very familiar with.
Logged
Hifly
hifly15
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,941


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: December 02, 2013, 05:01:57 pm »

As the population becomes richer and more educated over time, this can surely help erode SPD support.
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,015
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: December 02, 2013, 05:33:35 pm »

Well, it's sure than if you want to copy the exact same social democracy than in the 70's, this won't work. Ideologies change over time. Anyways, right now European Social Democracy is mostly slowing down neoliberalism, which isn't inspiring. Social Democracy has to reinvent itself, like Conservatism/Christian Democracy did.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,649
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: December 02, 2013, 05:46:00 pm »

I don't see the SPD collapsing. Who'd replace them as the CDU's centre-left (broadly speaking) rival?
Logged
ERvND
Full Member
***
Posts: 143
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: December 02, 2013, 06:23:47 pm »
« Edited: December 02, 2013, 06:26:23 pm by ERvND »

When referring to personal encounters with fellow party members, I am of course "locally biased". It's a fact that where I live - Bavaria - the erosion of the party is already far advanced. There are towns of more than 10,000 people where the local chapter consists of five to ten members, all over the age of 65. It's entirely obvious that in ten to fifteen years' time, the SPD will have vanished outside the big cities.

The CSU, in contrast, is stronger than ever. They also lose members, but at a slower rate; moreover, their membership is younger and more diverse. Above all, they have made it very clear that they need no centre-left rival at all, as they provide room for almost every demographic and social group themselves.

I'm aware that all of this is only anecdotal evidence. If you look around, however, you'll discern the same pattern all over Germany, if not Europe.

The main problem - here and everywhere - is really of a sociological nature. There is simply no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party. Social Democracy has fulfilled its tasks, hereby becoming superfluous. I know there is always the possibility of changes in the future, and I won't deny the trend might reverse some day. But right now, I simply see no starting point for such a shift.
Logged
Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,877
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: December 02, 2013, 06:59:08 pm »

The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 62,506
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: December 02, 2013, 07:52:18 pm »
« Edited: December 02, 2013, 07:56:00 pm by Sibboleth »

The main problem - here and everywhere - is really of a sociological nature. There is simply no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party. Social Democracy has fulfilled its tasks, hereby becoming superfluous. I know there is always the possibility of changes in the future, and I won't deny the trend might reverse some day. But right now, I simply see no starting point for such a shift.

I am familiar with this argument as it is one that people have been making for nearly sixty years. I believe that this fact speaks for itself.

It is true, of course, that the great changes in the economic, political, ideological and social structures of 'the West' over the past thirty or so years have been highly damaging to the electoral prospects of most socialist parties. It would, of course, be pointless and delusional to deny this (which is why no one actually does). But there is a fundamental difference between electoral decline as a result of a changing 'climate' and political death (or near death) as a result of it. Notably the parties that the latter applied (apply) to were (are) the various Communist ones. They had their feet cut from under them, poor devils (not that they were actually poor, of course, lol).

Moreover, these huge changes are over now (by and large). You can't make sweeping claims about the future based on fundamental changes that have already happened. Additionally, you have to distinguish between long term decline caused by factors out of the control of the parties in question, and poor electoral performances caused by mistakes in government (particularly those of the type that alienate natural supporters. And it is undeniably true that social democratic governments have been 'good' at doing that lately), or lousy political strategies or whatever. Finally, the claim that there is 'no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party' is beyond absurd. Take a proper look around you for God's sake.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 62,506
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: December 02, 2013, 07:53:11 pm »

The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

One wonders what sort of people it is that Trotskyist sects prefer, or even if they are in any position to lecture others on keeping popular support.
Logged
Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,877
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: December 03, 2013, 06:11:11 am »

The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

One wonders what sort of people it is that Trotskyist sects prefer, or even if they are in any position to lecture others on keeping popular support.
I am a part of the Left Front and I have nothing to be ashamed of in matters of popular support, thank you. Wink
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: December 03, 2013, 10:06:53 am »

The grand coalition wants to more strongly regulate prostitution.

http://www.dw.de/combating-prostitution/a-17265908
Logged
Franknburger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,404
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: December 03, 2013, 12:05:37 pm »
« Edited: December 03, 2013, 12:09:44 pm by Franknburger »

In don't think the SPD is doomed for extinction. It has a "natural" political base - non-academic professionals in the lower to middle income groups - and the potential to reach out into other voter segments (immigrants, single mothers, academics, etc.). Whether the natural base is to decline further in sociological relevance is also debatable. More likely, it will rather transform from "male blue collar" to "female white coat". But employment wise, at least the latter should rather grow, especially in health and care, alongside with demographical change.
 
As such, the SPD is no more doomed than the CDU, whose natural bases (catholics, rural population) are also declining. While it may be true that the SPD is having problems in small town Bavaria (and Saxony, possibly Baden-Würtemberg, etc.), it is still having considerable electoral appeal in small towns elsewhere, e.g. Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, NRW, Saarland. The CDU, OTOH, is almost dead in the inner cities (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt), areas that in future will gain further relevance in relation to the gradually de-populating countryside. The fight will be for the suburbs, strength or weakness there should be the benchmark to judge on a party's perspective.

I see the German political structure transforming from a FPTP (US/UK) model with two competing main parties to a Scandinavian pattern, with 5-7 relevant parties differentiated across the whole political spectrum. In such a spectrum, leadership means some 30%+ vote share, and a call on chancellorship in a 2-4 party coalition. Such a perspective is anything but out of reach for the SPD. With AfD, FDP, maybe FW possibly (re-)gaining strength, the CDU may find themselves in a similar position in 2017.

The grand coalition, and the membership vote, forces the SPD to recognise and discuss these trends. The "Gallic village"  approach as defender of progress against social conservatism and big business did not work electorally, now it has also out served for uniting the party itself. Review is overdue and should already have taken place 2005-2009.

In that context, I find your statements, ERvND, quite telling. Obviously, the SPD (membership) is still in the middle of the "acceptance" phase, and not yet at the point where programmatic implications are being discussed:
-  Popular mood against tax increases and "bigger government" ultimately killed the red-green perspective, even though other parts of the social agenda (child care, minimum wage) enjoyed majority support. Will the SPD need to review positions on taxation and government role (as the Greens are in the process of doing)?
- Continue the fight with the CDU on the pensioners' vote, or give it up and focus on younger generations instead?
- Maintain the mental focus on blue-collar "working class" males, or refocus on white-coat female (part-time) employment, and the real-existing poverty, namely single mothers?
- Large-scale infrastructure projects are neither popular nor have worked particularly well over the last years - so what?
- Pro-coal or pro-wind?
- Crime prevention/ fight against terrorism, or civil rights / privacy?

In any case, the current discussion within the SPD is overdue and positive, not only for the party, but for the electoral landscape as a whole. It will be interesting to see how far it goes, and what ultimately comes out of it.
Logged
palandio
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 601


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: December 03, 2013, 04:37:49 pm »

Don't forget "the crisis" as a key electoral issue. The federal election has been a plebiscite for Merkel's and Schäuble's solutions to the Euro crisis (which are totally wrong IMO, but I don't count). SPD and Greens were very weak on this issue.
You see that SPD and Greens did win in Lower Saxony and up to a certain degree also in Hesse, Bavaria was bad, but maybe only a return to the mean. SPD and Greens are structurally not in such a bad position.
Logged
Swedish Austerity Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,256
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: December 03, 2013, 06:05:05 pm »

Two years or so ago I predicted that the SDP would, if not in the 2013 at least in the following election, be over-taken by the Greens as the major party of the left.

Al told me off with the same arguments he is using now. And guess what happened.

I was completly incorrect, and he was right. I would keep that in mind if I were arguing with him now. 
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: December 07, 2013, 07:18:38 am »

The Union would be close to an absolute majority again according to Infratest dimap:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 3%
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: December 07, 2013, 07:25:47 am »

Also 2 new state polls:

Berlin (Forsa):

CDU: 28%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 17%
Linke: 15%

AfD: 4%
Piraten: 4%


Brandenburg (Infratest dimap):
SPD: 32%
CDU: 30% (keep in mind they were at 19% last election)
Linke: 22%
Grüne: 6%

AfD: 3%
FDP: 2%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,680
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: December 11, 2013, 02:58:56 am »

The CDU has overtaken the SPD in NRW:



CDU gains 12 points in the past year and a half ...

Approval ratings of politicians:

Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: December 13, 2013, 05:02:06 am »

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,680
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: December 13, 2013, 05:36:20 am »

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: December 13, 2013, 06:41:19 am »

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES... Smiley
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,680
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: December 13, 2013, 06:43:17 am »

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES... Smiley

In the unlikely event that the SPD base says NO, would there be immediate new elections, or would they just try to form a new coalition instead ?
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: December 13, 2013, 06:45:07 am »

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES... Smiley

In the unlikely event that the SPD base says NO, would there be immediate new elections, or would they just try to form a new coalition instead ?

Nobody knows. "Es gibt keinen Plan B" is what everyone is saying. I think CDU/CSU and Greens would at least have another talk with each other before going to new elections, though.
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 420


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: December 13, 2013, 10:10:36 am »

There is now way for new elections without doing the "Try-to-elect-a-chancellor"-Thing.

At first, the president has to present a candidate for the election and the first round of voting ist on this candidate only, which has to get an absolute majority of the Bundestag members. (There is a constitutional gap, so it is not stated, at which point of time the president has to propose somebody, so in theory he could just sit the four years out). The question is, if he would, after consultations with the parties, make a real attempt or if he just would sacrifice a pawn
If their is no majority, there is a second round (technically a two-week-phase of 2nd rounds), in which everybody can be proposed by everybody (or at least every parliamentary group), but still has to get an absolute majority of the Bundestag members.

When this phase is over and nobody got elected, there would be a third round "immidiately". If somebody get's the majority there, he or she is elected. If not, the ball is in the president's field again and he has to decide wheither to appoint the leading candidate or to dissolve the Bundestag and call for new federal elections.

The main question would be, if the CDU/CSU was to try a minorty-gouvernment for some time, and put up a vote-of-confidence at some time they wish or if they would go for new elections outright.

I guess we would finally see Merkel lose some elections, because the risk of putting up a sacrificial pawn would be he got elected by the left parties just to damage Merkel. SPD can't really put up a candidate for there is a tiny risk at getting elected and heaving to try to put some administration together or lose a vote of confidence quickly.

This would be some entertaining weeks in political Germany.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,680
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #148 on: December 13, 2013, 12:43:14 pm »

It looks like the SPD membership vote will be announced tomorrow, not today.

They have to transport the 350.000 postal votes to a former train station in Berlin, in which they can count about 40.000 ballots per hour.

Results are then expected in the evening.
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #149 on: December 13, 2013, 12:47:22 pm »

It looks like the SPD membership vote will be announced tomorrow, not today.

They have to transport the 350.000 postal votes to a former train station in Berlin, in which they can count about 40.000 ballots per hour.

Results are then expected in the evening.

Yes. Don't know why I thought it was today.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 177 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC