German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There are many voter associations running in municipal elections. Most of them are similar to the Freie Wähler. They're not so much about ideology, but more about the people running on their lists. Especially in rural areas people vote for candidates they know, not necessarily candidates they agree with on the issues and the voter associations help candidates who aren't politicians but want to run for local office.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kommunalwahlen_in_Bayern_2014
According to Wikipedia voter associations got 15.3% of the vote in the Bavarian municipal elections 2014, which seems pretty high to me, especially since Freie Wähler only got 3.9%. Maybe some Freie Wähler-lists ran as voter associations and not as the Freie Wähler party, idk.

I read the Wikipedia article about the Free Voters and it's quite complicated.
If I understood it correctly, Freie Wähler is a party, but there is also a federal umbrella association called Bundesverband Freie Wähler Deutschland, in which several voters' associations from throughout Germany are organized. Hubert Aiwanger is the chairman of both organizations in personal union. They arranged among one another that the voters' associations run at the community level and the party at state, federal and European level.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yeah, the election system is a bit of a mess. We also have elections for the Bezirkstag today, the seven parliaments of the Bavarian regions and I have no clue what they're good for (FDP wants to abolish them) and how to vote in that election.

That almost sounds like an average American election day.

[republicanbayer]

There are many voter associations running in municipal elections. Most of them are similar to the Freie Wähler. They're not so much about ideology, but more about the people running on their lists. Especially in rural areas people vote for candidates they know, not necessarily candidates they agree with on the issues and the voter associations help candidates who aren't politicians but want to run for local office.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kommunalwahlen_in_Bayern_2014
According to Wikipedia voter associations got 15.3% of the vote in the Bavarian municipal elections 2014, which seems pretty high to me, especially since Freie Wähler only got 3.9%. Maybe some Freie Wähler-lists ran as voter associations and not as the Freie Wähler party, idk.

I read the Wikipedia article about the Free Voters and it's quite complicated.
If I understood it correctly, Freie Wähler is a party, but there is also a federal umbrella association called Bundesverband Freie Wähler Deutschland, in which several voters' associations from throughout Germany are organized. Hubert Aiwanger is the chairman of both organizations in personal union. They arranged among one another that the voters' associations run at the community level and the party at state, federal and European level.

That makes sense.

[palandio]

Yes, it is highly debateable which voter associations on the county/city level can be counted as Free Voters. Even other parties run under labels like "Green open list", "CSU and free voter association", "SPD and independents", etc. and I'm not sure which of these are counted as voter associations and which not.

[TheSaint250]

CSU: 34.5%
Grüne: 18.0%
SPD: 12.5%
AfD: 11.5%
FW: 10.0%
FDP: 5.5%
_____________________

Linke: 4.0%

[RedPrometheus]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

[Aurelio21]

 @The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

[RedPrometheus]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.

[TheSaint250]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

No sorry just my (likely wrong) prediction

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?

[RedPrometheus]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?
[/quote]

It's apparently bad. But I expected that

[TheSaint250]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?

It's apparently bad. But I expected that
[/quote]

Lol Is it, like, behind AfD bad or behind FW bad?

[Aurelio21]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

I think The Saint has posted an educated guess / average of pre-election Polling. The exit poll data collection will not be finished before 4:30 pm local (CET) time // 9:30 am Atlas Server time.
I can tell since I was last year witnessing the Polling as a voluntary poll worker.

The interviewer (InfratestDimap, the instituted hired by the ARD - public broadcaster ) explained he had to call the data collection Center at specific times (12 pm, 4:30 pm local (CET) time) and report turnout, registered voters and preliminary votes at 12 pm and full results at 4:30 pm (includes age, social status, sex and voting patterns of the last elections).

[RedPrometheus]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

I think The Saint has posted an educated guess / average of pre-election Polling. The exit poll data collection will not be finished before 4:30 pm local (CET) time // 9:30 am Atlas Server time.
I can tell since I was last year witnessing the Polling as a voluntary poll worker.

The interviewer (InfratestDimap, the instituted hired by the ARD - public broadcaster ) explained he had to call the data collection Center at specific times (12 pm, 4:30 pm local (CET) time) and report turnout, registered voters and preliminary votes at 12 pm and full results at 4:30 pm (includes age, social status, sex and voting patterns of the last elections).

The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

I think The Saint has posted an educated guess / average of pre-election Polling. The exit poll data collection will not be finished before 4:30 pm local (CET) time // 9:30 am Atlas Server time.
I can tell since I was last year witnessing the Polling as a voluntary poll worker.

The interviewer (InfratestDimap, the instituted hired by the ARD - public broadcaster ) explained he had to call the data collection Center at specific times (12 pm, 4:30 pm local (CET) time) and report turnout, registered voters and preliminary votes at 12 pm and full results at 4:30 pm (includes age, social status, sex and voting patterns of the last elections).

Yeah it was just a prediction sorry for all the confusion

[President Johnson]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?

It's apparently bad. But I expected that

Lol Is it, like, behind AfD bad or behind FW bad?
[/quote]

Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

[DavidB.]

Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

Almost as if entering that grand coalition was a bad idea. Who would've thunk.

[Aurelio21]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.

Do you really think this?
A) None of the pollsters expicitly ask for them
B) According to pollsters, "Other" parties obtain 5-6 %Points
C) These numbers of the "others" factored(according to the experience" to the real result are about 8 %
D) For a proud bavarian patriot, the CSU disqualified themselves completely despite Mr Seehofers attempts of appeasing them
E) There is no real alternative as the so-called pseudo "Alternative for Germany" does not Appeal to bavarian patriots, neither the "Freie Waehler" who are already displayed they are anyting else but a CSU Version 2.5

[Aurelio21]

The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.

That's right which does not contradict my post. This preliminary prognosis is made of the data collected at 12 pm. Yet these numbers usually are skewed towards the CSU since these are the voters which have just left the catholic mass with a priest not shy of eluding what chaos(the magical word) will come above all those sinners who even think of voting for another Party then the CSU :-)

[RedPrometheus]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.

Do you really think this?
A) None of the pollsters expicitly ask for them
B) According to pollsters, "Other" parties obtain 5-6 %Points
C) These numbers of the "others" factored(according to the experience" to the real result are about 8 %
D) For a proud bavarian patriot, the CSU disqualified themselves completely despite Mr Seehofers attempts of appeasing them
E) There is no real alternative as the so-called pseudo "Alternative for Germany" does not Appeal to bavarian patriots, neither the "Freie Waehler" who are already displayed they are anyting else but a CSU Version 2.5

A) I'm not sure about the methodology so I can't answer that
B) But that's also other parties
C) I'm not sure where you get that from
D) That might be true
E) That also might be true

But nevertheless: I have no indication that the Bayernpartei will be over the threshold. But if you're right I will always read what you have to write about Bavarian politics

[RedPrometheus]

The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.

That's right which does not contradict post. This preliminary prognosis is made of the data collected at 12 pm. Yet these numbers usually are skewed towards the CSU as These are the voters which have just left the catholic mass with a priest not shy of eluding what chaos(the magical word) will come above all those sinners who even think of voting for another Party then the CSU :-)

That's true of course but I hope that the pollsters accord for that factor But what I see so far doesn't really show that.

[President Johnson]

Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

Almost as if entering that grand coalition was a bad idea. Who would've thunk.

I was among the third of the SPD members who voted against. Don't blame me.

I voted in favor in 2013, though.

[RedPrometheus]

Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

Almost as if entering that grand coalition was a bad idea. Who would've thunk.

I was among the third of the SPD members who voted against. Don't blame me.

I voted in favor in 2013, though.

I voted against it both times

[America Needs R'hllor]

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

[Aurelio21]

@ RedPrometheus:
I do not know this exactly. This is just extrapolating former results, and reading articles from various Sources outside of mainstram media. Not "Breitbart" or Alt-right Sources. Rather local media e g the city magazine of the city of Augsburg, which is not exactly the metatron of Bjoern Hoecke.
In this Magazine, the Bavarian Party(BP) has the second-to-third-most followers on Twitter and Facebook from Bavaria after the CSU. And many young bavarians only affiliate with them out of fear of losing their jobs in public Service and enterprises dependend on the good will of the local CSU godfather.

A) I have compared the averages of exit polls and final results in Bavaria, the ratio is about 1.3 pre-election poll to election result
B) I am aware, yet the turnout in the cities appears to be rising according to several official Sources

The BP above 5 % is quite bold/hyperbole. The higher turnout might just benefit the Greens and the AfD. But definitely not CSU. SPD, FDP and likely FW will suffer as well.

Ultimately, the BP will not prevail, but getting 3-4 % should be realistic. As of now (5:09 pm) the turnout in the cities is to high and rather indicates an good "Greens" and "AfD" result.

[DavidB.]

Any reports on turnout?