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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 403617 times)
palandio
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« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2013, 02:38:58 pm »

@ Franknburger: Good observations. It's difficult though to differenciate between two effects:
1) Last-minute swings
2) Different political orientation of mail-voters and non-mail-voters.
For example in Munich the CSU generally overperforms among mail-voters. More so in 2009 (mail-voters 35.4%, non-mail-voters 30.3%), because there might have been a last-minute swing to the FDP. Less so in 2013 (mail-voters 38.8%, non-mail-voters 37.1%), likely because of a small last-minute swing towards the CSU.
On the other hand the SPD always overperforms among non-mail-voters. In 2009: 20.7% vs. 16.7%. In 2013: 25.5% vs. 21.5%.
The Greens in 2009 had 17.8% among mail-voters and 17.4% among non-mail-voters. In 2013: 15.2% vs. 13.3%, sign of a last-minute swing away from them.
The Linke in 2009 had 5.3% among mail-voters, but 7.5% among non-mail-voters. In 2013: 3.5% vs. 5.3%. Maybe there was a slight last-minute swing towards them both times, but the general tendence seems clear.
The FDP in 2009 had 18.4% vs. 17.1%. In 2013: 8.9% vs. 6.9%, which is a much wider difference, particularly in relative terms.
AfD 2013: 3.7% vs. 5.0%.

So in Munich I would say:
1) Small last-minute swings away from Greens, FDP, towards CSU, AfD, maybe Linke.
2) Generally CSU, FDP and Greens tend to do better among mail-voters, SPD, Linke and AfD worse. This effect can be different in other areas, for example in rural regions or in the East.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #26 on: October 15, 2013, 02:49:09 pm »

In Frankfurt there has been in the past a general tendency for the Greens to underperform in postal votes in strong Green years, especially if they weren't strong SPD years as well, and to overperform in weak Green years that has nothing (or at least little) to do with late swings and everything to do with core Green voters being a somewhat postal-voting-affine group and more 'red-green' voters being more like 'pure' SPD voters in that respect (but more like core Green voters in many others, notably policies supported.) It's all about class, of course. Isn't everything? Smiley
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palandio
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« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2013, 03:32:03 pm »

@ Minion of Midas: Probably there are similar patterns in Munich. And yes, much is about class.
I'm posting now a map of turnout in Munich precincts. The precinct map is based on a 2009 map from Munich's statistical office. The coloring is my own. I hope I don't violate any copyright?


I would like to do either an SPD+Greens+Linke+MLPD map or an CSU+FDP map of Munich. Any preferences?
« Last Edit: October 15, 2013, 03:37:43 pm by palandio »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #28 on: October 15, 2013, 04:44:40 pm »

Greens withdrawing from CDU coalition talks.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2013, 01:58:32 am »

http://bundeswolfpack.tumblr.com/

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2013, 04:59:46 am »

2014 elections in Germany:

* EU Parliament (May)
* Brandenburg state election (summer/fall) - strong CDU gains likely
* Sachsen state election (summer/fall) - good chance of a CDU absolute majority
* Thüringen state election (summer/fall) - outside chance of a CDU absolute majority
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ERvND
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« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2013, 03:17:36 pm »

Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2013, 07:06:41 am »

Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)

Meh ... nobody really cares about those ... Wink
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #33 on: October 19, 2013, 07:30:23 am »

What's a local election in Hamburg? Have they decoupled city and borough elections or what? (checks) Seems to be the case.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2013, 08:10:02 am »

As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. Smiley So glad to see the FDP gone. Cheesy And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?
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"That's why... we seek the light."

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« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2013, 08:24:14 am »

I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.
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Franzl
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« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2013, 09:02:28 am »

As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. Smiley So glad to see the FDP gone. Cheesy And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?

Black-green is done with unless the talks for a grand coalition fail. A minimum wage does seem like a done deal and the model most seem to talk about would include a non-political commission that would periodically increase the rate to keep up with cost of living.

I've not heard anyone seriously discuss gay marriage yet.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #37 on: October 19, 2013, 09:07:34 am »

Full equality of gay civil unions with marriage is going to be achieved by the end of this parliament, no matter what government we get or even if black-yellow had been reelected. We're pretty far already.

Gay marriage is a nonstarter thanks to the way things have happened the way they have.
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Hifly
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« Reply #38 on: October 19, 2013, 09:39:43 am »

I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #39 on: October 19, 2013, 09:51:02 am »

German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).
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Hifly
hifly15
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« Reply #40 on: October 19, 2013, 10:02:58 am »

Well, it can.
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Franzl
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« Reply #41 on: October 19, 2013, 10:30:43 am »

I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.

I seriously doubt Merkel cares about gay marriage either way.

German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).

Yes, like the abolition of tuition fees in Hessen. (Although I guess there wasn't technically a new government in place.)
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DL
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« Reply #42 on: October 19, 2013, 04:11:32 pm »

I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.

It doesn't always work that...the SPD was junior partner in a grand coalition with the CDU 1966-69 and then took the chancellorship from 1969 to 1983!
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Franzl
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« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2013, 07:26:46 am »

INSA poll from yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 8.5%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 3.5%
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FredLindq
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« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2013, 04:15:46 pm »

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
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Franzl
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« Reply #45 on: October 24, 2013, 06:01:15 am »

The NSA scandal has struck again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24651975

Disgusting, but unsurprising.
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Franzl
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« Reply #46 on: October 24, 2013, 06:02:30 am »

New federal Allensbach poll:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5.5%
FDP: 5%
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #47 on: October 24, 2013, 06:06:55 am »

FDP at five? Srsly?
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Great Again No More
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« Reply #48 on: October 24, 2013, 06:11:26 am »

Two days before the election, Allensbach had the FDP at 5.5%.

In fact, the last time they had the FDP below 5% was last December.

They're apparently very persistent in ignoring reality.
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sirius3100
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« Reply #49 on: October 24, 2013, 09:13:35 am »

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
2. It isn't clear if there really will be a 3% treshold. In my opinion it is likely that the constitutional court will rule against that treshold.

I haven't read any news regarding your real question.
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