German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two examples to illustrate what I'm getting at with INSA:




Number of polls conducted in 2017 which showed the SPD overtaking the CDU/CSU, per institute:

Allensbach: 0

Emnid: 1 (Feb. 18)

Forsa: 0

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 0

GMS: 0

Infratest dimap: 1 (Feb. 23)

INSA: 6 (Feb. 6, Feb. 13, Feb. 28, March 7, March 20, Apr. 4)

Ipsos: 0




Number of polls conducted in 2017 which showed the Greens under 7% (actual election result: 8.9%), per institute:

Allensbach: 0

Emnid: 1 (Apr. 22)

Forsa: 1 (Apr. 19)

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: 0

GMS: 0

Infratest dimap: 0

INSA: 25 (Feb. 21, Feb. 28, March 7, March 13, March 20, March 27, Apr. 3, Apr. 10, Apr. 19, Apr. 25, May 2, May 16, May 22, May 29, June 12, June 20, June 27, July 3, July 10, July 18, July 25, Aug. 7, Aug. 29, Sept. 4, Sept. 11)

Ipsos: 0



INSA has certainly a habit of producing specific outliers... outliers which happen to fit and support the narrative of BILD, for whom INSA is conducting these polls.

One of these sensationalist narratives was "Schulz has a real shot at getting elected Chancellor, Merkel's time in office could be over". Another narrative was "the Greens are threatened to fall below the 5% threshold".

The new narrative is obvious when you go the BILD's website right now. The headline reads at the moment: "New poll: SPD in free fall / Nahles could become SPD chief tomorrow, will it be only a short intermezzo?"

Another thing is of course that you can only access the specific poll numbers on the BILD website  if you're willing to pay for it.

I'm willing to bet real money that the first (and perhaps only) poll to show the SPD being overtaken by the AfD will be released by INSA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But it is just not true that INSA was re-aligning with the others.

They sort of did (while retaining a mild house effect), but it was months before the election rather than weeks. The extent of herding from older firms does complicate things slightly o/c - the polling industry is in a mess world over.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But it is just not true that INSA was re-aligning with the others.

They sort of did (while retaining a mild house effect), but it was months before the election rather than weeks. The extent of herding from older firms does complicate things slightly o/c - the polling industry is in a mess world over.

Well, it was only two weeks in case of the Greens. They jumped from 6% to 7% and then to 8% in that timespan prior to election day. Their final poll from September 22 which showed the Greens at 8% (finally in line with other pollsters again) was the first INSA poll which had Greens at over 7% since late January of the same year.

You're correct about the other parties, of course. Crafty bastards.

[palandio]

Ok, I took a look at the polling before the federal election again and it turns out that during most of the time INSA had an anti-CDU/CSU house effect (good in 2017), neutral on SPD (as bad as the others), pro-AfD (good in 2017), neutral (mildly favorable until mid August) on FDP (they should have sticked to their bias), pro-Linke (not so good) and anti-Greens (bad).

So yes, they are producing polls with a certain bias, but so are most firms (Forsa is far worse imho). You can also accuse them of herding regarding the Greens if you want. But their low CDU/CSU numbers and their high AfD numbers are not the result of herding, and neither is the low SPD number directly before the federal election.

Regarding the monotone and smooth curves: There is no doubt that INSA is heavily smoothing out their raw numbers, like all German polling firm do to a certain extent. But I think that they have raw numbers, they don't make them up entirely. And they know their business, at least when it comes to the final poll.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There is something suspicious, but it isn't actually the AfD figure which isn't that much different from what others have shown recently. In fact it isn't a single figure at all, but a pattern:

12th Dec - 22%
19th Dec - 21%
23rd Dec - 20.5%
2nd Jan - 19.5%
8th Jan - 19.5%
15th Jan - 18.5%
23rd Jan - 18.0%
29th Jan - 17.5%
5th Feb - 17%
12th Feb - 16.5%

Those of us who have followed polling for some time will I think understand the problem here, I think.

That reminds me of Anthony Brown's polling numbers...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Ok, I took a look at the polling before the federal election again and it turns out that during most of the time INSA had an anti-CDU/CSU house effect (good in 2017), neutral on SPD (as bad as the others), pro-AfD (good in 2017), neutral (mildly favorable until mid August) on FDP (they should have sticked to their bias), pro-Linke (not so good) and anti-Greens (bad).

I remember how harshly INSA was criticized by the left-wing press in 2013 because their prediction of the AfD result was closer to the actual outcome than anyone else's. (5% vs. 4.7%).
The left-wing media accused INSA of bearing part of the blame for the good result of the young AfD.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Does anybody dare to make a prediction as to how the first-vote results map would look like in that scenario? Which parties would win the second vote in which states? And would there many or few overhang/leveling seats? I have absolutely no clue. ¯\_ツ_/¯

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Today, the SPD executive committee is going to select Andrea Nahles as their party's chairwoman-elect.
However, there may be a member vote on who is to succeed Schulz as party leader; Mayor Simone Lange (41) of Flensburg, a city with 87,000 inhabitants bordering Denmark, may challenge her in a primary. 😂

[Tender Branson]

Lange looks refreshing.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-warum-simone-lange-gegen-andrea-nahles-antritt-a-1193260.html

Nahles is just more of the same establishment crap. Besides, Lange also has hands-on experience because she's a former Federal Criminal Office employee and knows quite a bit about crime, which could help bring back AfD-voters.

But as I know the politically-correct SPD establishment, she will of course have no chance because exactly of this reason and they will go with Nahles and off the cliff ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Lange looks refreshing.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-warum-simone-lange-gegen-andrea-nahles-antritt-a-1193260.html

Nahles is just more of the same establishment crap. Besides, Lange also has hands-on experience because she's a former Federal Criminal Office employee and knows quite a bit about crime, which could help bring back AfD-voters.

But as I know the politically-correct SPD establishment, she will of course have no chance because exactly of this reason and they will go with Nahles and off the cliff ...

There is another Social Democrat from Schleswig-Holstein that wants to become party chairman:
vocational school teacher Dirk Diedrich from Dithmarschen. Or what his friends call him: Triple D.
He is an advocate of a red-red-green coalition. He calls himself "left-independent".




And there will be a third rival candidate: lawyer Udo Schmitz from Stadland near Bremerhaven.
He is a former associate of former Munich Mayor Hans-Jochen Vogel and former Family Minister Renate Schmidt. He criticizes the "post haggling" within the SPD and says that a fish rots from the head down and that the party leadership has lost their grip on reality. He therefore wants to thwart Nahles's enthronement.

[Beezer]

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU-AfD would almost have a majority ... (48-49).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

[Tender Branson]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

Did you seriously believe that the SPD is not in trouble right now ?

One doesn't need a pollster for that ...

[Oryxslayer]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

Did you seriously believe that the SPD is not in trouble right now ?

One doesn't need a pollster for that ...

No, its more that INSA had a outlying Union result, while everyone else had them still in the low 30s.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

Did you seriously believe that the SPD is not in trouble right now ?

One doesn't need a pollster for that ...

The SPD being in trouble, the SPD being so much in trouble that they're at 16%, and INSA being a sh**tty clickbait pollster are three entirely separate issues.

I never said that the SPD isn't in trouble. They obviously are. Polling-wise, they were already in trouble than Infratest had them at 18% two weeks ago.

I was merely pointing out that INSA is not the most reliable of pollsters (except when we're one week away from election day, which we currently aren't) and that I'd like to have a second opinion before I consider it to be credible. Preferably from someone like Infratest or FGW.... No, I'm not willing to believe that the SPD is at 16% based on a single INSA poll alone. If another pollster backs it up, fine by me. This has something to do with wanting reliable empirical data.

As Oryxslayer just pointed out, INSA's CDU/CSU numbers look a bit odd compared to other pollsters. And as Al had already pointed out, the general trend of INSA's SPD numbers look a bit fishy. Except for their January 8 poll,  where INSA's SPD numbers remained stagnant, they have continously dropped in a very poll since December 19. Statistically speaking, that's simply improbable considering the high number of polls INSA has conducted and released.

Let's take a look of the development of the SPD's numbers according to other pollsters with a similarly frequent output since mid-December...


INSA

12/12: 22%
12/19: 21% (-1)
12/23: 20.5% (-0.5)
1/2: 19.5% (-1)
1/8: 19.5% (+/-0)
1/15: 18.5% (-1)
1/23: 18% (-0.5)
1/29: 17.5% (-0.5)
2/5: 17% (-0.5)
2/12: 16.5% (-0.5)


Emnid

12/16: 22%
12/23: 21% (-1)
1/6: 20% (-1)
1/13: 21% (+1)
1/20: 21% (+/-0)
1/27: 20% (-1)
2/3: 20% (+/-0)
2/10: 20% (+/-0)


Forsa

12/10: 20%
12/16: 20% (+/-0)
12/27: 19% (-1)
1/7: 20% (+1)
1/15: 20% (+/-0)
1/18: 18% (-2)
1/21: 18% (+/-0)
1/22: 17% (-1)
1/29: 18% (+1)
2/5: 18% (+/-0)
2/9: 18% (+/-0)
2/11: 17% (-1)


It even shows up with Infratest, even though they don't release polls as frequent as the others:

12/7: 21%
12/14: 20% (-1)
1/4: 21% (+1)
1/25: 19% (-2)
2/1: 18% (-1)
2/15: 16% (-2)

[mvd10]

Merkel appoints Kramp-Karrenbauer as CDU Secretary General

This, combined with Spahn's probably absence from the next Merkel cabinet, surely puts her in pole position to succeed Merkel?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel appoints Kramp-Karrenbauer as CDU Secretary General

This, combined with Spahn's probably absence from the next Merkel cabinet, surely puts her in pole position to succeed Merkel?

The rumour that Merkel wants to groom Kramp-Karrenbacher as her successor has been floating around for a few months now. Originally, it was expected that she gets in fact a cabinet position for that very reason. I've wondered myself why her name hadn't popped in the leaked cabinet lists tbh. But her impending appointment as secretary general clears that up, I guess. Spahn is conspicuously exempted from any promotions though.

[Beezer]

And it's happened...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

And it's happened...

With such trend Greens will have higher support than SPD in few weeks. I last year I thought that SPD can't go lower than 20%

[Middle-aged Europe]

If you don't mind me to do a little more INSA bashing.... the main headline on bild.de reads right now (in huge font):

"AfD OVERTAKES SPD!"

Naturally, you have to pay to access that specific article though.

Yes Tender, I know that the SPD in bad shape... that doesn't stop BILD/INSA to milk it dry in every way possible.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does it even count as a 'shock poll' if the polling firm in question has been obviously telegraphing it for some time?

Updated:

12th Dec - 22%
19th Dec - 21%
23rd Dec - 20.5%
2nd Jan - 19.5%
8th Jan - 19.5%
15th Jan - 18.5%
23rd Jan - 18.0%
29th Jan - 17.5%
5th Feb - 17.0%
12th Feb - 16.5%
19th Feb - 15.5%

One must also admire the half-a-percentage-point thing. Absolute classic.

Of course the really sad part is that you can't actually say with absolute certainty that these people are even the most obviously bent German polling firm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes Tender, I know that the SPD in bad shape

Exactly - they're in the middle of an absolutely bizarre leadership and party structural crisis the resolution of which is totally unclear. Political parties in that sort of situation tend to poll terribly, in part because if you ask people how they'd vote if there were an election tomorrow 'the total dumpster fire of a party over there' isn't a terribly attractive option even to people who always vote that way. Eyebrows are being raised in this thread for other reasons!

[Beezer]

Does it even count as a 'shock poll' if the polling firm in question has been obviously telegraphing it for some time?

Updated:

12th Dec - 22%
19th Dec - 21%
23rd Dec - 20.5%
2nd Jan - 19.5%
8th Jan - 19.5%
15th Jan - 18.5%
23rd Jan - 18.0%
29th Jan - 17.5%
5th Feb - 17.0%
12th Feb - 16.5%
19th Feb - 15.5%

One must also admire the half-a-percentage-point thing. Absolute classic.

Of course the really sad part is that you can't actually say with absolute certainty that these people are even the most obviously bent German polling firm.

While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that changes of half a point are nothing worth reporting, it should be noted that they're hardly the only ones "telegraphing" the SPD's demise...