German Elections & Politics

[DL]

FWIW, even if the CDU remains the largest party and Merkel remains chancellor of a "grand coalition" - if the gap between the CDU and the SPD narrows vis-a-vis the 2013 election, i assume the SPD would get a larger proportion of seats at the cabinet table.

[DL]

Realistically the only way Schultz becomes chancellor is if the SPD inches ahead of the CDU in which case he would be the chancellor in another grand coalition and I assume Merkel would then quit politics on the spot rather than be demoted to just being a cabinet minister

[DL]

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern

[DL]

 Honestly, I think that most Germans would be Democrats in the US, even Merkel.

What do you mean "even Merkel"? The CDU has always been a very middle of the road party that is pretty much the same as that of a mainstream Democrat in the US. The last time I would have described the CDU as being at all synonymous with the GOP would have been in 1976 when Gerald Ford was the candidate or maybe possibly under Bush Sr. and Merkel is seen as being very much on the leftwing of her own party.

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

[DL]

It's been a long time since we have seen a poll from Allensbach. What are they waiting for?.

[DL]

If the polls continue to show such a close race between the CDU and SPD I wonder if could unleash a lot of strategic voting by supporters of the small parties. Everyone knows that the only possible government that can emerge is another grand coalition - and the only open question is who will be the chancellor. If the SPD beats the CDU by so much as one seat - Schulz becomes chancellor and ditto if the CDU wins by one seat...ergo we could get a lot of last minute shifting of Green and Linke voters to the SPD as a means of ensuring that Schulz replaces Merkel as chancellor. On the other side, you could get some FDP voters going CDU to make sure the CDU is the largest party... (AfD voters mostly hate Merkel so much that they don't give a damn whether the next chancellor is her or Schulz)

[DL]

What possible government could there be that is not a grand coalition - no one will work with AfD or Linke and it is outside the realm of possibility that CDU+FDP gets a majority or that SPD+Green gets a majority...maybe i am missing something but how can anything other than a grand coalition emerge - barring some cataclysm like an AfD majority

[DL]

I don't think the SPD would mind a grand coalition so much if they were the larger party and Schulz became chancellor...as for the other possibilities - right now its hard to imagine SPD+Green+Linke having a majority and its also hard to see SPD+FDP+Greens having a majority...and its also hard to see CDU+Green+FDP having a majority...I think Germany is headed for Austrian-style perpetual grand coalition

[DL]

Red-Red-Green with a small majority of 1 point in the new INSA poll:

and needless to say if the FDP fell under the 5% hurdle again, we would have quite a large RRG majority over CDU+AfD

[DL]

It's interesting that Schulz has led the SPD to take votes from all parties...he has even taken a few points from the AfD even though he is more pro-refugee and more pro-EU than Merkel is. How does that happen?

[DL]

schulz is stagnating/losing in the new emnid poll.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

and - big surprise - far-right AfD ideological leader björn höcke participated in a a neo-nazi demo in 2010.

The last three polls by Emnid have had the SPD at 32, then 33 and now 33...in other words no change whatsoever since surging ten points when Schulz took over...considering that 32/33 is the highest the SPD has been in the polls in over 10 years...i wouldn't call that "stagnating/losing" I'd call that plateauing at a very high level!

[DL]

Its true, but a month ago who would have predicted that the SPD would gain as much ground as they did as a result of Schulz. When it was first announced that he would be the candidate for chancellor - the conventional wisdom was the SPD might get a "bounce" of 3 or 4 points. Instead it ended up being more like an 8-10 point bounce and so far it seems to be holding.

If the final polls in September continue to show the CDU and SPD neck and neck to be the biggest party, it raises two questions for me:

1. At what point do voters for the smaller parties start to feel the need to vote "strategically" to choose the chancellor. Let's say i am a Green voter but the final poll says that the CDU and SPD are deadlocked at 33% each and the Greens are at 8%. Maybe I'd consider "lending" my vote to the SPD knowing that the the SPD beats the CDU by so much as a single seat - Schulz would have a claim on being chancellor in a new grand coalition...of course some FDP voters could vote strategically for the CDU to keep Merkel - which could in turn have the unintended consequence of causing the FDP to fall below the 5% hurdle again and get no seats!

2. What would happen if the SPD beat the CDU by a handful of seats? Some say the CDU would refuse to be a junior partner to the SPD, so then what government would emerge? Could you have an SPD minority government?

[DL]

Why is Saarland a separate state instead of being part of Rhineland-Palatinate? It's so tiny

[DL]

It seems that CDU did well on talks of a possible SPD-Linke coalition.  My question is why is that such a fear?  In 2012 SPD+Linke actually had a majority of seats yet SPD went with CDU.  Is that not enough for SPD to prove that it is not planning a SPD-Linke coalition ?

Possibly because the CDU premier is personally very popular so people didn't want to lose her?

[DL]

Yeah in the last election the CDU took 42% and the SPD 26% - so within the "grand coalition" it was a 62/38 split in favour of the CDU which would have meant a cabinet heavily weighted to CDU/CSU ministers. Let's say that Merkel pulls it off this September but the popular vote is something like CDU 34% and SPD 32%...that would mean a big increase in the number of SPD cabinet ministers around the table and a centre-left government that would have more "left" in it than the current one has. Right?

[DL]

A few recent polls have had the CDU up a point or two but the danger is that they seem to picking up votes from the FDP which is now flirting with falling below the 5% hurdle again. One thing that could yield a red-red-green majority very easily would be the FDP getting 4.8% of the vote and no seats again

[DL]

I've never liked pretzels...and know i especially don't like Pretzells!!

[DL]

Remember February, when Schulz was set to be the next chancellor?

I remember February when there was a possibility that Schultz would be the next chancellor. It was a possibility then (never more than a tossup) and it will still be a possibility when the formal campaign begins

[DL]

What sort of government would emerge in Lower Saxony if those are the results? I see four possibilities:

1. Grand coalition with the SPD leader as Premier
2. CDU forms a Jamaica coalition
3. SPD forms a traffic light coalition
4. SPD forms a red-red-green coalition

[DL]

What about a Grand Coalition with the SPD supplier the premier?

I suppose that mathematically you could get a "Jamaica coalition" but given how the election is seen as a such a big rebuke to the CDU/FDP and Greens in the wake of a likely Jamaica coalition federally, i wonder if that combo would be seen as a bit of a "coalition of losers" 

[DL]

So what government will be formed? If the FDP absolutely refuses to join and "traffic light" coalition and the Greens absolutely refuse to join a "Jamaica" coalition and no one wants a "grand coalition" - what happens?

[DL]

Any news on what government is to be formed in Lower Saxony?

[DL]

How come no one ever discusses a "Grand Coalition PLUS" arrangement of CDU and SPD and Greens? (not sure what the nickname for that would be)

[DL]

I have referred to a CDU-FDP black/yellow government as the "Bumblebee coalition" but that doesnt seem to have caught on with anyone else :-(

[DL]

The latest polls in Germany indicate that both the CDU and SPD are shedding even more support to the point where after a new election they might not even have enough seats between them for a grand coalition...what would happen then and what is the nickname for a CDU/SPD/Green coalition?