Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 11, 2018, 01:30:38 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 124 125 126 127 128 [129] 130 131 132 133 134 ... 177 Print
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 436924 times)
Great Again No More
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,938


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3200 on: December 29, 2017, 07:44:42 am »

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)
Logged
Hnv1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,413


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3201 on: December 29, 2017, 09:26:50 am »

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)
That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?
Logged

Democracy is overrated
Great Again No More
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,938


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3202 on: December 29, 2017, 12:10:08 pm »

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)
That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

You mean when the next regular elections would be held? Still sometime around the September of 2021. The newly elected Bundestag was already constituted back in October and has worked ever since. The interim government which has been in existence since then has worked as sort of a hybrid between a de facto grand coalition and a de facto CDU/CSU minority government.
Logged
Hnv1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,413


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3203 on: December 29, 2017, 12:17:59 pm »

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)
That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

You mean when the next regular elections would be held? Still sometime around the September of 2021. The newly elected Bundestag was already constituted back in October and has worked ever since. The interim government which has been in existence since then has worked as sort of a hybrid between a de facto grand coalition and a de facto CDU/CSU minority government.
Why haven’t the SPD used their leverage to force Merkel out?
Logged

Democracy is overrated
Great Again No More
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,938


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3204 on: December 29, 2017, 07:35:41 pm »

Why haven’t the SPD used their leverage to force Merkel out?

"What's the point?" is probably what they're thinking. In any case, this is probably Merkel's final term as Chancellor, and the SPD is right now focusing on getting some of their platform planks through (healthcare reform is a big one) instead of telling the CDU who should be their Chancellor.
Logged
Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,805


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3205 on: December 30, 2017, 08:13:11 am »

46% of Germans want Merkel to step down immediately. Is she finally living on borrowed time?

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article172039303/WELT-Trend-46-Prozent-der-Deutschen-wollen-dass-Merkel-sofort-zuruecktritt.html
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3206 on: December 31, 2017, 08:04:20 am »

I'm almost a million percent sure Kurz will never be the "leading figure in the EU".

But he already has been, by implementing the closing of the Balkans route for migrants.

So, it's pretty likely that Kurz was put Merkel in the shadows during the 2nd half of 2018, especially if she's still preoccupied with forming a government then ...

Kurz is a workaholic, so he'll definitely be in the news a lot between July and December and yes, he's going to be a "leading figure in the EU".
Logged
Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,805


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3207 on: January 02, 2018, 08:25:54 am »

State poll for Bavaria:

Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3208 on: January 02, 2018, 08:30:43 am »

State poll for Bavaria:



Wow.  Just when one could not conceive of SPD going any lower.   
Question:  I was just compariing this poll to 2013 state election results and just realized that AfD did not run in 2013.  Any idea why ?  They got 4.2% in Bavaria a week later in the federal elections so it was worth a try.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,805


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3209 on: January 02, 2018, 08:47:53 am »

A quick Google search reveals that they were afraid a bad result in Bavaria could have had negative repercussions on the federal election a week later.
Logged

The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,731


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3210 on: January 02, 2018, 08:50:23 am »

State poll for Bavaria:



I wonder if the SPD could fall below the AfD.
Logged

Blessed to live in such a great state. We may be Democrats, Republicans, or neither, but more importantly, we are all Floridians.
¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,664
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3211 on: January 02, 2018, 11:25:29 am »

What would be the CSU's first choice for coalition partner? Free voters? FDP?
Logged

FWIW, CrabCake hates China. I think they said something like their dream was for robots to devastate China.

palandio
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 598


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3212 on: January 02, 2018, 11:37:21 am »

State poll for Bavaria:



Wow.  Just when one could not conceive of SPD going any lower.   
[...]
I wonder if the SPD could fall below the AfD.
The SPD result in the 2013 state election (20.6%) was relatively good by Bavarian SPD standards. The 15% attributed to the Bavarian SPD in recent polls is more or less the 15.3% from the federal elections, so while this is of course very bad for the Bavarian SPD, it is also not very surprising. In fact 20% would have been surprising. I think that for the Bavarian SPD very much depends on their candidate and campaign. If they nominate some generic state party apparatchik, then 15% or less would be the default result. I'm not an expert, but Nuremberg mayor Ulrich Maly sounds like someone who could perform significantly better than a generic SPD candidate, particularly in the big cities and in Franconia.

Currently I expect the Bavarian AfD to score in single-digit territory in september because both Söder and the Free Voters will compete heavily, but I could of course be wrong.

When it comes to possible CSU coalition partners, the first option that comes to my mind is the FDP, which was already in government from 2008 to 2013. But after that they fell under the threashold and might be weary to repeat that experience. Next option are of course the Free Voters, but governing with the CSU they might find it difficult not to seem a complete CSU clone, so who knows.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,731


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3213 on: January 02, 2018, 01:16:06 pm »

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Also, are FW willing to join CSU?
Logged

Blessed to live in such a great state. We may be Democrats, Republicans, or neither, but more importantly, we are all Floridians.
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,533
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3214 on: January 02, 2018, 02:01:34 pm »

Would a CSU-AfD coalition be viable considering that CSU is more conservative than CDU?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3215 on: January 03, 2018, 03:32:57 am »

This wasn't posted yet:

Quote
BERLIN — A right-wing German lawmaker was temporarily blocked by Twitter after she referred to “barbaric, Muslim, rapist hordes of men,” and prosecutors are now looking into whether her remark violated the country’s hate-speech laws.

The controversy is the latest to involve the far-right party Alternative for Germany, known by its German initials AfD. The party made big gains in national elections in September, placing third, entering Parliament for the first time and making life extremely difficult for the center-right Christian Democrats, who placed first but are still struggling to form a governing coalition.

In a tweet on Sunday, the lawmaker, Beatrix von Storch, questioned the decision by the police in the western city of Cologne to put out a message in Arabic, as part of a multilingual campaign to promote the theme of this year’s New Year’s Eve festivities: “Celebrate — with respect.” The message was also posted in English, French and Persian. The festivities in Cologne, in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, draw thousands every year.

“What the hell is wrong with this country? Why is the official page of police in NRW tweeting in Arabic,” Ms. von Storch wrote on Dec. 31. “Are they seeking to appease the barbaric, Muslim, rapist hordes of men?”

The next day, a new law requiring social media companies to swiftly remove comments flagged as hateful, or face fines of up to 50 million euros, or $57 million, came into effect.

Twitter immediately took down the post, and suspended Ms. von Storch’s account for 12 hours. Ms. von Storch then posted on her Facebook page an image of Twitter’s message informing her of its actions. In the caption, she wished her more than 83,500 followers a “Happy New Year in a free country in which everyone can call barbarians barbarians, even if they are Muslims!”

Facebook later removed that post, Ms. von Storch told her followers. She vowed not to be silenced by the new law, but to continue to “call out problems by name.” She went on to insist that the young men who had sexually harassed German women were “not Protestant Swedes, not Catholic Poles, not Orthodox Russians, not Jewish Israelis and not Buddhist Thais. The overwhelming majority of them are young Muslim men for whom women and followers of other faiths are second-class citizens.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/world/europe/germany-twitter-muslims-hordes.html

Pretty sad to see Germany going into full Kalwejt-mode and surpressing free speech ... Sad
Logged
Great Again No More
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,938


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3216 on: January 03, 2018, 04:09:43 am »

Would a CSU-AfD coalition be viable considering that CSU is more conservative than CDU?

No.

The CSU still follows Franz Josef Strauß' old mantra of "there shall not be a political party to the right of the Union", meaning their official goal is to make the AfD non-existent. And as we could witness at the recent AfD federal congress, if you happen to support entering coalitions with other parties you don't stand a chance at getting elected AfD chairman.

There's a more moderate faction within the AfD who's at least willing to enter coalitions with other parties provided that the AfD is the larger party in said coalition and the AfD can obtain the position of minister-president for themselves. But that isn't really an option in Bavaria.  Theoretically, this would only possible in some eastern states like Saxony-Anhalt or Saxony where the AfD is electorally stronger... provided the CDU would be willing to go along with it and support a AfD minister-president... which isn't the case really... so, no there won't be coalitions with the AfD on the state-level for the foreseeable future. ("Foreseeable future" probably means a five to ten year window, at the least.)
Logged
palandio
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 598


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3217 on: January 03, 2018, 11:39:15 am »

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?
Social-liberal? In what sense? Some of their policies could be considered vaguely social-liberal (anti-surveillance, free tuition, environmental protection), but for the most part their policies are centrist, conservative, populist or localist. Ideologically not too far from the CSU, but of course not the CSU.
Quote
Also, are FW willing to join CSU?
Good question. They might, but the risk is that they end up as a complete CSU clone.
Logged
EPG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3218 on: January 03, 2018, 03:55:44 pm »

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Also, are FW willing to join CSU?

Ten years ago, I knew some people connected to FW. A real mix of opinions, united by being against all other parties, but definitely closer to the German centre-right than the centre-left. It really depends on the local area and the local candidate. Nowadays, you may imagine that some of their voters may be supporting AfD instead.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,731


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3219 on: January 03, 2018, 07:00:52 pm »

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?
Social-liberal? In what sense?

I meant in the more UK, left-of-center sense, but you and EPG answered my questions. Thanks, guys Smiley
Logged

Blessed to live in such a great state. We may be Democrats, Republicans, or neither, but more importantly, we are all Floridians.
EPG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3220 on: January 03, 2018, 09:21:29 pm »

Hm... The two societies are hard to compare. The equivalent to a liberal Labour MP may be found in either the SPD or the Greens, probably not the FDP, and probably not Bayern FW, I feel. Of course, this is relative because the centre grounds of political opinion are quite different. I'd add that in Bavaria, there is an apparent local-religious element that may affect party preference, and also that traditional social-liberal issues are less important in both Germany and the UK than domestic and European economic policies and immigration.
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,663
United Kingdom


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3221 on: January 09, 2018, 08:00:22 am »

Hm... The two societies are hard to compare. The equivalent to a liberal Labour MP may be found in either the SPD or the Greens, probably not the FDP, and probably not Bayern FW, I feel. Of course, this is relative because the centre grounds of political opinion are quite different. I'd add that in Bavaria, there is an apparent local-religious element that may affect party preference, and also that traditional social-liberal issues are less important in both Germany and the UK than domestic and European economic policies and immigration.

I assume he's referring to the UK Liberal Democrats rather than liberal MPs within Labour? Although I'd have to wonder why he chose the UK Lib Dems as a representatives for left-leaning liberals when the market-liberals (Orange Book) have dominated their recent history (leading to their collapse), with Charles Kennedy-types (RIP) thoroughly marginalised.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 08:01:59 am by Leftbehind »Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3222 on: January 11, 2018, 03:20:20 am »

New Bayern state election poll:



Voters also prefer a CSU-Green government right now:

Logged
Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,805


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3223 on: January 11, 2018, 02:31:40 pm »

Just a friendly reminder that this is what happened after the last two grand coalitions. How any social democrat can be stupid enough to support a third installment is beyond me.



Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,533
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3224 on: January 11, 2018, 06:00:22 pm »

Maybe Schulz is a CDU plant to kill the party for good or something? Tongue

But I agree, if there's another grand coalition: RIP SPD. I wouldn't be surprised if it came in 3rd, 4th, 5th, or even 6th! (Though I don't think they will drop out of the Bundestag)

And SPD is lucky that the German further left isn't unifed. Hypothetically Linke+Greens would have 18.1%, not too far from SPD.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 124 125 126 127 128 [129] 130 131 132 133 134 ... 177 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines