Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 14, 2018, 02:35:39 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 134 135 136 137 138 [139] 140 141 142 143 144 ... 177 Print
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 437538 times)
King of Kensington
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,411


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3450 on: February 21, 2018, 04:50:45 pm »

Of the SPD voters who would not vote for the Social Democrats, one third (34 percent) would not vote. 24 percent would move to the Greens, 20 percent to the Union parties, eleven percent to the Left Party , six percent to the FDP , four percent to the AfD and one percent to another party.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 08:28:48 pm by King of Kensington »Logged
Harlow
Full Member
***
Posts: 136


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3451 on: February 21, 2018, 05:06:27 pm »

Of SPD defectors, 34% would no longer vote, 24 would vote Green and 20% each for the FPD and AFD.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb

No defectors to Die Linke?
Logged

Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3452 on: February 21, 2018, 05:16:17 pm »

Of SPD defectors, 34% would no longer vote, 24 would vote Green and 20% each for the FPD and AFD for the CDU/CSU, 11% for the Left, 6% for the FDP and 4% for the AfD.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb
Logged

Harlow
Full Member
***
Posts: 136


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3453 on: February 21, 2018, 05:39:17 pm »

That makes much more sense.
Logged

Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3454 on: February 22, 2018, 11:46:48 pm »

Logged

Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,805


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3455 on: February 23, 2018, 03:39:12 am »

Logged

Beezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,805


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3456 on: February 23, 2018, 03:41:25 am »



Logged

DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,781
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3457 on: February 23, 2018, 07:59:04 am »

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Great Again No More
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,938


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3458 on: February 23, 2018, 08:32:54 am »

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

I understand that you've apparently degenerated into some kind of troll now who's not interested any longer in any meaningful debate. Therefore it's probably a waste of my life-time to write these sentences.

However, the criticism I've (and probably Al as well, but he should speak for himself if he wants to) brought forward against INSA doesn't apply to these Infratest and FGW polls. The most recent Infratest poll which showed a small gain for the SPD - while remaining at a very low overall level - does in fact underline my argument that the INSA numbers are statistically implausible.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,786
Mexico


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3459 on: February 25, 2018, 02:09:46 pm »

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

Literally no one is making this argument - people are arguing that INSA is a trash polling company.
Logged



"In this historic hour, we solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism. No Executive Order gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible."
-Otto Wels Enabling Act speech, paraphrased
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3460 on: February 25, 2018, 03:07:16 pm »

JENS SPAHN IN CABINET
MUTTI ALL IS FORGIVEN


But healthcare is quite a thorny portfolio right? What did the SPD and CDU/CSU agree on healthcare anyway?
Logged

Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

The evolution of my dreams

The death of the arts to the forces of rationalization and greed, encapsulated in a single man. Sad
Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3461 on: February 26, 2018, 09:57:19 am »

97% of the delegates of the CDU party convention have approved the coalition agreement.
Logged

Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3462 on: February 26, 2018, 10:29:15 am »

98.87% of the delegates elected Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, currently Minister President of the Saarland, Secretary General.

Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3463 on: February 28, 2018, 03:45:26 pm »

Brand new YouGov poll:



Compared with their poll from a month ago:

CDU/CSU: -2%
SPD: -3%
AfD: +2%
Greens: +2%
Left: +1%
FDP: n.c.
Others: n.c.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,781
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: 3.74

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3464 on: March 01, 2018, 08:16:19 am »

YouGov are also far-right meanies! Sad
Logged

He's a very smart guy. However, he has the small problem of being f**king insane.
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,763
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -6.09

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3465 on: March 01, 2018, 01:36:32 pm »

Rest in Spaghet SPD, Forever Regret
Logged

The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,734


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3466 on: March 01, 2018, 02:09:07 pm »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232
Logged

Blessed to live in such a great state. We may be Democrats, Republicans, or neither, but more importantly, we are all Floridians.
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,548
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3467 on: March 01, 2018, 02:21:30 pm »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?
Logged
King Francis I
windjammer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,581
France


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3468 on: March 01, 2018, 02:34:13 pm »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?
Well, if the greens don't reach 5% it appears Afd+Linke have the absolute majority
Logged

Quote
Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,468
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3469 on: March 01, 2018, 03:15:54 pm »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,416


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3470 on: March 01, 2018, 03:20:24 pm »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

Yep, and something to add is that Linke is not 'taboo' in the way the AfD is. The current Brandenburg government government is SPD+Linke.
Logged

I now have a Twitter for my maps: https://twitter.com/OryxMaps


This is my fair district map. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,548
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3471 on: March 01, 2018, 04:54:38 pm »

^

Sure, but still, Linke would never do a deal with AfD or CDU right?

If AfD+Linke has a majority and AfD+CDU has one as well (ie not even R2G would save you) then that state is ed.
Logged
The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,734


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3472 on: March 01, 2018, 05:16:05 pm »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

Ah, my mistake.
Logged

Blessed to live in such a great state. We may be Democrats, Republicans, or neither, but more importantly, we are all Floridians.
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 62,240
United Kingdom


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3473 on: March 01, 2018, 05:20:50 pm »

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

...is there any particular reason why they decided to do a poll of the state election for the city of Cottbus? Bizarre.
Logged



pilskonzept
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 88


Political Matrix
E: -2.67, S: -2.92

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3474 on: March 01, 2018, 05:41:45 pm »

Polls of a single city are to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Einwohnerentwicklung_von_Cottbus_-_ab_1871.svg) the sort of area where those numbers are certainly credible.

If Left+AfD combined ever get a majority of seats, the most likely thing to happen is a CDU (or, less likely, SPD) minority government. Unless AfD becomes the strongest party, in which case there will probably be early elections, which will result in someone else (i.e. CDU) winning a plurality and forming a coalition or minority government.

(The 2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election was a close shave, resulting in a CDU-SPD-Green coalition.)


Logged
Pages: 1 ... 134 135 136 137 138 [139] 140 141 142 143 144 ... 177 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines