German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern (Bavaria) state election poll by Infratest dimap for BR:



Also:

Bavarians support the CSU-policy against "Social tourism into the German safety net by poor Romanians and Bulgarians" by 60-35.

Bavarians also support the use of mini-cameras on police helmets/uniforms:



http://www.br.de/fernsehen/bayerisches-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/bayerntrend-2014-kontrovers-100.html

[Tender Branson]

Interesting chart from last weeks Infratest dimap Germany poll:



Opinions about immigration from EU member countries

83-14 agree (immigrants from other EU countries who move to Germany, but with no intention to work, should get no financial benefits)

76-20 agree (the political parties are doing not enough about the problems that are caused by immigration)

70-26 agree (immigrants from other EU countries who move to Germany, but with no intention to work, should have to leave the country again)

68-31 agree (our economy needs qualified workers from other countries to remain successful)

46-49 disagree (I think that Germany has more advantages than disadvantages from immigrants)

34-65 disagree (I'm personally scared by the immigration of foreigners of other EU member countries)

[Tender Branson]

Last year it was the Greens, this year the SPD.

I think the SPD can bury their hopes of coming anywhere close to the CDU in the EP elections because of this.

Just look how the Green support collapsed after the allegations became known and then they only got 8.5% after polling 14-15%.

There are already signs that the SPD will take a hit in the polls too.

The good thing for them is that the elections are still a few months away.

[Tender Branson]

Breaking: Threshold for the Euros is unconstitutional.

Look, it's Lewis !

[Tender Branson]

I predict Reiter to win by 52-48 in the run-off, or so.

It's also possible that the CSU-man wins this.

...

Also, considering the Red-Green-Pinkie coalition was voted out, which coalition is now likely in Munich ?

[Tender Branson]

Dieter Reiter (SPD) is winning the Munich mayoral run-off today with almost 60-40 vs. the CSU-guy.

[Tender Branson]

Thought I could post this poll because it's funny:

Brandenburg state election (Sept. 14) - Infratest dimap poll for RBB

30% SPD [-3]
28% CDU [+8]
23% Left [-4]
  6% Greens [nc]
  6% AfD [+6]
  0% FDP [-7]
  7% Others

The FDP is not even listed among "others" anymore, it's explicitely shown at 0% ...

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htm

[Tender Branson]

Since nobody is posting here anymore, just a quick poll average (7 different polls released in the last week):

39.6% CDU/CSU (-1.9%)
24.7% SPD (-1.0%)
10.7% Greens (+2.3%)
  8.7% Left (+0.1%)
  6.3% AfD (+1.6%)
  3.7% FDP (-1.1%)
  6.3% Others (no change)

[Tender Branson]

New Saxony (August 31) state election poll (Infratest dimap for MDR)



Gov. Tillich (CDU) has the highest approval rating of all politicians (71-19):



The current government is CDU-FDP, but voters prefer CDU-SPD next time:

[Tender Branson]

New Thuringia (September 14) state election poll (INSA for the Thüringische Landeszeitung)

33% CDU
25% Left
18% SPD
  7% AfD
  6% Greens
  3% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% FW
  4% Others

The current government is CDU-SPD.

[Tender Branson]

New Thuringia (September 14) state election poll by Infratest dimap for MDR:



Direct vote for Governor:



Job approval ratings of frontrunners:



Preferred coalition after the election (Would this coalition be good or bad for Thüringen ?":

[Tender Branson]

No sow needs the FDP? As in female pig? I don't get it.

You cannot translate this literally into English. It's a German thing to say, like in "Nobody needs me ! I might as well go and jump off a bridge ..." with a dose of frustration.

[Tender Branson]

3 INSA state election polls for the BILD-tabloid:

Saxony state election (August 31)

40% CDU (nc)
19% Left (-2)
14% SPD (+4)
  6% AfD (+6)
  6% Greens (nc)
  5% FDP (-5)
  4% NPD (-2)
  6% Others

Brandenburg state election (September 14)

34% SPD (+1)
25% CDU (+5)
22% Left (-5)
  5% AfD (+5)
  5% Greens (-1)
  3% FDP (-4)
  6% Others

Thuringia state election (September 14)

34% CDU (+3)
26% Left (-1)
19% SPD (nc)
  6% Greens (nc)
  5% AfD (+5)
  4% FDP (-4)
  6% Others

[Tender Branson]

The Saxony state election is next Sunday and there are 2 new polls from Infratest dimap and FGW, both of which have the Nazis and the AFD gaining in the last weeks:

Infratest dimap

40.0% CDU
19.0% Left
14.0% SPD
  7.0% AfD
  6.5% Greens
  5.0% NPD
  3.5% FDP
  5.0% Others

FGW

39% CDU
20% Left
15% SPD
  7% AfD
  6% Greens
  5% NPD
  3% FDP
  5% Others

The most preferred coalition after the election is CDU-SPD (currently it's CDU-FDP):

[Tender Branson]

In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.

No CDU-AfD coalition:

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"I don't think that this is a coalition partner for us, which is able to do responsible government work for this state and its people." - Governor Tillich (CDU)

...

The most likely options are CDU-SPD or CDU-Greens (if they have enough seats).

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Saxony state election on Sunday:

40.4% CDU
19.2% Left
13.9% SPD
  7.6% AfD
  6.1% Greens
  4.8% NPD
  3.3% FDP
  1.2% Pirates
  1.1% TSP
  1.0% The Party
  0.8% FW
  0.6% Others

Turnout: 58.4%

[Tender Branson]

Merkel rules out any coalition with the AfD on the federal and state level:

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http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/vorwahlsplitter-landtagswahl-sachsen100.html#anchor1

Merkel says the AfD has a "backwards picture of society".

Which might be true.

Didn't the Saxony-AfD leader just recently call for a referendum on abortion ?

[Tender Branson]

Final Saxony state election poll out from FGW for ZDF:

[Tender Branson]

Linke and SPD are gonna be ranked the other way around, I guarantee it.

Why do you think the SPD can improve by 2% and the Left lose 2% compared with the last polls ?

German pre-election polls are generally close to the actual result.

[Tender Branson]

The polls in Saxony are now open. They will close at 6pm local time with first exit polls.

2009 state election result (Final 2014 polls):

40.2% CDU (39-42%)
20.6% Left (18-20%)
10.4% SPD (13-15%)
10.0% FDP (3-4%)
  6.4% Greens (5-7%)
  5.6% NPD (4-5%)
  2.1% Animal Protection Party
  1.9% Pirates
  2.8% Others

  0.0% AfD (6-7%)

Turnout: 52.2%

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[Tender Branson]

My final prediction for the Saxony state election today:

40.5% CDU
18.8% Left
14.8% SPD
  7.4% AfD
  5.5% Greens
  4.7% NPD
  3.0% FDP
  1.6% TSP
  1.2% FW
  1.2% Pirates
  0.8% The Party
  0.5% Others

Turnout: 58.4%

[Tender Branson]

I just took the Wahlomat's 38 questions for Saxony.

The parties that came out on top for me:

79.2% Pirates
76.0% Left
75.0% Animal Protection Party
72.9% SPD
69.8% The Party
64.6% Greens
63.5% FW
62.5% DSU
49.0% BüSo
47.9% Pro Deutschland
47.9% FDP
45.8% NPD
39.6% CDU
38.5% AfD

https://www10.wahl-o-mat.de/sachsen2014/main_app.php

[Tender Branson]

Damn, the first turnout report from 10am shows that only 5.7% of all eligible voters have voted so far, compared with 8.7% in 2009.

http://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_wbt.prc_beteiligung?p_bzid=LW14&p_ebene=SN&p_ort=14

2009 already saw the historically worst turnout in Saxony with just 52% turnout.

And today it seems it will be even lower (today is the last day of school holidays in the state).

I would have thought turnout might increase because of AfD motivating previous non-voters.

[Tender Branson]

The current "negative-record" for turnout in a German state election was set in 2006 in Saxony-Anhalt with just 44.4%

Saxony is on track to beat this today, if turnout does not pick up later in the day ...

[Tender Branson]

Yepp.

Hopefully, the SPD will finally stop this today and live up to their pre-election polling.

Otherwise, my prediction would be crappy ...