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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 348752 times)
Leftbehind
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« Reply #3225 on: January 09, 2018, 08:00:22 am »
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Hm... The two societies are hard to compare. The equivalent to a liberal Labour MP may be found in either the SPD or the Greens, probably not the FDP, and probably not Bayern FW, I feel. Of course, this is relative because the centre grounds of political opinion are quite different. I'd add that in Bavaria, there is an apparent local-religious element that may affect party preference, and also that traditional social-liberal issues are less important in both Germany and the UK than domestic and European economic policies and immigration.

I assume he's referring to the UK Liberal Democrats rather than liberal MPs within Labour? Although I'd have to wonder why he chose the UK Lib Dems as a representatives for left-leaning liberals when the market-liberals (Orange Book) have dominated their recent history (leading to their collapse), with Charles Kennedy-types (RIP) thoroughly marginalised.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3226 on: January 11, 2018, 03:20:20 am »
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New Bayern state election poll:



Voters also prefer a CSU-Green government right now:

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« Reply #3227 on: January 11, 2018, 02:31:40 pm »
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Just a friendly reminder that this is what happened after the last two grand coalitions. How any social democrat can be stupid enough to support a third installment is beyond me.



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« Reply #3228 on: January 11, 2018, 06:00:22 pm »
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Maybe Schulz is a CDU plant to kill the party for good or something? Tongue

But I agree, if there's another grand coalition: RIP SPD. I wouldn't be surprised if it came in 3rd, 4th, 5th, or even 6th! (Though I don't think they will drop out of the Bundestag)

And SPD is lucky that the German further left isn't unifed. Hypothetically Linke+Greens would have 18.1%, not too far from SPD.
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« Reply #3229 on: January 11, 2018, 06:17:10 pm »
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Not that SPD had much option, given that the FDP proved that they are incapable of acting like adults.
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« Reply #3230 on: January 11, 2018, 06:28:15 pm »
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Not that SPD had much option, given that the FDP proved that they are incapable of acting like adults.

Nah they had another option - refuse coalition and force a new election where the FDP (among others) would end up getting punished. Hell the talks still could fail, or they could simply be a front designed to fail for Merkel to have the legitimacy to call a new election or bring the FDP back to the table.
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« Reply #3231 on: January 11, 2018, 07:01:38 pm »
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Not that SPD had much option, given that the FDP proved that they are incapable of acting like adults.

This strategy could (and hopefully will, imo) work out for the FDP considering that they felt like they could not govern as they believed the voters wanted them to.  If the Grand Coalition happens, both the CDU/CSU and the SPD will most likely lose seats in the next election, and the FDP can say that they stood opposed to the government.
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« Reply #3232 on: January 11, 2018, 07:40:16 pm »
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If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.
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« Reply #3233 on: January 11, 2018, 07:48:47 pm »
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If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

What is this exotic thing called a minority government? Does it have 50% + 1?  Does it last the entire term? Is it stable? Is it even German?

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« Reply #3234 on: January 11, 2018, 08:48:57 pm »
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If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

What is this exotic thing called a minority government? Does it have 50% + 1?  Does it last the entire term? Is it stable? Is it even German?

/s

Minority government is simply a government that has less than 50% of the seats so it can be a single party with less than 50% of the seats or a coalition that has under 50% of the seats.
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« Reply #3235 on: January 11, 2018, 08:55:23 pm »
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If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

What is this exotic thing called a minority government? Does it have 50% + 1?  Does it last the entire term? Is it stable? Is it even German?

/s

Minority government is simply a government that has less than 50% of the seats so it can be a single party with less than 50% of the seats or a coalition that has under 50% of the seats.

I was poking fun at the fact that Germany has never had a minority government, never has appeared to significantly consider the idea of a minority government, and currently never will consider it. It's just not part of the German political psyche. It is more likely we get new elections than Merkel break years of political tradition and consider an unstable minority government.
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« Reply #3236 on: January 12, 2018, 08:21:52 am »
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This whole talk about "minority governments" is of course ridiculous to begin with once you take the partisan majorities in the Bundesrat into account. Right now the Grand Coalition controls just 22 of the chamber's 69 seats. So in that sense (considering that around 40% of all bills require the approval of the Bundesrat) we will get something akin to a minority government. As a matter of fact since 1990, I think there has only been a 3 year period in which a government has actually controlled a majority of seats in the Bundesrat as well.
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« Reply #3237 on: January 12, 2018, 08:41:00 am »
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The cuckery of Martin Schulz and the SPD gets increasingly annoying. To summarize the SPD's behavior in the past month and a half:


- No grand coalition, there must early elections!

- Okay, maybe we should at least talk with CDU/CSU and see what happens. Doesn't necessarily mean we're doing another grand coalition, maybe we'll just support a CDU/CSU minority government.

- Okay, maybe we'll do another grand coalition, but it will only be a "cooperating coalition" where we technically have a coalition, but agree only on a few projects beforehand and let alternating majorities in the Bundestag decide most of the time.

- Okay, maybe we'll do a actual grand coalition, but only if there's a comprehensive healthcare reform and higher taxation of the super-wealthy.

- Okay, we have to concede that there won't be a healthcare reform and higher taxation of the super-wealthy, but we will do another grand coalition anyway.
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« Reply #3238 on: January 14, 2018, 04:55:40 am »
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So the SPD state branch of Saxony-Anhalt has voted against the Grand Coalition. Shouldn't be that much of an obstacle as they only send a small number of delegates to the upcoming party convention. Still, all is not well in Schulzlandia.
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« Reply #3239 on: January 14, 2018, 07:09:30 am »
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Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Mller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.
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« Reply #3240 on: January 14, 2018, 08:32:25 am »
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A rejection of the GroKo would kill the careers of both Schulz and Merkel right?
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« Reply #3241 on: January 14, 2018, 10:06:00 am »
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A rejection of the GroKo would kill the careers of both Schulz and Merkel right?

Schulz would probably resign the same day the SPD votes against entering the grand coalition. Merkel I don't know... her position is seen as weakened. Whether this would be the straw which breaks the camel's back remains to be seen. Maybe she runs one last time as Chancellor-candidate in a snap election, maybe she doesn't.
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« Reply #3242 on: January 14, 2018, 11:22:52 am »
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Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Mller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

I disagree completly - I am 100% certain, that the members will vote for the "grand" coalition.
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« Reply #3243 on: January 14, 2018, 11:32:43 am »
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Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Mller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

I disagree completly - I am 100% certain, that the members will vote for the "grand" coalition.

What's the composition of the membership like? A lot of young SPD friends on Facebook I have have set their profile pics to the "GegenGroKo" - how relevant will they be? Or is their younger cohort considerably to the left of the party as a whole
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« Reply #3244 on: January 14, 2018, 12:44:44 pm »
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Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Mller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

I disagree completly - I am 100% certain, that the members will vote for the "grand" coalition.

What's the composition of the membership like? A lot of young SPD friends on Facebook I have have set their profile pics to the "GegenGroKo" - how relevant will they be? Or is their younger cohort considerably to the left of the party as a whole

The average is 61 or 62 And I think the older members are still traumatized by 16 years opposition during Helmut Kohl.

And four years ago most of the young members were against the grand coalition too and a very large majority voted for the coalition nevertheless.
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« Reply #3245 on: January 14, 2018, 03:59:35 pm »
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Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Mller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

I disagree completly - I am 100% certain, that the members will vote for the "grand" coalition.

What's the composition of the membership like? A lot of young SPD friends on Facebook I have have set their profile pics to the "GegenGroKo" - how relevant will they be? Or is their younger cohort considerably to the left of the party as a whole

The average is 61 or 62 And I think the older members are still traumatized by 16 years opposition during Helmut Kohl.

And four years ago most of the young members were against the grand coalition too and a very large majority voted for the coalition nevertheless.

The difference now is that the party has just experienced it's lowest vote share ever. There is a reasonable chance that the SPD will join the ranks of the Greens, FDP, and AfD as secondary but not minor parties. Even if this fate doesn't come to pass, they will 100% miss the chance to take advantage of the expected Merkel retirement next election.

Those is the facts. It's well known, and it is why the opposition to a new coalition is coming from more than just the youth. It is also why I personally think it will fail, but thats just my opinion.
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« Reply #3246 on: January 15, 2018, 05:09:48 pm »
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Berlin SPD also votes against the GroKo. Is it happening?



Polls like these also don't bode well for the chances of a grand coalition:

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« Reply #3247 on: January 15, 2018, 05:45:39 pm »
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If the top four parties include AfD and Like...

Do you think FDP will recover greatly from a new Grand Coalition?
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« Reply #3248 on: January 15, 2018, 06:00:59 pm »
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Is the FDP's decline in the polls rooted in their rejection of the Jamaican Coalition? Regardless, seeing DL ahead of that garbage can of a political party is quite heartening.
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« Reply #3249 on: January 15, 2018, 06:22:53 pm »
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If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?
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