German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

Besides, INSA wasn't bad before the 2017 election. Even slightly better than FGW or dimap.

That's because INSA started to re-align their own polling numbers with those of the other polling institutes a few of weeks prior to the election...

We're far from a election right now which means they're in standard troll mode at the moment.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We're far from a election right now which means they're in standard troll mode at the moment.

Cognitive dissonance at work.

There's no argument rebutting my point in your post though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two examples to illustrate what I'm getting at with INSA:




Number of polls conducted in 2017 which showed the SPD overtaking the CDU/CSU, per institute:

Allensbach: 0

Emnid: 1 (Feb. 18)

Forsa: 0

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 0

GMS: 0

Infratest dimap: 1 (Feb. 23)

INSA: 6 (Feb. 6, Feb. 13, Feb. 28, March 7, March 20, Apr. 4)

Ipsos: 0




Number of polls conducted in 2017 which showed the Greens under 7% (actual election result: 8.9%), per institute:

Allensbach: 0

Emnid: 1 (Apr. 22)

Forsa: 1 (Apr. 19)

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 0

GMS: 0

Infratest dimap: 0

INSA: 25 (Feb. 21, Feb. 28, March 7, March 13, March 20, March 27, Apr. 3, Apr. 10, Apr. 19, Apr. 25, May 2, May 16, May 22, May 29, June 12, June 20, June 27, July 3, July 10, July 18, July 25, Aug. 7, Aug. 29, Sept. 4, Sept. 11)

Ipsos: 0



INSA has certainly a habit of producing specific outliers... outliers which happen to fit and support the narrative of BILD, for whom INSA is conducting these polls.

One of these sensationalist narratives was "Schulz has a real shot at getting elected Chancellor, Merkel's time in office could be over". Another narrative was "the Greens are threatened to fall below the 5% threshold".

The new narrative is obvious when you go the BILD's website right now. The headline reads at the moment: "New poll: SPD in free fall / Nahles could become SPD chief tomorrow, will it be only a short intermezzo?"

Another thing is of course that you can only access the specific poll numbers on the BILD website  if you're willing to pay for it.

I'm willing to bet real money that the first (and perhaps only) poll to show the SPD being overtaken by the AfD will be released by INSA.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But it is just not true that INSA was re-aligning with the others.

They sort of did (while retaining a mild house effect), but it was months before the election rather than weeks. The extent of herding from older firms does complicate things slightly o/c - the polling industry is in a mess world over.

Well, it was only two weeks in case of the Greens. They jumped from 6% to 7% and then to 8% in that timespan prior to election day. Their final poll from September 22 which showed the Greens at 8% (finally in line with other pollsters again) was the first INSA poll which had Greens at over 7% since late January of the same year.

You're correct about the other parties, of course. Crafty bastards.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

Did you seriously believe that the SPD is not in trouble right now ?

One doesn't need a pollster for that ...

The SPD being in trouble, the SPD being so much in trouble that they're at 16%, and INSA being a sh**tty clickbait pollster are three entirely separate issues.

I never said that the SPD isn't in trouble. They obviously are. Polling-wise, they were already in trouble than Infratest had them at 18% two weeks ago.

I was merely pointing out that INSA is not the most reliable of pollsters (except when we're one week away from election day, which we currently aren't) and that I'd like to have a second opinion before I consider it to be credible. Preferably from someone like Infratest or FGW.... No, I'm not willing to believe that the SPD is at 16% based on a single INSA poll alone. If another pollster backs it up, fine by me. This has something to do with wanting reliable empirical data.

As Oryxslayer just pointed out, INSA's CDU/CSU numbers look a bit odd compared to other pollsters. And as Al had already pointed out, the general trend of INSA's SPD numbers look a bit fishy. Except for their January 8 poll,  where INSA's SPD numbers remained stagnant, they have continously dropped in a very poll since December 19. Statistically speaking, that's simply improbable considering the high number of polls INSA has conducted and released.

Let's take a look of the development of the SPD's numbers according to other pollsters with a similarly frequent output since mid-December...


INSA

12/12: 22%
12/19: 21% (-1)
12/23: 20.5% (-0.5)
1/2: 19.5% (-1)
1/8: 19.5% (+/-0)
1/15: 18.5% (-1)
1/23: 18% (-0.5)
1/29: 17.5% (-0.5)
2/5: 17% (-0.5)
2/12: 16.5% (-0.5)


Emnid

12/16: 22%
12/23: 21% (-1)
1/6: 20% (-1)
1/13: 21% (+1)
1/20: 21% (+/-0)
1/27: 20% (-1)
2/3: 20% (+/-0)
2/10: 20% (+/-0)


Forsa

12/10: 20%
12/16: 20% (+/-0)
12/27: 19% (-1)
1/7: 20% (+1)
1/15: 20% (+/-0)
1/18: 18% (-2)
1/21: 18% (+/-0)
1/22: 17% (-1)
1/29: 18% (+1)
2/5: 18% (+/-0)
2/9: 18% (+/-0)
2/11: 17% (-1)


It even shows up with Infratest, even though they don't release polls as frequent as the others:

12/7: 21%
12/14: 20% (-1)
1/4: 21% (+1)
1/25: 19% (-2)
2/1: 18% (-1)
2/15: 16% (-2)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel appoints Kramp-Karrenbauer as CDU Secretary General

This, combined with Spahn's probably absence from the next Merkel cabinet, surely puts her in pole position to succeed Merkel?

The rumour that Merkel wants to groom Kramp-Karrenbacher as her successor has been floating around for a few months now. Originally, it was expected that she gets in fact a cabinet position for that very reason. I've wondered myself why her name hadn't popped in the leaked cabinet lists tbh. But her impending appointment as secretary general clears that up, I guess. Spahn is conspicuously exempted from any promotions though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If you don't mind me to do a little more INSA bashing.... the main headline on bild.de reads right now (in huge font):

"AfD OVERTAKES SPD!"

Naturally, you have to pay to access that specific article though.

Yes Tender, I know that the SPD in bad shape... that doesn't stop BILD/INSA to milk it dry in every way possible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that changes of half a point are nothing worth reporting, it should be noted that they're hardly the only ones "telegraphing" the SPD's demise...

INSA is the only polling institute which exclusively reports dropping numbers for the SPD in every poll they published since mid-December. Most of the other insitutes at least had one or the two polls in this period where the SPD slightly improved... which is more plausible, statistically speaking.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

I understand that you've apparently degenerated into some kind of troll now who's not interested any longer in any meaningful debate. Therefore it's probably a waste of my life-time to write these sentences.

However, the criticism I've (and probably Al as well, but he should speak for himself if he wants to) brought forward against INSA doesn't apply to these Infratest and FGW polls. The most recent Infratest poll which showed a small gain for the SPD - while remaining at a very low overall level - does in fact underline my argument that the INSA numbers are statistically implausible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's going to be interesting what coalition will came around in the fall. I think either with the FDP and/or Free Voters or the SPD. The Greens not so much.

Would I be correct in assuming that the AfD not being an option has more to do with them wanting to placate the CDU than any ideological differences?

Well, if we take the set of 38 issues covered by the 2017 Wahl-o-mat test as a standard, then the platforms of the CDU/CSU and the AfD were in complete agreement in 16 out of these 38 issues.


Comparison of other parties with CDU/CSU:

- CDU/CSU and SPD: 21 out of 38

- CDU/CSU and FDP: 20 out of 38

- CDU/CSU and Greens: 16 out of 38

- CDU/CSU and Left: 9 out of 38

- Bonus: Greens and AfD: 10 out of 38

- Bonus: FDP and AfD: 23 out of 38


One could of course say if coalitions between CDU and Greens are possible, then coalitions between CDU and AfD ought also be possible.


Source: https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bundestagswahl2017/Positionsvergleich_Bundestagswahl2017

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, many voters left to the Linke, but why would those who voted for the Agenda-SPD in 2005 abandon them in 2018, after 13 years of almost unprecedented economic success, mainly thanks to the Agenda? (btw, the SPD hasn't lost a meaningful number of voters to the anti-Agenda Linke party in any of the recent elections)
If the SPD made any mistake regarding the Agenda, it's that they are ashamed of it. Compared to 2005, almost 7 million more people have a job today. These are Agenda-jobs and they could be SPD-jobs and SPD voters. But they aren't and that's the problem. The SPD is trying everything to distance themselves from their major accomplishment in 16 years of federal government.

The mere number of jobs is not in itself a measure of success, but also the quality of these jobs, how much you earn in them and whether how much you earn in them is suffice to live well above the poverty line.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For the past couple of years I've been playing soccer once a week in the middle of Berlin-Neukölln near Sonnenallee with some friends of mine. The same ground is also often frequented by Turkish/Arab adolescents and sometimes we are playing with or against them.

So far I haven't asked any of them whether they have a criminal record or are member of a gang. It also wouldn't be polite to do so, I suppose. In any case, I have never become the victim of a crime myself down there or something. Sometimes I was getting the vibe though that they have a bit of a neurotic attitude towards ethnic Germans in the sense that they're suspecting us of being xenophobically biased against them, but without outright stating that suspicion.

Playing soccer against them is usually a pretty strenuous, since they definitely tend to play more aggressive, but without being ourtight unsportsmanlike or using foul play. Otherwise the behavior is generally very polite, accomodating, and hospitable. Can't ascertain whether they're that polite due to their upbringing or because they secretly suspect us of being xenophobes and must treat us carefully.

Currently, one regular member of our soccer group is a woman. In general, that doesn't seem to be a problem when playing against Arab youths. Only once it was cause of a bit of a friction. One of them was placing a lot of emphasis on not being touched by her or not touching her, since he didn't want to do commit any indecent or sinful acts or something. I guess he's got to find a way to live with it. Kind of ironic that the woman in question happens to be one quarter Iranian herself though.

I have also two friends living near Kottbusser Tor in Kreuzberg. When I tell my parents (who are from Saxony-Anhalt, which definitely explains their reaction) that I was visiting one of them there they're usually reacting very concerned for my well-being basing their opinion on something they saw on TV. Usually, that cracks me up. One of my friends who has been living in the direct vicinity of Kottbusser Tor for almost ten years says that he's never really become the victim of a crime there. And he happens to leave his house at night often. Only once he suspected that someone must have unsuccessfully attempted to steal his purse though.

I'm also aware of a bar somewhere around there which has the reputation that you can basically buy any drug you're looking for there. I think I have been there myself once. Haven't bought any drugs myself, but neither have I told my parents of it. In the immediate neighbourhood is also the SO36, maybe best known as the club frequented by David Bowie and Iggy Pop back in the 70s. The last time I was there was a couple of weeks ago when they conducted their weekly movie quiz. We placed 17th among the 42 participating teams.

More recently, it was in the local news that the Berlin state government has successfully  impounded real state worth a couple of a million euros from Neukölln clans. It was also recently discussed by the state government and the Kreuzberg borough administration to possibly remove the children of Arab mob members from their custody. That is the SPD-Left-Green government not a AfD one.

The bottomline is... is there crime, is there poverty, are there social problems? Of course there are. But maybe one should try to keep in mind that this isn't the only thing in existence and maybe not even the predominant thing in existence. It's only one of multiple aspects. But when you're happen to live in Saxony-Anhalt like my parents do crime in Kreuzberg apparently becomes the only aspect which exists.