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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 375269 times)
Beezer
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« Reply #3450 on: February 19, 2018, 11:46:22 am »

Does it even count as a 'shock poll' if the polling firm in question has been obviously telegraphing it for some time?

Updated:

12th Dec - 22%
19th Dec - 21%
23rd Dec - 20.5%
2nd Jan - 19.5%
8th Jan - 19.5%
15th Jan - 18.5%
23rd Jan - 18.0%
29th Jan - 17.5%
5th Feb - 17.0%
12th Feb - 16.5%
19th Feb - 15.5%

One must also admire the half-a-percentage-point thing. Absolute classic.

Of course the really sad part is that you can't actually say with absolute certainty that these people are even the most obviously bent German polling firm.

While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that changes of half a point are nothing worth reporting, it should be noted that they're hardly the only ones "telegraphing" the SPD's demise...

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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #3451 on: February 19, 2018, 12:18:08 pm »

One upcoming state election is completely disregarded even though it may be the most interesting one ever.
Not only could the AfD become the strongest party in Saxony next fall (even a majority is possible), and a new party (Frauke Petry's Blue Party) could enter the parliament, it can't be ruled out anymore that the SPD could even come below the 5% threshold...

Landtag election 2014: 12.4%
Bundestag election 2017: 10.5%
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HCP
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« Reply #3452 on: February 19, 2018, 12:29:10 pm »

What are the odds of the SPD being PASOK'd for good vs recovering strongly like the Grits?
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Not Senator Not Madigan
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« Reply #3453 on: February 19, 2018, 12:41:19 pm »

Welp, I didn't expect it that quickly.  Can't wait for another poll to confirm so everyone stops doubting Tongue
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rob in cal
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« Reply #3454 on: February 19, 2018, 12:59:56 pm »

  Wow, Saxony this year could really provide some historical results.  Would love to see one of the big two parties (or formerly big) miss the 5% threshold.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #3455 on: February 19, 2018, 01:09:35 pm »

Wow, Saxony this next year could really provide some historical results.  Would love to see one of the big two parties (or formerly big) miss the 5% threshold.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #3456 on: February 19, 2018, 01:46:14 pm »

While I believe that support for the SPD has dropped over the past few months, from a statistical standpoint, it's clear that nearly all of these polls ought to be chucked into a dumpster. Suppose that the SPD's polling numbers reflect their actual support. Then, they've roughly gone from 20% to 16%. German polls have very large sample sizes so I'll be generous and assume a standard error of 1% - I could probably figure this out precisely but I don't feel like it. Further, I'll suppose that, for each poll posted by Al that the polling figure for the SPD is the actual support for the SPD.

With this in mind, what are the odds of that pattern showing up if, indeed, it was the actual support for the SPD? We can think about this in different ways. First, I'll use a random number generator based on the normal distribution (20 samples) and assume that the 0.5% drop is real for some week, say, from 17% to 16.5%:



Roughly half of the time, we'd expect nothing to register in the poll and, this is what I think matters, in 3 separate cases, the SPD would increase their polling figure. Now, this is a random number generator so this would vary but the point being - if the polling companies weren't fudging their numbers, even if the sustained drop is real, we'd expect there to be a poll or two where the SPD increased their polling figure. That this hasn't happened is extremely suspicious and indicative of a human hand dictated the polling figures.
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"In this historic hour, we solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism. No Executive Order gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible."
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Old Europe
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« Reply #3457 on: February 20, 2018, 04:32:40 am »

While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that changes of half a point are nothing worth reporting, it should be noted that they're hardly the only ones "telegraphing" the SPD's demise...



INSA is the only polling institute which exclusively reports dropping numbers for the SPD in every poll they published since mid-December. Most of the other insitutes at least had one or the two polls in this period where the SPD slightly improved... which is more plausible, statistically speaking.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 05:34:59 am by Great Again: American Horror Story »Logged

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« Reply #3458 on: February 21, 2018, 04:34:06 pm »

If you don't mind me to do a little more INSA bashing.... the main headline on bild.de reads right now (in huge font):

"AfD OVERTAKES SPD!"

Naturally, you have to pay to access that specific article though.

Yes Tender, I know that the SPD in bad shape... that doesn't stop BILD/INSA to milk it dry in every way possible.

Here's a little fun fact about INSA:

The URL of the polling firm is: www.insa-meinungstrend.de
The URL www.insa.de, however, is registered for the local public transport information system of Saxony-Anhalt.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #3459 on: February 21, 2018, 04:50:45 pm »

Of the SPD voters who would not vote for the Social Democrats, one third (34 percent) would not vote. 24 percent would move to the Greens, 20 percent to the Union parties, eleven percent to the Left Party , six percent to the FDP , four percent to the AfD and one percent to another party.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 08:28:48 pm by King of Kensington »Logged
Harlow
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« Reply #3460 on: February 21, 2018, 05:06:27 pm »

Of SPD defectors, 34% would no longer vote, 24 would vote Green and 20% each for the FPD and AFD.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb

No defectors to Die Linke?
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #3461 on: February 21, 2018, 05:16:17 pm »

Of SPD defectors, 34% would no longer vote, 24 would vote Green and 20% each for the FPD and AFD for the CDU/CSU, 11% for the Left, 6% for the FDP and 4% for the AfD.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb
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Harlow
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« Reply #3462 on: February 21, 2018, 05:39:17 pm »

That makes much more sense.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #3463 on: February 22, 2018, 11:46:48 pm »

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Beezer
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« Reply #3464 on: February 23, 2018, 03:39:12 am »

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Beezer
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« Reply #3465 on: February 23, 2018, 03:41:25 am »



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DavidB.
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« Reply #3466 on: February 23, 2018, 07:59:04 am »

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now
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Old Europe
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« Reply #3467 on: February 23, 2018, 08:32:54 am »

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

I understand that you've apparently degenerated into some kind of troll now who's not interested any longer in any meaningful debate. Therefore it's probably a waste of my life-time to write these sentences.

However, the criticism I've (and probably Al as well, but he should speak for himself if he wants to) brought forward against INSA doesn't apply to these Infratest and FGW polls. The most recent Infratest poll which showed a small gain for the SPD - while remaining at a very low overall level - does in fact underline my argument that the INSA numbers are statistically implausible.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #3468 on: February 25, 2018, 02:09:46 pm »

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

Literally no one is making this argument - people are arguing that INSA is a trash polling company.
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"In this historic hour, we solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism. No Executive Order gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible."
-Otto Wels Enabling Act speech, paraphrased
mvd10
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« Reply #3469 on: February 25, 2018, 03:07:16 pm »

JENS SPAHN IN CABINET
MUTTI ALL IS FORGIVEN


But healthcare is quite a thorny portfolio right? What did the SPD and CDU/CSU agree on healthcare anyway?
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Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

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The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
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« Reply #3470 on: February 26, 2018, 09:57:19 am »

97% of the delegates of the CDU party convention have approved the coalition agreement.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #3471 on: February 26, 2018, 10:29:15 am »

98.87% of the delegates elected Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, currently Minister President of the Saarland, Secretary General.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3472 on: February 28, 2018, 03:45:26 pm »

Brand new YouGov poll:



Compared with their poll from a month ago:

CDU/CSU: -2%
SPD: -3%
AfD: +2%
Greens: +2%
Left: +1%
FDP: n.c.
Others: n.c.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #3473 on: March 01, 2018, 08:16:19 am »

YouGov are also far-right meanies! Sad
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Not Senator Not Madigan
Not_Madigan
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« Reply #3474 on: March 01, 2018, 01:36:32 pm »

Rest in Spaghet SPD, Forever Regret
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