German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

AfD @ 6% looks most accurate, because the district of Altona is the least-counted so far and the AfD gets only 5.1% there.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to come in at ca. 54-55%, a minus of 3% compared with 2011.

[Tender Branson]

77% counted:

46.2% SPD
16.2% CDU
11.6% Greens
  8.3% Left
  7.3% FDP
  6.3% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

[Tender Branson]

Looks like SPD+Green+Left might not net that much on top of 2011 and might end up losing a bit.    Also both AfD and FDP is doing better than pre-election polls which is a surprise.  I would think one of the two will do better than pre-election polls but for both to do so is a surprise.

Well, the FDP did better than expected because Katja Suding is a great lead candidate (with hot legs !).

And the AfD might or might not have benefitted from the Copenhagen attacks, who knows ? Maybe it was also just their usual underpolling ahead of an election.

[Tender Branson]

Latest ZDF projections has FDP 7.4 and AfD at 6.1.  I always saw AfD being able to do well by cannibalizing FDP votes which is why I thought it was not possible for both to exceed pre-election polls.  Getting votes from CDU did not look likely to me giving how low they went in 2011 and that CDU is still riding high nationally.  Seems like that is what took place with FDP and AfD both gaining from CDU.   

Voter streams for AfD (2011 voters => 2015 AfD vote):



The 2015 AfD-vote consists mostly of former voters of "other parties" (remember that the NPD only has 0.3% right now, but 0.9% in 2011).

Followed by former CDU, SPD and non-voters.

[Tender Branson]

93% counted:

45.8% SPD
16.0% CDU
12.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  7.4% FDP
  6.1% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

[Tender Branson]

93% counted:

45.8% SPD
16.0% CDU
12.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  7.4% FDP
  6.1% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

my prediction:

46.0% SPD (-2.5%) *nailed it
18.0% CDU (-4.0%) * off by 2.0
12.0% Greens (+1.0%) *nailed it
  8.5% Left (+2.0%) *nailed it
  5.5% FDP (-1.0%) *off by 2.0
  5.5% AfD (+5.5%) * off by 0.5
  4.5% Others * off by 0.5

Turnout: 55% (-2%) *nailed it

[Tender Branson]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

[Tender Branson]

Final Hamburg results:

45.7% SPD (-2.7%)
15.9% CDU (-6.0%)
12.3% Greens (+1.1%)
  8.5% Left (+2.1%)
  7.4% FDP (+0.7%)
  6.1% AfD (+6.1%)
  1.6% Pirates (-0.5%)
  0.9% The Party (+0.2%)
  0.5% New Liberals (+0.5%)
  0.4% ÖDP (+0.1%)
  0.3% NPD (-0.6%)
  0.3% Retirees (-0.2%)
  0.2% HHBL (+0.2%)
  0.0% Others (-1.0%)

Turnout: 56.9% (-0.4%)

[Tender Branson]

Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

[Tender Branson]

Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

Do you know how to find the precinct results?

They are not on the map, only in tabular form:

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahltyp=3

Go to "Auszählungsstand" and click on "Stimmbezirke".

Choose either "Wahlkreisliste" or "Landesliste".

[Tender Branson]

You can also click on the (+) signs on the left side of the main page and the precincts will open.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting also that the Left did best in the districts just south of the city-center with the highest migration background (which are also the poorest), and not the Greens or the SPD.

Go to "Themen" and select "Sozialstruktur":

https://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_HH_2015_WK_Struktur/atlas.html

[Tender Branson]

Finally !

A poll for Bremen has been released, which has state elections next month.

Infratest Dimap:



The current government is SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

The final 2 Bremen polls for the state election next Sunday are out.

Average of the ARD/ZDF polls:

37.0% SPD (-1.5% compared with 2010 election)
22.5% CDU (+2.0)
15.5% Greens (-7.0%)
  8.5% Left (+3.0%)
  5.5% FDP (+3.0%)
  5.0% AfD (+5.0%)
  3.0% BiW (-0.5%)
  3.0% Others (-4.0%)

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Bremen state election tomorrow:

35.7% SPD
22.6% CDU
14.8% Greens
  8.9% Left
  6.6% FDP
  5.1% AfD
  3.2% BiW
  3.1% Others

Turnout: 55%

[Tender Branson]

Katja Suding's blonde "twin sister" in Bremen (on the way to lead the revival of the FDP there):

 

 

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is on track for a new record low in the Bremen state election:

45-50%

Polls close in 2 hours.

[Tender Branson]

1st ZDF projection:



1st ARD projection:

[Tender Branson]

"Citizens in Rage" (BiW) will definitely get a seat once again, because they are at 6% in Bremerhaven, despite only polling 3% in all of Bremen state:

[Tender Branson]

Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
26% Greens
20% SPD
  4% FDP
  4% Left
  4% AfD
  4% Others

Because FDP, Left and AfD are all below the 5% threshold, there's a chance the current Green-SPD coalition may continue their work.

[Tender Branson]

FDP surges to 7% in a new federal poll by FORSA, while CDU/CSU drop below 40%:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU-FDP would now be possible again at the federal level, because the FDP has risen to 5% and the AfD dropped back to 4% in the latest polls:

GMS Poll

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
10% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% AfD
  6% Others

47-43 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

[Tender Branson]

so basically AfD becomes the new NPD? (more than it already was, i mean)

No.

care to explain?

Because the AfD with Petry is now more like Germany's FPÖ-lite. The NPD is much more extreme.

[Tender Branson]

Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

How do we best translate this new party name into English for our English-speaking friends on here ?

"Alliance for Progress & Awakening" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Upswing" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Departure" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Decampment" ?

"Alliance for Progress & Liftoff" ?

Is there any real English term for the word "Aufbruch" ?