German Elections & Politics

[palandio]

Philip Oltermann's article in the Guardian is not very clear on many points and factually wrong on many other points, so it is no wonder that you misunderstood a lot of things.

Firstly what is discussed in the article is not Die Linke's approach, but that of Sahra Wagenknecht (who is one of two leaders of the parliamentary caucus and not party chairwoman like the article counterfactually claims). Wagenknecht's position seems to be minoritarian within her party and a new political movement along her ideas would imho have to be a split from Die Linke and not an extension of Die Linke.

And the term 'national social' is not used by anyone from Wagenknecht's supporters, but only by journalist Philip Oltermann, whose sympathies don't seem to fall on the 'national social' side at all. In fact his stance seems to be more or less what can be expected from a journalist writing for the Guardian or most other newspapers. Wagenknecht and her supporters certainly have their flaws, but the way he has written his "report" can only be called intellectually dishonest.

Apart from that you are of course right to cast a lot of doubt on the possible success of such an initiative. And the 'national social' theme will of course be played a lot and this will not favor them.

[mvd10]

Philip Oltermann's article in the Guardian is not very clear on many points and factually wrong on many other points, so it is no wonder that you misunderstood a lot of things.

Firstly what is discussed in the article is not Die Linke's approach, but that of Sahra Wagenknecht (who is one of two leaders of the parliamentary caucus and not party chairwoman like the article counterfactually claims). Wagenknecht's position seems to be minoritarian within her party and a new political movement along her ideas would imho have to be a split from Die Linke and not an extension of Die Linke.

And the term 'national social' is not used by anyone from Wagenknecht's supporters, but only by journalist Philip Oltermann, whose sympathies don't seem to fall on the 'national social' side at all. In fact his stance seems to be more or less what can be expected from a journalist writing for the Guardian or most other newspapers. Wagenknecht and her supporters certainly have their flaws, but the way he has written his "report" can only be called intellectually dishonest.

Apart from that you are of course right to cast a lot of doubt on the possible success of such an initiative. And the 'national social' theme will of course be played a lot and this will not favor them.

Ah, thanks for the explanation

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Interstingly Markus Söder is actually protestant.

Wow! I didn't know that fact.
But he isn't the first Protestant governor of Bavaria; Middle Franconian Protestant Günther Beckstein was minister-president for a whopping 384 days in 2007/08, until he was "recommended" to step down due to an abysmal state election result of 10% 20% 30% 40% 43.4%, which was the third-worst result for the CSU after ever (which may be deceeded this fall).
It's also interesting how Beckstein took office...
Fürth County commissioner Gabriele Pauli (CSU) vented her displeasure about her Minister-President and CSU party leader Edmund Stoiber in 2006. Among other things, she taxed him with misogyny and complained about his relatively low approval ratings.
In revenge, he had fellow party members sounded out about her private life, for example about drinking problems and male acquaintances. When the political machinations were revealed, Pauli called for a party member vote for both the party leadership and the gubernatorial nomination, both of which passed muster with the next party convention.
As Stoiber didn't want to risk a defeat or a bad result and because of the still declining polling numbers, he stepped down from both from either post. The party members chose Günther Beckstein as their minister-presidential candidate (who was consequently elected minister-president by the Bavarian Landtag on October 9, 2007, one prior to the next Landtag election), and Erwin Huber was elected party leader.
Pauli left the CSU in November 2007 and joined the Free Voters in June 2008. She became a Landtag member for that party that fall and led the party list for the European election in 2009, where the Free Voters, however, fell below the 5% threshold. As she didn't see any real chance for the Voters to be elected to the Bundestag that same year, she considered founding a new party called Free Union, for which she was expelled from the Free Voters.
She eventually wanted to stand for the Bundestag election with her newly founded party, but ... she forgot to sign the application she submitted to the Federal Returning Officer... 🤦‍♂️

Günther Beckstein	Gabriele Pauli	Erwin Huber

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

[Tender Branson]

It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

Thanks, I didn't know that ...

Now that I have read about the 15 amendments, I'd approve all of them via straight-ticket choice (which is an option for voters).

Voters can either approve the changes to the constitution by straight-ticket confirmation or each amendment individually.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

Thanks, I didn't know that ...

Now that I have read about the 15 amendments, I'd approve all of them via straight-ticket choice (which is an option for voters).

Voters can either approve the changes to the constitution by straight-ticket confirmation or each amendment individually.

Even the avowal to the EU?

[Tender Branson]

It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

Thanks, I didn't know that ...

Now that I have read about the 15 amendments, I'd approve all of them via straight-ticket choice (which is an option for voters).

Voters can either approve the changes to the constitution by straight-ticket confirmation or each amendment individually.

Even the avowal to the EU?

Yes.

Currently, the Hesse constitution reads:

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The proposed amendment says:

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There's nothing wrong with such principles in the Hessian constitution. Now that Germany is a member of the EU, Hesse is not only a state of Germany any longer - but also an integral part of the EU.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, these are the 15 proposed amendments to the Hesse state constitution that people will vote on in October:



* equality between men/women into the constitution
* a right to data privacy (in IT) into the constitution
* strong children's rights into the constitution (against abuse)
* death penalty out of the constitution
* insert a definition of several state goals into the constitution
* among these state goals: a focus on sustainability
* a focus on strengthening infrastructure
* a focus on strengthening culture
* a focus on strengthening voluntary civil service (red cross, firebrigades etc.)
* a focus on strengthening sports
* a commitment to Europe into the constitution
* lowering the passive voting age to 18 (= min. age for candidates in the state parliament)
* detailed digital publication of all laws on the state government website
* a commitment and strengthening of direct democracy with lower signature thresholds
* full independence of the court of audit

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There's nothing wrong with such principles in the Hessian constitution. Now that Germany is a member of the EU, Hesse is not only a state of Germany any longer - but also an integral part of the EU.

But that would also mean a step forward to the abolishment of the Germany sovereignty.
I'm dying to get to know the breakdown of the party vote regarding all those amendments. Many people will realize for the first that many citizens share many items of the AfD manifesto.

In particular the question about the abolition of the death penalty will be intersting. It will be funny to see how many people are going to vote against its abolishment, albeit just for fun.

[Tender Branson]

There's nothing wrong with such principles in the Hessian constitution. Now that Germany is a member of the EU, Hesse is not only a state of Germany any longer - but also an integral part of the EU.

But that would also mean a step forward to the abolishment of the Germany sovereignty.
I'm dying to get to know the breakdown of the party vote regarding all those amendments. Many people will realize for the first that many citizens share many items of the AfD manifesto.

State constitutions are pretty meaningless, because federal law trumps a lot in this regard.

So of what effect would it be that Hesse rejects EU commitment when Germany as a whole has already joined the EU ?

I could see this question being some sort of protest vote, but I don't think it will be higher than 30-35%. Maybe even just 20-25% in the end.

The death penalty repeal* will also get just limited opposition: polls show that only 10-20% of Germans/Austrians these days support the death penalty.

* of course, the death penalty is already repealed in the federal German constitution, which trumps Hesse's, so this is only a formal vote anyway.

BTW: how is it possible that Hesse voters are allowed to vote on the subject of the death penalty in the first place ? I thought some EU guideline forbids member states to hold referendums on the death penalty ? What if - highly theoretically - Hesse votes in favour of keeping the death penalty in their constitution ?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But that would also mean a step forward to the abolishment of the Germany sovereignty.
I'm dying to get to know the breakdown of the party vote regarding all those amendments. Many people will realize for the first that many citizens share many items of the AfD manifesto.

State constitutions are pretty meaningless, because federal law trumps a lot in this regard.

So of what effect would it be that Hesse rejects EU commitment when Germany as a whole has already joined the EU ?

I could see this question being some sort of protest vote, but I don't think it will be higher than 30-35%. Maybe even just 20-25% in the end.

The death penalty repeal* will also get just limited opposition: polls show that only 10-20% of Germans/Austrians these days support the death penalty.

* the death penalty of course is already repealed of course in the federal German constitution, which trumps Hesse's, so this is only a formal vote.
[/quote]

The German government is already planning on abolishing the Federal Republic of Germany in favor of founding the United States of Europe. Most Germans fiercely oppose this idea, even if they support the EU in general. The Hessians could thwart the government's plans by their protest vote.

I could also see many Hessians voting against the abolition fo the death penalty, simply just as a kind of running gag, but also for the purpose of a veto against the Kuscheljustiz that has become rampant in the German judicial machinery.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

* of course, the death penalty is already repealed in the federal German constitution, which trumps Hesse's, so this is only a formal vote anyway.

BTW: how is it possible that Hesse voters are allowed to vote on the subject of the death penalty in the first place ? I thought some EU guideline forbids member states to hold referendums on the death penalty ? What if - highly theoretically - Hesse votes in favour of keeping the death penalty in their constitution ?

Since federal law breaks state law, and as Hesse is not a member state of the EU, it seems to be possible.

[Beezer]

AfD in a battle for first place in Brandenburg according to Civey.



https://app.civey.com/shares/1984

[pilskonzept]

Well, it's Civey - see INSA.

Though a more serious pollster (Infratest dimap) reported a 3-way tie - CDU and SPD at 23 each, AfD at 22, Left at 17 - back in April. The SPD dominance in Brandenburg seems gone for good.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm such a political and psephologist nerd that I first thought those were the poll numbers for the SPD in the Schröder era...

[DavidB.]

I'm such a political and psephologist nerd that I first thought those were the poll numbers for the SPD in the Schröder era...

Ostfriesland should be among his best regions though, not his worst -- big giveaway!

[pilskonzept]

YouGov's AfD numbers for 2021, I guess.

Finally getting a few drops of rain now.

[DavidB.]

YouGov's AfD numbers for 2021, I guess.

Come to think of it, it probably indicates the year to which AfD members in these regions want to go back.

[President Johnson]

AfD in a battle for first place in Brandenburg according to Civey.



https://app.civey.com/shares/1984

Holy sh***. The SPD usually gets over 30% in Brandenburg. If these numbers hold to be true, the red-red coalition is toast. More toast than Bruce Rauner is in Illinois.

I have a feeling that one journalist who recently wrote an opinion piece on Tagesschau is right: The time of the SPD as a political factor may just be over, no matter what they do.

[DavidB.]

Another poll, by Infratest Dimap (not INSA), showing AfD at 17% and the Union at an all-time low. I'm sure our German posters in denial will call this one a Lügen-Umfrage too, though.

[JA]

Another poll, by Infratest Dimap (not INSA), showing AfD at 17% and the Union at an all-time low. I'm sure our German posters in denial will call this one a Lügen-Umfrage too, though.

Talk about a surge for The Greens (relative to their '17 election results). I assume the growth in their numbers is primarily at the expense of the SPD? Is there a legitimate chance that The Greens eclipse the SPD during the next federal election, thereby making the three largest parties the CSU, Afd, and Grüne?

[President Johnson]

Another poll, by Infratest Dimap (not INSA), showing AfD at 17% and the Union at an all-time low. I'm sure our German posters in denial will call this one a Lügen-Umfrage too, though.

This here is really bigly:



74% disapprove the job performance of the federal government. Really a great job Merkel and Nahles!

[pilskonzept]

Talk about a surge for The Greens (relative to their '17 election results). I assume the growth in their numbers is primarily at the expense of the SPD? Is there a legitimate chance that The Greens eclipse the SPD during the next federal election, thereby making the three largest parties the CSU, Afd, and Grüne?

AfD being among the top three is probably a given. The rest will depend on whether SPD or the Greens can keep their own foot-in-mouth tendencies in check.

[parochial boy]

SPD + Greens +Linke are now pretty reliably polling in the 40-42% region, which is still a pretty undeniable move on the combined 38.5% they got in September. Amid all the talk about the AFD surge, that seems to be worth pointing out

[mvd10]

SPD + Greens +Linke are now pretty reliably polling in the 40-42% region, which is still a pretty undeniable move on the combined 38.5% they got in September. Amid all the talk about the AFD surge, that seems to be worth pointing out

Reminds me of the epic PvdA bounce (from 6% to 10%!). At that stage I was predicting a PvdA comeback. Didn't happen though.