German Elections & Politics

[mvd10]

Well, hypothetically a Germany with FPTP (298 seats) would have had a massive CDU/CSU majority and everyone else basically irrelevant

Well no, because FPTP makes people vote differently.

This lol. Someone created a hypothetical Dutch district map and he found out the VVD would win 75% of the seats with 21% of the vote in 2017. Now, I'd love the VVD junta but I imagine there'd be some tactical voting with left-wingers (and maybe Christian Democrats too). I guess D66 would definitely be screwed (iirc polls show they're pretty much split 50/50 when it comes to hypothetical VVD vs GL/PvdA horse races, with maybe a slight lean to the left).

I imagine the Greens and to a lesser extent the FDP would lose a lot of support if Germany went full FPTP. I guess CDU/CSU and SPD would dominate, with Die Linke and AfD having their own support bases in certain areas. Maybe a random new centrist party pops up (for butthurt FDP and Green voters), but I doubt it. The Greens probably would come to an agreement with the SPD where the Greens get to run their candidates in hip urban cores. Maybe the FDP does that with CDU/CSU too, but I feel like the gap between these parties is bigger and CDU/CSU wouldn't really need the FDP for now anyway.

[DL]

France uses a form of FPTP and it hasn't prevented a proliferation of small parties winning seats...

[Former President tack50]

France uses a form of FPTP and it hasn't prevented a proliferation of small parties winning seats...

Sure, but it has made it so moderate parties have a much easier time winning seats. Just look at the legislatives. Both FN and FI were above PS in the popular vote. However by the end of the election FN got 8 seats and FI 10 seats, compared to PS' 45 seats.

If Germany copied France both AfD and Linke would become fringe parties with a handful of seats, while SPD and CDU/CSU would cement themselves as the only ones with a chance. I guess the Greens might barely survive thanks to votes in hip urban centres while FDP would probably die because of its vote being too spread out.

If Germany wants to return to stability, copying France might be an ok idea. Plus, at least in the short term it would ensure CDU/CSU domination.

[Gary J]

Imperial Germany used a two ballot electoral system before 1918. It did not produce anything close to a single party majority in the Reichstag.

In 1911, a British proponent of proportional representation, pointed out some flaws with the second ballot system then used in Germany.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/9630/pg9630.html

[Diouf]

If Germany should change its electoral system, it should of course be in a more proportional direction, not less. The two main problems of contemporary German politics are related; the insistence on majority governments and cordon sanitaire against parties winning a larger and larger share of the votes. When the majority masochism is gone, it should be much easier for the established parties to cooperate with the parties currently kept out of influence. Certainly SPD-Greens should quite quickly be able to make arrangements with die Linke, and at some point the centre-right parties could hopefully do the same with AfD

[pilskonzept]

Another federal INSA poll is out.

CDU/CSU: 28,0%
SPD 16,5%
AfD: 16,5%
Greens: 13,5%
Left: 10,5%
FDP: 10,0%

...which is pretty boring by INSA standards.

[Ethelberth]

If Germany should change its electoral system, it should of course be in a more proportional direction, not less. The two main problems of contemporary German politics are related; the insistence on majority governments and cordon sanitaire against parties winning a larger and larger share of the votes. When the majority masochism is gone, it should be much easier for the established parties to cooperate with the parties currently kept out of influence. Certainly SPD-Greens should quite quickly be able to make arrangements with die Linke, and at some point the centre-right parties could hopefully do the same with AfD

Danish system with one MP voting for rest of the parliament would be also efficient.

[Tender Branson]

New MDR/Infratest dimap polls for the 2019 Sachsen and Thüringen state elections:

[Diouf]

If Germany should change its electoral system, it should of course be in a more proportional direction, not less. The two main problems of contemporary German politics are related; the insistence on majority governments and cordon sanitaire against parties winning a larger and larger share of the votes. When the majority masochism is gone, it should be much easier for the established parties to cooperate with the parties currently kept out of influence. Certainly SPD-Greens should quite quickly be able to make arrangements with die Linke, and at some point the centre-right parties could hopefully do the same with AfD

Danish system with one MP voting for rest of the parliament would be also efficient.

Keine Hexerei, nur Behändigkeit

[SunSt0rm]

New MDR/Infratest dimap polls for the 2019 Sachsen and Thüringen state elections:

There is a real chance in both states that AfD and Linke will get a majority. What would happen in such scenario? Eastern CDU (who are more conservative?) negotiate with AfD to get a CDU government tolerated by AfD or will CDU+SPD and possibly others seek for Linke support?

[Beezer]

The latter. While Merkel remains in office there is simply no chance of the CDU cooperating with the AfD anywhere. The idea that the CDU has to be able to cooperate with the more "realist" east German Left Party has been floated on a number of occasions now by several CDU politicians.

[Beezer]

Since we've been discussing FPTP...

https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

[Beezer]

And another model:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?map=btw21e_prognose_180816

[bigic]

New MDR/Infratest dimap polls for the 2019 Sachsen and Thüringen state elections:

Could we see a first four-party coalition of CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP?
BTW I can't even quote images when under 20 posts!

[President Johnson]

New MDR/Infratest dimap polls for the 2019 Sachsen and Thüringen state elections:

It's going to be fun if these polls hold true (what I doubt). A four party coalition isn't working with CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP. However, it begins to look like that the European elections become "establishment" vs. "populists" instead of conservatives vs. social dems.

[EPG]

The party system of the European Parliament, in which Germany has a large fraction of seats, is naturally very strongly correlated with the party system of Germany.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

France uses a form of FPTP and it hasn't prevented a proliferation of small parties winning seats...

If Germany copied France both AfD and Linke would become fringe parties with a handful of seats, while SPD and CDU/CSU would cement themselves as the only ones with a chance. I guess the Greens might barely survive thanks to votes in hip urban centres while FDP would probably die because of its vote being too spread out.

That's actually not predictable yet; the first-vote map can't be transferred to a situation where the members of parliament are elected via the FPTP system. Especially in the last election many people gave their first vote to the CDU or the SPD in order to prevent an AfD win in their district, as those voters (in particular from the Greens and the Left) could still give their decisive second vote to their own party. I'm not sure if that many voters would vote tactically in a FPTP system.
Both the Left and the AfD each won the second vote in 7 constituencies, wheres they only won 5 or 3 direct mandates, respectively. I'm not suggesting that that's a huge increase, but given the current polls, where the CDU/CSU performs three percentage points worse and the AfD four percentage points better than in the last federal election, the latter is likely to win the second vote in waaaay more constituencies next time. As to the FDP, however, you're absolutely right, and that's one argument more for introducing the FPTP system.

first-vote winners = direct mandate winners	second-vote winning parties Note that blue stands for both the CSU and AfD.

[Ethelberth]

The party system of the European Parliament, in which Germany has a large fraction of seats, is naturally very strongly correlated with the party system of Germany.

That is recent development. Lengedarly, 1994-1999 Germans had MEPs in three caucuses, whereas even Luxembourg had more pluralistic delegation. Traditionally, the EP caucuses were based on in-fights within French right. Nowadays, Poland is  a new France.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are two facts about the AfD:
Hesse and Bavaria will be the only two state until October where the AfD is currently not being represented in their respective parliaments.
The last Bavarian state election had been held one week before the 2013 federal election. For strategic reasons, the AfD didn't want to seek ballot status.
In Hesse, on the other hand, where the last federal election took place on the same day as the federal election, the AfD failed to pass the 5% threshold. Hesse is therefore the only state where the AfD unsuccessfully competed for entering parliament.
From fall 2019 on it is possible that the AfD will be the only party that is represented in every state parliament.

[republicanbayer]

I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%

In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

While it could happen that AfD and Linke get a majority next fall, it's completely unrealistic that "Die Blauen" will make it into the parliament. I don't even see them getting close to 1%. Frauke Petry is completely irrelevant. When Bernd Lucke left the party, the AfD crashed in the polls. After Petry left it, the AfD gained a few percent. And even Lucke's Party never came close to getting 1% in any election.
I don't get why the SPD wouldn't get above 5%. They're above 10% in every single poll but one - and that was an INSA poll. And don't forget that the Saxony CDU is the most conservative CDU state party in all of Germany. They have more in common with the CSU than with Günther, Laschet or even Merkel. I guess they'd rather have a minority government supported by the AfD than a coalition with Die Linke, because the latter would be pure suicide.

[President Johnson]

Here are two facts about the AfD:
Hesse and Bavaria will be the only two state until October where the AfD is currently not being represented in their respective parliaments.
The last Bavarian state election had been held one week before the 2013 federal election. For strategic reasons, the AfD didn't want to seek ballot status.
In Hesse, on the other hand, where the last federal election took place on the same day as the federal election, the AfD failed to pass the 5% threshold. Hesse is therefore the only state where the AfD unsuccessfully competed for entering parliament.
From fall 2019 on it is possible that the AfD will be the only party that is represented in every state parliament.

Well, the CDU would be represented in Bavaria, so it's hardly a point. Also, I doubt the SPD will fall under 5%. If so, it would be extremely concerning.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are two facts about the AfD:
Hesse and Bavaria will be the only two state until October where the AfD is currently not being represented in their respective parliaments.
The last Bavarian state election had been held one week before the 2013 federal election. For strategic reasons, the AfD didn't want to seek ballot status.
In Hesse, on the other hand, where the last federal election took place on the same day as the federal election, the AfD failed to pass the 5% threshold. Hesse is therefore the only state where the AfD unsuccessfully competed for entering parliament.
From fall 2019 on it is possible that the AfD will be the only party that is represented in every state parliament.

Well, the CDU would be represented in Bavaria.

If Seehofer and Söder read this, they would give you some Watschn...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%

In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

While it could happen that AfD and Linke get a majority next fall, it's completely unrealistic that "Die Blauen" will make it into the parliament. I don't even see them getting close to 1%. Frauke Petry is completely irrelevant. When Bernd Lucke left the party, the AfD crashed in the polls. After Petry left it, the AfD gained a few percent. And even Lucke's Party never came close to getting 1% in any election.
I don't get why the SPD wouldn't get above 5%. They're above 10% in every single poll but one - and that was an INSA poll. And don't forget that the Saxony CDU is the most conservative CDU state party in all of Germany. They have more in common with the CSU than with Günther, Laschet or even Merkel. I guess they'd rather have a minority government supported by the AfD than a coalition with Die Linke, because the latter would be pure suicide.

I'm not suggesting that Die Blauen are likely to meet the threshold, but I think the comparison between Lucke and Petry is a bit lame. Do you know lucke's home state? I'll give you a hint: It's the state with the AfD's third-worst result. Plus, Lucke's ALFA LKR is just a superfluous copy of the FDP, just without the pro-euro fetish; his party even supports migration and the EU membership.
Petry, on the other hand, lives in a very conservative state with a significant number of right-wing movements. She has a significantly higher chance of entering the parliament, especially after the riots in Chemnitz that could scare some AfD sympathizers away.

[Beezer]

If anything I think Chemnitz will help the AfD in Saxony. Lucke at least initially had a fighting chance as the AfD was far from politically established in the summer of 2015, so back then he could conceivably argue that he was well-positioned to take the AfD's place. Let's not forget he took quite a few parliamentarians with him. Of course the split ultimately occurred at the worst possible time for Lucke as the migrant crisis kicked into high gear a month later.

By the 2018 Saxon state election, the AfD will be in all state parliaments and could possibly come in 2nd in the European elections. There is no way AfD-leaning voters will want to waste their opportunity to send a message by supporting a party that has a rather slim chance of entering parliament.

[Ethelberth]

I think that the Intoxicated Party will reach seats in EP elections.