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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655335 times)
TheSaint250
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« Reply #3575 on: June 22, 2018, 09:38:08 PM »

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)
G
Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

NazBol coalition, here we come!

You may laugh, but the end of the Weimar Republic came when there was a "negative majority" (ie commies+Hitler had a majority so no one could form a government without either of them).

If AfD+Linke gets a majority and a left wing SPD+Linke+Greens deal is also impossible (as seems likely) then government formation will be a sh**tshow at best and at worst won't happen and there will be a caretaker government forever.

Either that or CDU finally bites the bullet and does a deal with AfD. And honestly they should to that sooner rather than later, otherwise the chancellor (or regional president) might be from AfD instead of CDU.

Funny enough, if that INSA poll is to be believed, a CDU/CSU split might be the only way to prevent this Tongue
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rob in cal
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« Reply #3576 on: June 22, 2018, 11:16:26 PM »

  In the last years of Weimar, the NazBol negative majority started happening in Landtags as well, with the Prussian landtag elected in 1932 the classic example.  The SPD Minister President Otto Braun stayed on as caretaker after the elections, and the fact that it was a caretaker administration gave Chancellor Papen an excuse to oust that regime.
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Beezer
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« Reply #3577 on: June 23, 2018, 07:40:20 AM »



http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/21/differing-views-of-immigrants-pose-a-test-for-germanys-coalition-government/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3578 on: June 24, 2018, 02:30:02 AM »

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #3579 on: June 24, 2018, 02:54:18 AM »

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Bavaria should just secede and join Austria.
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JonHawk
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« Reply #3580 on: June 24, 2018, 07:26:59 AM »

Soder sounds like an FF governor
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Beezer
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« Reply #3581 on: June 24, 2018, 09:12:36 AM »

Greater Bavaria is only a matter of time now.

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President Johnson
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« Reply #3582 on: June 24, 2018, 02:59:39 PM »

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3583 on: June 24, 2018, 04:25:56 PM »

Greater Bavaria is only a matter of time now.



Poor state lost Franconia and Swabia, and seems to have ditched Vorarlberg as well. It got South Tyrol back, at least.

Also, those placenames are all Bavarian German, right?
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mvd10
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« Reply #3584 on: June 24, 2018, 04:34:27 PM »

Bavaria, a beautiful, #economicallyDYNAMIC, conservative place. So beautiful Cry.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #3585 on: June 25, 2018, 11:37:29 AM »

Greater Bavaria is only a matter of time now.


Parliamentary monarchy? Should it be a Habsburg or a Wittelsbach?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3586 on: June 25, 2018, 11:55:27 AM »

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.

More or less.

It's pretty common that politicians invite other foreign politicians from the same political grouping to campaign for them.

I remember that Martin Schulz campaigned with Kern before the Austrian election here and Christian Lindner was invited by NEOS and Gregor Gysi was at an event for the KPÖ.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #3587 on: June 25, 2018, 12:23:12 PM »


Parliamentary monarchy? Should it be a Habsburg or a Wittelsbach?

Hungarian-style regency.
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Beezer
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« Reply #3588 on: June 27, 2018, 07:31:15 AM »

Greater Bavaria is only a matter of time now.



Poor state lost Franconia and Swabia, and seems to have ditched Vorarlberg as well. It got South Tyrol back, at least.

Also, those placenames are all Bavarian German, right?

It will be a purely Bavarian ethno state.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3589 on: June 28, 2018, 11:32:45 AM »

New INSA poll for the Bayern state election on Oct. 14:



Changes compared with 2013:

CSU: -6.7%
AfD: +14.0%
SPD: -7.6%
Greens: +4.4%
FW: -3.0%
FDP: +1.7%
Left: +0.9%
Others: -3.7%
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3590 on: June 28, 2018, 07:42:53 PM »

Really good video from the BBC about Bavaria and the current crisis with Merkel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBBQn7nv13U
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Beezer
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« Reply #3591 on: July 01, 2018, 04:59:49 PM »

Seehofer will apparently hand in his resignation.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #3592 on: July 01, 2018, 05:22:10 PM »

Seehofer will apparently hand in his resignation.

It hasn't been confirmed yet
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windjammer
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« Reply #3593 on: July 01, 2018, 05:24:05 PM »

Why the CSU is running only in Bayern? They have a lot of potenials if they become a national party.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #3594 on: July 01, 2018, 06:55:47 PM »

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.

No. Who would even establish such a trans-national law? Additionally, it's not even a custom. Many European heads of state and government endorsed Hillary in 2016 and they endorsed candidates in elections before then too.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3595 on: July 02, 2018, 12:20:38 PM »





Also:

48% "Grand" Coalition
48% Opposition
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #3596 on: July 03, 2018, 05:32:57 AM »

https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/merkel-settles-migration-row-with-bavarian-ally

Apparently there is deal between Merkel and Seehofer, now SPD must agree (or not agree).
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #3597 on: July 03, 2018, 05:45:21 AM »


It will be a purely Bavarian ethno state.

No, Bozen has italian majority
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mvd10
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« Reply #3598 on: July 03, 2018, 05:48:00 AM »
« Edited: July 03, 2018, 05:51:02 AM by mvd10 »

Why the CSU is running only in Bayern? They have a lot of potenials if they become a national party.

CDU would run in Bavaria too and CSU would be a lot less dominant in their little fiefdom. I'd also wonder what moderate CSU members and very right-wing CDU members would do. Even though CSU is somewhat different from the CDU both parties probably would have to move away from each other politically if they really want to differentiate. Would the CSU even accept people like Spahn or other very right-wing CDU politicians telling them what to do btw?
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mvd10
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« Reply #3599 on: July 03, 2018, 05:50:10 AM »

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.

I believe Merkel was pretty open about her support for Sarkozy in 2012, and he wasn't even running against an extremist/populist. Hollande had some radical ideas but I think nobody ever thought he'd blow up the EU, and I believe Merkel still clearly signalled she supported Sarkozy. I could be wrong though.
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