German Elections & Politics

[Zanas]

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?

That seems less plausible than CDU-Greens or CDU-SDP-FDP.

Yeah I don't think Ampelkoalitions (traffic-light) are a thing nowadays. They haven't been for quite a while, and it's just not really in the air.

[Zanas]

Apart from the CDU -> AfD transfer clearly going on, on which we should be cautious because I'm not sure it would actually materialize in an actual federal election, has anyone noticed the Grünen's upward trend these last few polls ? Any explanation ?

[Zanas]

Oh god the FDP are back... They're at 7, 7.5 and 8 in 3 recent polls. Also the AfD hits 15 federally and the SPD falls below 20 for the first time in 24 years... twice (19 and 19.5) !

Allensbach :

CDU/CSU 33,5 %
SPD 23 %
Grüne 11 %
AfD 10,5 %
Linke 9 %
FDP 8 %
Other 5 %

Forsa :
CDU/CSU 34 %
SPD 19 %
Grüne 14 %
AfD 11 %
Linke 9 %
FDP 7 %
Other 5 %

INSA :

[Zanas]

It doesn't look like it would make a huge difference tbh, the SPD isn't looking too hot in recent polls. In recent news, a Die Linke leader was caked by antififa activists over her suggestion that not all refugees are welcome.

AntiFIFA activists ?

[Zanas]

So Merkel is the last chancellor before an Afd-FDP-CDU or Linke-SPD-Green coalition?

Well who knows how the federal level will vote. Landtags- and Bundestagswahlen tend to differ quite a bit.

Marzahn-Hellersdorf 5, and to a lesser extent n°4, really stick out in the East. What is this neighborhood like ? Is it a new thing, or was it already a bourgeois cluster in the East before 1990 ?

[Zanas]

Wait ... what ?

TV-judge Alexander Hold is from the Free Voters ?

You learn something new every day ...

So what is a TV-judge actually ?

[Zanas]

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern

Exactly, it's all just differential turnout (well, differential poll-response anyway) and enthusiasm gap. Let's see how those votes actually turn ou in the polls in a few months though...

[Zanas]

Just ignore the guy.

Anyway, isn't that the first poll in ages where the AfD isn't a clear third without ex aequo ? The way it's going, we should soon se them overtaken by the Left, or, god forbid, by the FDP...

New Emnid weekly tracking federal numbers, biggest lead for CDU/CSU since February 4th

CDU/CSU - 35%  (+/-)
SPD - 31% (-2)
Left- 9% (+1)
AfD - 9% (+/-)
Greens - 7% (+/-)
FDP - 6% (+1)
Others - 3% (+/-)

[Zanas]

And that's it : AfD fourth behind die Linke. But I see they had already fallen from third in an Allensbach poll from late March, polling even fifth.

[Zanas]

It was that.

The way it's going, we should soon se them overtaken by the Left, or, god forbid, by the FDP...

Nothing more than a psychological threshold, of course, but still not good news for the future of the AfD's chances.

[Zanas]

I offer "Grüsskoalition". ^__^