German Elections & Politics

[DL]

The AfD are still a long, long way from the 45% or so they would need to be in government...there is still no mathematical way anyone other than Merkel is chancellor after the election.

[Tender Branson]

First Infratest Dimap/ARD poll of the election year 2017 (n=1505, Jan. 2-4):

Federal voting intentions



Job approval of major politicians



Job approval of the CDU/CSU/SPD government



Job approval of the CDU/CSU/SPD government, by party



Most important issues for 2017



40% refugees/immigration
11% security
  7% social policies

How much trust do you have in the following institutions ?



88-11 The police
54-45 The federal government
36-54 The German intelligence services

Does Germany have advantages or disadvantages from immigration ?



Does Germany have advantages or disadvantages from immigration ? By party.



Immigration: I have concerns that ...



62-36 crime will rise
55-43 the influence of Islam in Germany will become too strong
18-81 that competition for jobs will increase

Is the situation for people like you better now than 50 years ago ?



58% better
11% the same
17% worse
13% cannot judge

Is the situation for people like you better now than 50 years ago ? By party.



Do you personally feel safe and secure in Germany ?



73-26 Yes

Do you personally feel safe and secure in Germany ? By party.



Opinions about the terror threat:



79-19 video surveillance should be increased
57-39 generally, the country is well-prepared to deal with terrorist attacks
43-56 I'm more vigilant now and look for suspicious persons and items
36-62 I now avoid big masses of people, such as train stations etc.

[rob in cal]

   The party breakdown by whether immigration is advantageous or not is interesting. I'm surprised that so many Green voters viewed it negatively, and would have thought that Linke supporters would have been a little less supportive as well.

[jaichind]

   The party breakdown by whether immigration is advantageous or not is interesting. I'm surprised that so many Green voters viewed it negatively, and would have thought that Linke supporters would have been a little less supportive as well.

I was more surprised at the FDP voter's position that 59% think immigration would be negative for Germany.  If this poll is accurate then FDP is in trouble.  63% of FDP voters approve of the CDU/CSU-SPD government yet 59% think immigration  is negative for Germany.  There is a risk that the FDP vote will splinter to CDU/CSU and AfD.

[Tender Branson]

   The party breakdown by whether immigration is advantageous or not is interesting. I'm surprised that so many Green voters viewed it negatively, and would have thought that Linke supporters would have been a little less supportive as well.

I'd be one of them.

[Zinneke]

   The party breakdown by whether immigration is advantageous or not is interesting. I'm surprised that so many Green voters viewed it negatively, and would have thought that Linke supporters would have been a little less supportive as well.

I'd be one of them.

[Beagle]

Uh, is there anything specific about 1967 that would make it a reference point for quality of life? And what on earth are the pollsters playing at with this question? Are the Wirtschaftswunder years considered some golden age for living standards now?

Also, I'm amazed that two in three Green voters and one in three Left voters approves of the Merkel government. Something's surely wrong. Given de Maziere's uptick in approval, is this a rally to the flag after the Berlin attack?

[Bumaye]

Uh, is there anything specific about 1967 that would make it a reference point for quality of life?

 
 
Not in quality but the society changed drastically after the protests of 1968. Racism and Sexism all of a sudden were bad things, some people are angry about that till today.   
 
_____________ 
 
Todays survey by Civey for the newspaper "Tagesspiegel": 
 
CDU: 34,3% 
SPD: 20,7% 
AfD: 14% 
Linke: 10,2% 
Grüne 10,1% 
FDP: 6% 
Others: 4,7% 
 
Funny actually that through the sheer existence of the AfD the AfD voters get either the same again or the same with more feminism and gay rights. 
 
By the way since Die Linke decided to nominate Wagenknecht and the SPD most likely went for Gabriel I will probably vote Green in November.

[Intell]

Uh, is there anything specific about 1967 that would make it a reference point for quality of life?

 
 
Not in quality but the society changed drastically after the protests of 1968. Racism and Sexism all of a sudden were bad things, some people are angry about that till today.   
 
_____________ 
 
Todays survey by Civey for the newspaper "Tagesspiegel": 
 
CDU: 34,3% 
SPD: 20,7% 
AfD: 14% 
Linke: 10,2% 
Grüne 10,1% 
FDP: 6% 
Others: 4,7% 
 
Funny actually that through the sheer existence of the AfD the AfD voters get either the same again or the same with more feminism and gay rights. 
 
By the way since Die Linke decided to nominate Wagenknecht and the SPD most likely went for Gabriel I will probably vote Green in November.

What's exactly wrong with her? Not supporting an utterly naive policy on asylum seekers, that's bound to get the far right on the rise. Wagenknecht, one of the best politicians in Germany and in the EU as a whole.

:/

[Bumaye]

What's exactly wrong with her? Not supporting an utterly naive policy on asylum seekers, that's bound to get the far right on the rise.

 
 
When your policies are determined by how to get a lot of votes instead of your convictions then you are a pretty bad socialist. People like Rosa Luxemburg, Otto Wels and Karl Liebknecht died for what they believe in, Wagenknecht on the other hand picks up far right positions for a percentage point in the polls.   
 
You know where she gave her first interview after being crowned candidate of Die Linke? The German state news? A renowned newspaper like Süddeutsche or Zeit? No, Russia Today. Her affiliation towards Moscow is widely known and with it her position towards the US. Putin and Assad can bomb East Aleppo to the ground but for Mrs. Wagenknecht that is obviously only the fault of the US. Of course she also supported the referendum in Crimea despite armed gunman in every polling station. International agreements like the Budapest Memorandum? Who gives a sh**t! 
 
But wait, there is one American politician she showed appreciations for before. It's an old weirdo called Donald Trump. She praised him because he understood that large investments in infrastructure are needed. Well yeah, but his biggest and only tangible infrastructure project is a ing stupid wall at the Mexican border. 
 
Now let's talk about her "realistic asylum policy". A sentence she repeated over and over again is that "Who missuses his guest right shall lose his guest right." But we are not talking about guest right here, asylum is a human right and deporting people into war zones is against our constitution as Karlsruhe already decided. Then she is talking about limits for asylum - limiting a human right? And next we put a limit on free speech and equality? But I mean who sh**ts on Budapest and Schengen probably sh**ts on Geneva as well. Besides that she hasn't named anything specific to fix the situation, just populism, no ideas. 

Last but not least I could talk about her connections to conspiracy networks with her support for the "Winter of peace" led by neonazis, antisemites and other pests but I don't wanna waste more of my time with "one of the best politicians in Europe".

[Beezer]

Asylum is a human right? Where in the refugee convention does it state that a refugee is allowed to move to a country of their choice?

All Germany has to do is apply the constitution on this topic and the problem's solved. No hint of a human rights violation.

[Intell]

What's exactly wrong with her? Not supporting an utterly naive policy on asylum seekers, that's bound to get the far right on the rise.

 
 
When your policies are determined by how to get a lot of votes instead of your convictions then you are a pretty bad socialist. People like Rosa Luxemburg, Otto Wels and Karl Liebknecht died for what they believe in, Wagenknecht on the other hand picks up far right positions for a percentage point in the polls.   
 
You know where she gave her first interview after being crowned candidate of Die Linke? The German state news? A renowned newspaper like Süddeutsche or Zeit? No, Russia Today. Her affiliation towards Moscow is widely known and with it her position towards the US. Putin and Assad can bomb East Aleppo to the ground but for Mrs. Wagenknecht that is obviously only the fault of the US. Of course she also supported the referendum in Crimea despite armed gunman in every polling station. International agreements like the Budapest Memorandum? Who gives a sh**t! 
 
But wait, there is one American politician she showed appreciations for before. It's an old weirdo called Donald Trump. She praised him because he understood that large investments in infrastructure are needed. Well yeah, but his biggest and only tangible infrastructure project is a ing stupid wall at the Mexican border. 
 
Now let's talk about her "realistic asylum policy". A sentence she repeated over and over again is that "Who missuses his guest right shall lose his guest right." But we are not talking about guest right here, asylum is a human right and deporting people into war zones is against our constitution as Karlsruhe already decided. Then she is talking about limits for asylum - limiting a human right? And next we put a limit on free speech and equality? But I mean who sh**ts on Budapest and Schengen probably sh**ts on Geneva as well. Besides that she hasn't named anything specific to fix the situation, just populism, no ideas. 

Her policies, are socialist, and even more so than the greens, you get into alliances into CDU-CSU, and implement austerity on the backs of the poor, which is why she criticized the left-wing government of Berlin, which while claiming to be leftist, offered no real solutions apart fro the status quo of austerity and neoliberalism.

Her position on the US, and Russia, I could care less. It was the US, who started this whole situation in syria, in a war that it has no business getting involved in.

On the Ukrainian solution, I could also care less, as it is a battle between NATO expansion and Russian expansion, two bad sides, as the US broke also broke on the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe. Both sides are awful and the least thing we should be doing is supporting an Ukrainian government with significant racist, and fascist elements in it.

"Who misuses his guest right shall lose his guest right." Whoever misuses their privilege, granted by the german government for refuge should lose their right to live in Germany, and they should be deported, or face lengthy jail sentence. Those who break the laws of their host country, and commit a crime have lost their right to asylum in such a country, that is simple, there is nothing in Geneva that says otherwise. Refugees in need of help, should be accepted into Germany, in a controlled with thorough checks, once accepted if committed crimes, they have lost their status as a genuine refugee, and can be deported, as there are lots more genuine people in Syria, that could be granted refuge that criminals.d

[palandio]

Funny actually that through the sheer existence of the AfD the AfD voters get either the same again or the same with more feminism and gay rights. 

The point could be made that the sheer existence of the AfD and its electoral results have shifted the political discourse on immigration in Germany towards the right much more than most would have immagined two years ago.
Also, while I would not exclude a possible majority for black-green, at the moment the numbers are just not there and I think that speculation about black-green before the election could hurt both CDU/CSU and Greens. And again the sheer existence of the AfD might make black-green less palatable to the CDU/CSU than a renewed grand coalition, because I assume that the (federal) Greens are more toxic for the typical CDU/CSU-AfD swing voter than the SPD.

[Beezer]

Poor SPD...

[rob in cal]

    If somehow the CSU didn't get a majority in the next Bayern Landtag election and the results were similar to the current poll (say the Linke and FDP got seats in this scenario), would we see a CSU FDP coalition or would a lot of the CSU want to try a CSU AFD coalition?

[Tender Branson]

    If somehow the CSU didn't get a majority in the next Bayern Landtag election and the results were similar to the current poll (say the Linke and FDP got seats in this scenario), would we see a CSU FDP coalition or would a lot of the CSU want to try a CSU AFD coalition?

That depends on some factors: For example, current Gov. Seehofer has announced that he won't run for re-election in 2018. The most likely successor will be Markus Söder, who is the overwhelming favourite not only among all people polled, but especially among CSU-voters, according to the poll above.

Söder is AfD-light in his talk and policies, so he could win back some AfD-voters over the next 1.5 years, which means the CSU won't need a coalition partner anyway.

If the CSU somehow loses their majority (which I doubt, 70% of voters are happy with the current CSU-government performance), the AfD is certainly an option for the Söder-CSU, but he could easily pick the FDP too (they would make no noise in his coalition), while the SPD and AfD would be too demanding partners.

[Klartext89]

The CSU is the "just talk, no action" party, they would prefer to work with the FDP or the FW (mostly same as CSU) instead of really having to take actions in a CSU-AfD-Coalition.

And also it would be tactically bad for CSU to work with AfD and show everyone that they are quite the opposite of what the left-wing media are portraying them. The AfD would be totally established and would easily become the second strongest party in Germany.

Also mentioning that there are rumours of well informed people that the AfD has an Agreement that they only take part in a government in which they are the strongest party.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

New parties in Germany have to sit in Lantags for about a decade making sure are as dethreatening as possible before other parties touch them. The AfD will have to go through a period as Grune did before any party - even the CSU - will touch them.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

[Lord Halifax]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-German, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

how?

[ApatheticAustrian]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

[Lord Halifax]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

[Sozialliberal]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

Right, but that doesn't mean that racism is a "traditional value" of Germany. This is absurd. Ethnic minorities have been living in Germany for centuries.

What I actually wanted to post about: I discovered a speech by Alexander Hold, my favourite candidate by far in the upcoming presidential election, and I must say that it's truly brilliant and it reinforced my belief that he would make an excellent president. Certainly much better than Gauck, Wulff or Köhler. Too bad that I can't vote for him because the president isn't elected by popular vote (yet).

So I wanted to share my translation of his speech with you:

Alexander Hold (candidate of the Free Voters) on the presidential election;
"Alright, so Frank-Walter Steinmeier is going to be president without a doubt. No, not alright at all. Not because party-political calculations have often been more important to him than Germany's interests in foreign policy until now. Or because he hasn't exactly proven to be a great diplomat lately: He's made disparaging remarks about the Briton Boris Johnson, has called him irresponsible, outrageous, and has bluffed that he should get lost, only to realize that he will have to face him as the future foreign minister a few days later. Now he will have to face Donald Trump soon, who, as is known, can be very touchy when people are insolent to him. What will he [Trump] think about the fact that his German counterpart has called him a hate preacher recently?

But Mr Steinmeier's qualities are not what I'm concerned about. What's much more upsetting is that CDU/CSU haven't found anybody in their ranks who thinks that they can outface the candidate Steinmeier. CDU/CSU have over 150 seats more than the SPD in the Federal Assembly, and yet they let Sigmar Gabriel force his candidate on them. 'Well, if that's what Mrs Merkel wants.', you could say. But what Mrs Merkel wants shouldn't be the issue. It should not be about coalition arithmetic or retention of power. How can we point our fingers at underdeveloped democracies when the election of the head of state in Germany is arranged by three people behind closed doors months before? Democracy thrives on being able to make a choice, on offering a range of different worldviews, different goals and, above all, on different candidates. The fact that nobody in the CDU/CSU wants to get involved in an inconvenient contest with the risk of a defeat doesn't really reflect a steadfast commitment to democracy. After all, a defeat is not failure by a long shot but part of the game. That's true for politics as well as for football. If it were otherwise, no football club would play against the FC Bayern Munich, and no party other than the CSU would take part in Bavarian state elections. But what keeps both sports and democracy going is the courage to face defeat and, what's even more important, the chance of a surprise.

A pre-arranged presidential election won't result in a 'We all love each other.' mood in Germany. The only ones who will move closer together are those who already had the feeling that politics is nothing more than a small elitist circle who arrange everything among themselves and couldn't care less about the people. The people who feel neither understood nor represented are sadly becoming more and more with each day, particularly when a democracy doesn't offer a democratic contest any longer. That is the main reason why we can't be satisfied with the consensus candidate Steinmeier."

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXRDciwIL2o

[Lord Halifax]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

Right, but that doesn't mean that racism is a "traditional value" of Germany. This is absurd. Ethnic minorities have been living in Germany for centuries.

You are putting words in my mouth. The ethnic minorities before the 60s were Europeans (Poles, French, Danes, Jews) and oppressed during the empire (and obviously under the Nazi regime). Post-war Germany was quite homogenous up to the 60s and retained its ethnically based national identity until recently. The former GDR to an even higher degree. The multikulti experiment is quite recent and artificial to many people.

[Lord Halifax]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

Right, but that doesn't mean that racism is a "traditional value" of Germany. This is absurd. Ethnic minorities have been living in Germany for centuries.

You are putting words in my mouth. The ethnic minorities before the 60s were Europeans. Poles, French, Danes, Jews were oppressed during the empire (and the remaining ones obviously under the Nazi regime). Post-war Germany was quite homogenous up to the 60s and retained its ethnically based national identity until recently. The former GDR to an even higher degree. The multikulti experiment is quite recent and artificial to many people.