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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655456 times)
DL
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« Reply #3075 on: November 12, 2017, 11:35:39 AM »

Any news on what government is to be formed in Lower Saxony?
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #3076 on: November 12, 2017, 01:09:01 PM »

Any news on what government is to be formed in Lower Saxony?

Summary:
The SPD is for a traffic-light coalition (SPD + Greens + FDP), but the FDP said no.
The CDU would prefer a Jamaica coalition (CDU + Greens + FDP), but the Greens rejected it.
Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3077 on: November 12, 2017, 01:22:32 PM »

Any news on what government is to be formed in Lower Saxony?

Summary:
The SPD is for a traffic-light coalition (SPD + Greens + FDP), but the FDP said no.
The CDU would prefer a Jamaica coalition (CDU + Greens + FDP), but the Greens rejected it.
Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.

Grand coalition is bad, especially when you have two major parties in a strong position. The FDP should gets its act together and enter a traffic-light coalition.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #3078 on: November 12, 2017, 03:53:11 PM »

I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

Especially considering that the UK and Canada show that FPTP doesn't mean a consolidation of the vote around two parties.

One thing does occur though, is it fair to say that Germany has less regional polarisation than other countries? looking at how the CDU dominate the constituency vote across the board.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #3079 on: November 12, 2017, 07:25:50 PM »

Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.

Where does it end? No-one will contemplate minority or pre-election voting blocs so German politics hangs in the balance that the social democrats are left propping up CDU governments forever more? F**k that.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #3080 on: November 12, 2017, 08:25:04 PM »

Minority governments don't work very well,

Do you have any empirical evidence for that? In what way do they not work very well exactly?

The examples of Sweden, Denmark, or even Spain - where minority governments are the norm and not the exception -  seem to refute that statment.



I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

To be fair, don't parties in Sweden and Denmark come with "pre packaged" alliances?

As for Spain, I wouldn't exactly call it stable as of now. Before 2015 you would have had a point, but not now.

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #3081 on: November 12, 2017, 08:29:42 PM »

Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.

Where does it end? No-one will contemplate minority or pre-election voting blocs so German politics hangs in the balance that the social democrats are left propping up CDU governments forever more? F**k that.

Yeah, I agree. On hindsight, I think that SPD and CDU both made a huge mistake in the 2013 election. There, either red-red-green or CDU-Greens should have been the government coalition.

Personally, I think the best option for Germany is probably a minority Merkel government. That could be propped up though ties with FDP and AfD on some issues, FDP-Greens on others and even SPD on certain occasions. However Germany (and many other countries) seem to be afraid of minority government.

Though IMO as long as passing a no-confidence vote is made quite hard (requiring an alternative candidate or a supermajority) it's not necesarily more unstable than a majority one. Worst case scenario, you get a snap election or a "do nothing parliament"

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DL
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« Reply #3082 on: November 13, 2017, 10:45:45 AM »

How come no one ever discusses a "Grand Coalition PLUS" arrangement of CDU and SPD and Greens? (not sure what the nickname for that would be)
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Hnv1
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« Reply #3083 on: November 13, 2017, 11:29:32 AM »

How come no one ever discusses a "Grand Coalition PLUS" arrangement of CDU and SPD and Greens? (not sure what the nickname for that would be)
Kenya?

CSU would be on their back heels against such move
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #3084 on: November 13, 2017, 12:11:57 PM »

Yeah, I agree. On hindsight, I think that SPD and CDU both made a huge mistake in the 2013 election. There, either red-red-green or CDU-Greens should have been the government coalition.

To be fair, the CDU shouldn't be blamed for the 2013 grand coalition. Merkel said that the CDU would have been ready for a black-green coalition already in 2013. The problem was that the Greens had quite a left-wing tax plan back then, and therefore, they thought they couldn't enter coalition talks with the CDU/CSU without having to drop too much of their platform. Also in 2013, The Greens, along with the SPD, ruled out a coalition with Die Linke, which I always thought was a stupid move (having a left-wing tax plan and ruling out a coalition with Die Linke at the same time). They didn't make the same mistakes again in this election.


How come no one ever discusses a "Grand Coalition PLUS" arrangement of CDU and SPD and Greens? (not sure what the nickname for that would be)

Why would the Greens do that in the current situation in Lower Saxony? A coalition makes sense only when each of the coalition parties can put some pressure on the other ones to get proposals through that are important to the respective party. The Greens don't have any leverage against the CDU and the SPD in coalition negotiations if the two latter parties have a majority of seats and can therefore govern without the Greens' support.


How come no one ever discusses a "Grand Coalition PLUS" arrangement of CDU and SPD and Greens? (not sure what the nickname for that would be)
Kenya?

CSU would be on their back heels against such move

Yes, it has been called Kenya coalition or even Afghanistan coalition in the media. German journalists have that flag fetish. Wink
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3085 on: November 13, 2017, 04:05:33 PM »

Minority governments don't work very well,

Do you have any empirical evidence for that? In what way do they not work very well exactly?

The examples of Sweden, Denmark, or even Spain - where minority governments are the norm and not the exception -  seem to refute that statment.



I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

Northrine Westphalia was governed by minority cabinet from 2010 to 2012 and it didn't work so well. Minority governments are not tested in Germany and probably won't function effectively, especially at the federal level. I think it would be irresponsible for such an important country like Germany.

Without Gerrymandering and a two round system of voting (perhaps jungle primary), the CDU wouldn't get a two thirds majority, because Left and Greens would largely vote for the SPD including some FDP supporters.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #3086 on: November 13, 2017, 04:43:04 PM »

Minority governments are not plain sailing precisely because you've failed to convince voters, or many potential coalition partners, you're the right government. I'd rather you worry about doing something to fix that than upturn a well-functioning multi-party democracy with meaningful differences so you can remove those choices and force the German public into binary lesser-evilism to win an artificial mandate rewarded with seat totals far beyond what your votes deserve. Those Green and Left voters were already going towards SPD in the event they could form a government.
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DL
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« Reply #3087 on: November 13, 2017, 05:18:58 PM »

I have referred to a CDU-FDP black/yellow government as the "Bumblebee coalition" but that doesnt seem to have caught on with anyone else :-(
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3088 on: November 14, 2017, 04:42:39 AM »
« Edited: November 14, 2017, 04:45:43 AM by Filuwaúrdjan »

Important not to confuse coalition formation at state and federal levels. The former in general is a lot easier; minority governments aren't unknown (not common of course and all attempts will be made to avoid them, but...), SPD/CDU (or Green/CDU for that matter) coalitions aren't as problematic, and there's more room for arrangements between the SPD and the Left.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3089 on: November 14, 2017, 04:50:39 AM »

Minority governments are a no-no at federal level for... er... historical reasons, rather than present-day practicalities. The way these things go that will eventually change, but it's the sort of thing that is impossible until it isn't.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #3090 on: November 16, 2017, 11:14:16 PM »

I'd support a massive SPD-FDP-Left-Green coalition if it was feasible.
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JA
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« Reply #3091 on: November 16, 2017, 11:26:17 PM »

I'd support a massive SPD-FDP-Left-Green coalition if it was feasible.

Yeah, that'll never happen.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #3092 on: November 18, 2017, 04:05:15 AM »

All parliamentary parties above 10% in new poll:

Germany, Civey poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% ↓
SPD-S&D: 20% ↓
AfD-EFDD: 14%
FDP-ALDE: 11%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/931500567867817984
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #3093 on: November 18, 2017, 06:23:01 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2017, 02:49:01 PM by Sozialliberal »

Jamaica coalition talks at federal level drag on
Actually, the first phase of the coalition talks, known as "exploratory talks", should have ended on Thursday. In the first phase, the parties talk with one another to find out if there is enough common ground for a coalition. In the second and final phase, they negotiate on concrete government measures that they plan to implement in the next four years. Kubicki, the number two in the FDP after Lindner, said that the exploratory talks will definitely end on 19th November at 6 p.m. However, the CSU chairman Seehofer contradicted him, saying this deadline can't be met because the parties still need to discuss many issues. The CDU is still mostly optimistic that an agreement between the negotiating parties can be reached, but the FDP, the Greens and the CSU are more sceptical. The SPD chairman Schulz said his party won't continue the grand coalition in any case, even if the Jamaica negotiations fail. No major politician has publicly considered a minority government until now. There has been some speculation about a new election, though nobody can tell if the results of a new election would make forming a government any easier.

Lower Saxony: SPD and CDU agree on coalition
In Lower Saxony, the SPD and the CDU informed the public on Thursday that they agreed on a grand coalition. The incumbent state premier Weil (SPD) will remain in office. He expressed his satisfaction with the coalition agreement, saying: "The coalition agreement shows the hand of the SPD in substantial parts."  and "A major change in policy will not happen. There won't be a setback in refugee or education policy." The coalition agreement was approved by a large majority of the delegates at an SPD state party conference on Saturday. The CDU state party will hold a conference on Monday, where the coalition agreement is expected to receive a large majority of the delegate vote, too. Bernd Althusmann, who was the CDU's top candidate in the election, will take office as economics minister.


I'd support a massive SPD-FDP-Left-Green coalition if it was feasible.

Yeah, that'll never happen.

Out of the parties represented in the Bundestag, the FDP is the most right-wing on economics and The Left is (surprise, surprise) the most left-wing. The FDP is for lower government spending, privatization, tax cuts for high earners, economic deregulation; while The Left is the exact opposite. So it's clearly not feasible.


I have referred to a CDU-FDP black/yellow government as the "Bumblebee coalition" but that doesnt seem to have caught on with anyone else :-(

A funny nickname I heard for the black-yellow coalition back in 2009 was "Tigerentenkoalition", named after a famous toy from a children's book:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janosch#Tigerente
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DavidB.
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« Reply #3094 on: November 19, 2017, 12:07:01 PM »

Any news? Wasn't the deadline, like, six minutes ago?
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #3095 on: November 19, 2017, 12:46:32 PM »

The 6 p.m. deadline could not be met. The parties are still negotiating. The talks might go on late into the night. The negotiators now hope to make a decision today, but no one is sure if that's possible. An option that has been mentioned is interrupting the negotiations so that each party can reflect on the previous talks and resuming the Jamaica talks in two weeks. Everything is open so far.
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Beezer
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« Reply #3096 on: November 19, 2017, 05:57:32 PM »

Breaking: apparently the Free Democrats have cancelled the talks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #3097 on: November 19, 2017, 06:18:20 PM »

Berlin (DPA) -- Talks to form the so-called "Jamaica" coalition government in Germany have failed, a spokesman for the Free Democrats (FDP) party says.

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Kamala
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« Reply #3098 on: November 19, 2017, 06:19:21 PM »

Wuh oh. New elections?
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jaichind
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« Reply #3099 on: November 19, 2017, 06:19:25 PM »

I wonder if they will try again in the near future but without Merkel as head of CDU.
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