German Elections & Politics

[Franknburger]

Had to take a break from the Forum, for a number of reasons. I will probably in future not contribute as extensively as in 2013/ early 2014, but for a Hamburg election, I of course need to be here..

I'm guessing right-wing parties didn't win a single precinct this time? That would make up for the fact that both AfD and FDP got in.

Not quite right. I checked some of the usual suspects:

Precinct 21906 (Othmarschen) - a very posh part of the Elbchausse, the area just east of the Jenischpark, up to the Großflottbek golf course. As expenisve as Hamburg can get:
FDP      33.6 (+ 6.9)
SPD      30.0 (+3.7)
CDU     22.4 (-14.6)
Grüne    6.7 (- 0.5)
AFD       5.8
Linke     0.8 (-0.4)

Neighnouring precinct 21905 to the east, also covering the poshest part of the Elbchausse, but a bit closer to green-alternative Ottensen, was narrowly taken by the FDP (29.5%), with SPD at 28.5, CDU at 21.4 (-13.8 ), Grüne at 10.1, Linke at 4.3 and AFD at  2,8.
However, precinct 22202, just west of the Jenischpark, also very upscale, and including an upcale private home for elderly, went 39% SPD (FDP 23, CDU 20, Grüne 8, AFD 6, Linke 1.5). in 2011, the CDU still won the precinct with 38%, in the 2013 federal election they carried it with 55%. Candidates matter, and seniors appear to have flocked back to a Helmut Schmidt-type, gaffe-free, prgamatist and centrist social democrate, who doesn't talk about increasing taxes.
There are nevertheless a handful of other precincts further down the Elbe that the SPD only took very narrowly, e.g. 22308 (Blankenese - Falkensteiner Ufer), with SPD at 29.0 vs. FDP at 28.7 (CDU 17.8, Grüne 12.5, AFD 6.4).

Over to the Alster:

Precinct 41306 (Winterhude) - the norhtern end of the Alster lake, also extremely posh. A bit more inland, there is nice late 19th-century appartment housing, so voting is a bit more inner-city-ish than on the Elbchaussee:
CDU    30.2 (-5.0)
SPD     27.9 (-3.9)
FDP     26.2 (+2.1)
Grüne   5.5 (+1.6)
Linke    4.8 (+2.3)
AFD      3.1
In the federal election 2013, it was 55% CDU, 13% FDP, and - interestingly - 7% AFD. In Hamburg, foregners are not a threat, but the source of wealth (and the main mosque, established in the 1950s by Iranian carpet traders, is just a bit further down the east bank of the Alster).

Precinct 31202 (Rotherbaum) -  the southwestern end of the Alster lake, close to the University, and also to downtown. More penthouse style, few villas. Traditionally home to the Jewish community, which traditionally votes FDP. While the SPD was the strongest party, FDP & CDU together almost reached 50%.
SPD      32.7 (-4.4)
FDP      25.3 (+8.6)
CDU     23.7 (-7.8 )
Grüne    7.8 (+0.5)
AFD       5.4
Linke     3.3 (-0.4)

Precinct 31404 (Harvestehude) - a bit further north along the western bank of the Alster lake:
CDU     31.4 (-1.3)
FDP      27.1 (+6.0)
SPD      25.9 (-8.5)
Grüne     5.8 (-1.9)
AFD        4.3
Linke      3.9 (+2.1)

Precinct 31308 (Harvestehude) - adjacent to the north, also along the western bank of the Alster lake:
CDU     33.7 (+1.7)
FDP      26.4 (+4.9)
SPD      24.1 (-8.6)
AFD        7.0
Grüne     4.6 (-3.2)
Linke      2.8 (+0.1)

Don't know why in the last  two precincts the CDU held so well, and the SPD lost so heavily. Probably a local issue (bus fast-tracking obsessing car owners?).
  
But that, indeed, seems to be it. Even the posher part of the HafenCity (10301) voted 43.3% SPD (FDP 21.2, Grüne 12.8, CDU 12.7, Linke 5.1, AFD 3.6). And the SPD swept the marsh villages, traditional CDU strongholds (not htat there are may voters, but anyway..)

[Franknburger]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

F) People currently don't know what the CDU stands for.

G) The SPD outperforms the CDU in all their core competencies: economy and fight against crime

H) Allowing 16 and 17-years old to vote damaged the CDU, and to a lesser extent also the SPD, which both are strongest among seniors. It especially benefitted the Greens (18% among 16-17 years old) but also the FDP (8%), Pirates (4%), probably also Die PARTEI.


I) Lower turnout compared to the 2013 Federal election appears to have mostly hit the CDU. In spite of allowing 16/17 years old to vote, there were some 180.000 voters less than in the 2013 Federal election. The CDU lost more than 170.000 voters. Up to half of them may have switched sides, but a good part of the 2013 CDU electorate, a quarter of which was older than 70, appears to have abstained (to the extent they did not die in the meantime). In contrast, the SPD gained some 36.000 votes, and AFD 6.000 votes. The NPD lost almost 3.300 votes, I have a guess where many of them went this time.

K) While first analyses indicates that only a minority of voters, and especially younger voters, did split their votes on several parties, vote-splitting should have damaged the larger parties, and could have especially weakened the CDU in favour of FDP and AFD.

L) Add to this tactical voting during the 2013 federal election, where voters on one hand wanted to penalise the federal FDP, and on the other hand wanted to strengthen Merkel in an anticipated Grand coalition. The 2013 Federal election had the FDP underperforming in Hamburg by some 4 percent compared to their long-term federal and local results, and the CDU overperforming correspondingly. Many traditional FDP voters have come back, and the AFD is gradually eroding the CDU from the right (though that should only make up for a bit more than 1%).


All in all a perfect storm against the CDU - a strong opponent and a weak own candidate, competition from other centre-right parties including a resurging FDP, an election system in favour of smaller parties, and the party's traditional weakness with younger voters becoming exaggerated by lowering the voting age to 16 years.

The Hamburg statistical office has election maps by city district up:
http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html
No major surprises here. Best districts by party:

SPD: Waltershof-Finkenwerder 58% (south of the Elbe, location of the Airbus plant)
CDU: Reitbrook 31% (marsh village in the east)
Grüne: Sternschanze 27% (surprise, surprise..)
Linke: Kleiner Grasbrook/ Steinwerder 32% (port area, see my post above)
FDP: Nienstedten 23% (posh district on the Lower Elbe, see above)
AFD: Billbrook 13.3% (sh**tty industrial area, see above)

AFD ist strongest in the blue-collarish east (Billbrook/ Billstedt/ Moorfleet) and the eastern part of Harburg borough south of the Elbe. The latter may relate to the fact that AFD chairman Lucke comes from Winsen/Luhe, which is just 25 km southeast of Harburg.

[Franknburger]

Interesting also that the Left did best in the districts just south of the city-center with the highest migration background (which are also the poorest), and not the Greens or the SPD.

Go to "Themen" and select "Sozialstruktur":

https://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_HH_2015_WK_Struktur/atlas.html

Issues here are a bit different:
Moorburg/Altenwerder: Both used to be apple farming villages. In the 1970s, the area was designated by SPD/ FDP governments for port extension, which became a major issue for the emerging green-alternative protest movement in the 1980s. Altenwerder got completely cleared of inhabitants (including my in-laws and my wife) and has been turned into an industrial area, but Moorburg was preserved. Nevertheless, it attracted the kind of people who didn't mind they might be resettled over the next 10 years, as long as they could for the moment live cheaply in an area with countryside feel yet not too far from the city.

It was a green stronghold until the late 1990s. Then, the Green party, against there election promise, accepted a new coal-fired power plant there as price for entering the coalition with the CDU. Apparently, many locals haven't forgiven the Greens yet that breach of their promise.

That black-green coalition is still damaging the Greens in their traditional inner-city strongholds (St. Pauli, Sternschanze, Altona, Ottensen) though it helped them to gain ground in more up-scale suburbs along the Elbe and in the north-east.

Veddel: The high migration background isn't so decisive, as many don't have voting rights or abstain. It is first of all a symptom of demographic change. Most of Veddel contains late 1920s/ early 1930 housing blocks, where since construction inhabitants turned over twice. In 1987, more than 15% of inhabitants were over 65, by 2004 it was down to less than 7% (currently its 7.5%). The old inhabitants dying away facilitated both entrance of immigrants, and of young Germans. The place is quite central (two stops from the central railway station), the 1930s blocks have some flair, but with the railway to the east and the motorway to the west, it is polluted and noisy. Moreover, being an island within the port area, you hardly have nature or parks within walking distance. Hence, rents are rather cheap. Essentially, we are talking younger inner-city voters, just like in Sternschanze/ St. Pauli, in a place a bit more distant from the University and thus with a slightly lower share of students.


Kleiner Grasbrook:  Technically an extension to Veddel, but a bit more extreme. All shopping and social infrastructure is on the Veddel, howeever, you are a bit more distant from the motorway noise (though not the train noise)). Even more population tournover over the last decade -lowest share of seniors (4.7%), but also children (7%) in all of Hamburg, and voting accordingly. The same, by the way, also applies to the Reiherstieg area, the adjacent NE part of   
Wilhemsburg, which is just getting "hip", also due to the annual Dockville festival.


Here, there are three local issues:
1.) Ole van Beust's "Jump across the Elbe" strategy included upgrading of especially Wilhelmsburg, but also the Veddel, to link the HafenCity and its smaller (though more spectacular) pendant in the Harburg port area. The 2013 International Construction Exhibition in Wilhelmsburg, and relocation of the Hamburg Office for Urban Development to Wilhelmsburg (photo below) were key element of that strategy. The Greens, in charge of Urban Development during the black-green coalition, supported this. However, their intended "breakthrough for environmental housing concepts" turned out to be "appartment housing as usual" - quite a disappointment.
The "Jump across the Elbe" strategy has increased fear for, and resistance against gentrification of Wilhelmsburg and Veddel, while the Greens have lost much credibility in this respect. [For the strong exposition to traffic noise and industrial emissions, I personally think that the Veddel, to a lesser extent also many parts of Wilhelmsburg, will not suffer as much from gentrification as e.g. Sternschanze, but the concern is nevertheless present with many inhabitants.]


2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.
 
3.) The city-owned Hamburg Port Authority intends to turn the Dockville festival grounds into an warehousing area. Both Greens and Linke oppose this plan, and it seems to be under re-consideration now.
http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/musik/hamburger-musikfestival-dockville-vom-ende-bedroht-a-846563.html

A number of other "development plans" by the Hamburg Port Authority, e.g. turning down a 1930s warehouse on the Veddel, listed as architectural monument, could also be stopped at the last moment due to local public protest. Nevertheless, the HPA is doing their best to revive old feelings of the city government not giving a damn about people living in/ near the port zone. The SPD is anyway tainted in this respect since the Moorburg/ Altenwerder development, the CDU as well, and the FDP is traditionally more concerned with port noise from the south bank reaching
the posh north bank... Well, and the Greens still have to re-establish credibility after sacrificing their resistance in order to enter the coalition with the CDU a decade ago. That leaves many voters only with Linke, Pirates or DIE PARTEI.
-----

If you are looking for socio-economic details, these sources are better than the map in your link, as they go down to city district level:
Online mapping:http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/download/Stadtteil_Profile_2014/atlas.html
Database with time series:http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/regional/regional.php

[Franknburger]

In addition to my previous post, here the results from some precincts in the Reiherstieg area of Wilhelmsburg - the Dockville festival area, west (not east, as I wrote in my previous post) of Kleiner Grasbrook:

13704:
Linke     35.7 (+16) (this is probably their by far best precinct)
SPD       24.1 (- 7.7)
Grüne    20.4 (+1.8 )
Piraten    5.1 (- 7.2)
PARTEI    5.1 (- 1.1)
CDU        3.9 (- 4.1)
AFD        1.8
FDP        1.6 (+0.1)


13706:
Linke    29.1 (+ 7.0)
SPD      28.6 (- 7.0)
Grüne   19.4 (+ 6.2)
CDU       5.3 (- 4.5)
PARTEI   5.0 (-0.1)
Piraten   5.0  (-5.4)
AFD       3.8
FDP       2.5  (+1.0)

Not the nicest of all areas, but still affordable, urban, with your friendly Turkish grocery and Portuguese restaurant around the corner, and a developing club scene. Some 5km by bike to St. Pauli, through the port area and the old Elbe tunnel (pedestrians & bikes only). During the day, a port ferry takes you across the Elbe to St. Pauli in 15 minutes, if you want to visit the University in Hamburg-specific style. [When the Greens are clever, they will arrange for some night ferries on weekends in the up-coming coalition talks with the SPD].

[Franknburger]

2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.

What?!

Yes, you read correctly (more or less):
The port area was leased to Czechoslovakia for 99 years pursuant to Article 363 of the Treaty of Versailles. It is not Czech territory, but under Czech administration. After the Czech transport operator CSPL (Elbe shipping line) went bankrupt in 2002, it is hardly used anymore, and negotiation between Hamburg and the Czech Republic is on-going on terminating the lease before it officially expires in 2028 (I erred on that date in the cited post).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldauhafen


The map above shows the planned location of the Olympic Stadium, the Olympic Village and the press centre (area in green). Further housing for athletes shall be provided on cruise ships to be stationed on the Elbe. Zhe HafenCity lies to the north, Veddel just to the east, and the populated stretch of Kleiner Grasbrook is to the south, on the basin bank that stretches west from the city rail station marked by the white "S" in the green circle.
Hamburg's bid is quite popular in the city (except, of course, in Veddel, Grasbrook, Wilhelmsburg and the like), and is seen as one of the reasons for Scholz gaining re-election. The concept is in fact quite convincing, since it involves minimal investment (all public transport is already available, as well as many sports facilities, the Olympic village provides sought-after downtown housing, etc.). The neighbouring states shall be involved as well - sailing in Travemünde or Kiel, handball in Kiel and Flensburg, Beach Volleyball in Timmendorf, cross-country horse riding in Luhmühlen (as already in 1972), etv.  

The German Olympic Committee will decide in mid-March, whether they will support Hamburg or Berlin (which is also preparing a bid), and whether they will go for 2024 or for 2028. Since the IOC has a German president, Thomas Bach, the chances for Germany securing the 2024 or 2028 games aren't bad.    

EDIT: A concept outline (in German) can be found here:
http://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/4420632/data/anlagen-gesamtpaket.pdf
New construction shall include the Olympic Stadium (Athlethics), a Sports Hall (Basketball, Gymnastics), the Olympic swimming arena, a rugby stadium, a canoe slalom trail (Wilhelmsburg),  gun and bow shooting grounds, and a Beach Volleyball Arena (Entenwerder Island, Rotenburgsort, just off the right end of the map). Of these, the Olympic Stadium shall afterwards be converted into a smaller stadium for athletics and American Football, the Olympic Hall shall be rebuilt  into a cruise terminal. The swimming arena shall serve as public batn, the rugby stadium for amateur soccer.

Boxing, wrestling, weight-lifting, fighting etc. shall be done in the trade-fair halls (Sternschanze). Rowing and canoeing infrastructure is available in the marshlands, horesriding grounds in Groß Flottbek, golf on Gut Kaden north of Hamburg, tennis on the Hamburg Masters facilities (Rothenbaum) . Cycling infrastructure is also available but requiring upgrading.
Soccer shall be played in Bremen, Wolfsburg, Hannover, Braunschweig and Rostock, with the final in the Hamburg soccer stadium. Field hockey shall be played in the St. Pauli Stadium, Handball in Kiel and Flensburg, with the final in the O2 Arena in Hamburg, and Volleyball in Schwerin (final in one of the Hamburg trade fair halls).

EDIT 2: Some "before and after stuff" -viewed from the norh-west. Veddel is at the top left and centre of the pictures, the stretch of current Kleiner Grasbrook housing at the top right. Bottom left on the first picture you see the part of the HafenCity currently under construction.

[Franknburger]

Even though it is kind of  comparing apples and oranges, I found it instructive to do some comparison between the 2013 federal and the 2015 state elections in Hamburg. Note that they are based on ballot-box performance only, which, at over 30% vore-by-mail in each of the two elections, may here and there blur the picture.



Participation: 2015 participation was 14.4 absolute points (some 20% relatively) lower than in 2013. The decrease was not uniform across city districts, and also less characterised by socio-economic diffences than might be expected. Socially strong districts along the lower Elbe, the Alster, and in the north-east, expectedly, show the highest participation rates, and low absolute and relative decreases. However, in some lower and middle class suburbs, notably the SPD stronghold of Langenhorn in the NNW, participation was also comparatively high. The same applies to many marsh villages in the south-east, and also agriculturally-structured Francop in the south-west. These districts are among those where the SPD (but in some marsh villages also AFD!) gained strongest, and the CDU lost most, respectively. Apparently, in some locations Olaf Scholz managed to motivate his base to vote, or even turn out voters which abstained in 2013. As concerns the marsh villages, also southeastern Harburg district, this appears to apply even more to the AFD. Conversely, in the western part of the upper-middle-class Walddörfer in the NE, participation was somewhat lower than expectable, and the CDU lost over proportion.

SPD: In the western inner city, the SPD only improved slightly against 2013. The same applies to Wilhelmsburg and Harburg proper, traditional SPD strongholds. On the Veddel and the Kleine Grasbrook, they even lost, presumably due to the envisaged Olymics bid. Several of the blue-collarish areas, such as Horn and Billstedt to the east, and Steilshoop (their strongest 2013 district) gave the SPD moderate gains in the 10-15% range. Nothing to compain about, of course, but not decisve. In absolute terms, most of the SPD improvement stems from the suburbs - both the lower and upper-middle-class ones. And relatively to 2013, they gained especially in the upper middle-class districts along the lower Elbe and to the northeast. Thus, 2015 wasn't just preaching to the converted (though this clearly also played a role), it was first and foremost recuperating lost ground in the (upper) middle class.
The most spectacular SPD gain, however, ocuured in the western marsh villages - interestingly, not only at the expense of the CDU, but also of the Greens. This is where the Olympic rowing and canoeing competitions are envisaged to take place. Unlike on the Veddel and the Grasbrook, locals in the marsh villages seem to be quite ethuastic about potentially hosting parts of the Olympic Games.

CDU: I hope the maps don't look counter-intuitive. The six shades of grey they entail display what remained of the CDU's 2013 glory - the darker, the more. In fact, of course, the 2015 election was a disaster for the CDU. They didn't just go down in every district, they lost at least 5%, and a quarter of their 2013 share, in each district. There isn't a single district where the CDU isn't the biggest loser, both in absolute and in relative terms, of all the parties that were on the ballot.
In absolute terms, the CDU appears to have been able to best contain their losses in the (western) inner city. However, there wasn't much to lose there from the beginning. Thus, what at first glimpse looks like a very modest 5.2% loss on Kleiner Grasbrook, is, in relative terms, a 62% decline from 8.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2015. In Sternschanze, they even managed to go down by 75%, from 11.4% in 2013 to 2.9% in 2015. Thus, compared to the already meagre 2013 vote share, the CDU has literally almost been annihilated in the western inner city.
The CDU was also devastated in the posh suburbs on the Lower Elbe, where they not only lost massively to the SPD, but also to the SPD. In Nienstedten, e.g., where they reached 49.5% in 2013, they lost 29.5 percentage points (SPD up 17, FDP up 12. The picture is similar, though partly a bit less dramatic, in the upper-middle class Walddörfer in the northeast, and in the marsh villages.
However, posh suburbs and marsh villages tend to be rather sparsely populated - the size on the map overstates their demographic weight. What really killed the CDU was losing almost 20 points, or 55-60% of their 2013 share, in each of the more densely populated middle-class suburbs like Niendorf and Schnelsen to the NW, Rahlstedt to the ENE, and Bergedorf in the ESE. Here, the CDU loss corresponds with similar, though slightly lower SPD gains, while some 2-4% went to the FDP.