German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

First turnout reports are pretty good so far and - like in Bavaria - are pointing to 70% or more:

http://www.fr.de/rhein-main/hessenwahl/newsticker-landtagswahl-hessen-hohe-wahlbeteiligung-deutet-sich-an-a-1559125

[palandio]

My bold prediction: RRG/GRR will not have a majority. I'm not exactly sure about who out of CDU, FDP and AfD will overperform, if I had to guess I would say FDP.

[Tender Branson]

The SPD candidate has voted in a kitchen it seems:



Who knew that you can have an election precinct in a kitchen ...

[palandio]

My prediction for Hesse:

CDU: 27.2%
SPD: 20.0%
Greens: 19.3%
AfD: 12.3%
FDP: 9.2%
Left: 7.5%
FW: 2.5%
Others: 2.0%

[Tender Branson]

Hessen turnout updates:

* Frankfurt (14:00) was at 31% vs. 40% in 2013. A significant drop.

* Some parts of eastern Hessen had slightly higher turnout until noon.

I expect final turnout for the state to be between the 61% of 2009 and 73% of 2013 (when the state election was held together with the federal election).

But probably more on the lower end: ~65%.

[RedPrometheus]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

[Tender Branson]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

How can you get the exit poll ?

[RedPrometheus]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

How can you get the exit poll ?

Once you reach a certain level of being a party functionary you can organise that you‘ll receive it.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

[Tender Branson]

A 2pm turnout update from the state does not show the significant collapse I reported earlier:

2018: 38.8%
2013: 40.9%
2009: 29.7%

Maybe turnout is just down a lot in Frankfurt, but stable or up elsewhere ...

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-hessen/liveblog-zur-landtagswahl-in-hessen-15853985.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

Out of joy orout of Frustsaufen? ;-)

[Tender Branson]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

Out of joy orout of Frustsaufen? ;-)

Als SPDler wirds wohl eher aus Frust sein ...

[RedPrometheus]

I finally got the exit poll and let’s just say I‘ll start drinking now.

Out of joy orout of Frustsaufen? ;-)

Als SPDler wirds wohl eher aus Frust sein ...

True but perhaps it was premature.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Or we have Easter. :-)

[Oryxslayer]

If your drinking out of sadness, then its because SPD are under-preforming, probably with Greens over-preforming. If its joy, then SPD and Greens are over-preforming, to the detriment of the Union.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Maybe turnout is just down a lot in Frankfurt, but stable or up elsewhere ...

My interpretation would be, that the numbers on the city of Frankfurt website are without postal voting. It wouldn't make sense giving the parallel trends to the Bavarian state elections, if turnout in Frankfurt is down, of all places.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe turnout is just down a lot in Frankfurt, but stable or up elsewhere ...

My interpretation would be, that the numbers on the city of Frankfurt website are without postal voting. It wouldn't make sense giving the parallel trends to the Bavarian state elections, if turnout in Frankfurt is down, of all places.

Yeah, it's odd ...

You say that the 2013 Frankfurt numbers include the postal ballots in the chart, but the 2018 numbers do not ?

https://wahlen.frankfurt.de/twb/twb.html

Which would make sense.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This is the district forecast commissioned by the Hessian Broadcasting:



(Blue means tossup, not AfD!)

Here's the link to the interactive map.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I would interpet Tageswahlbeteiligung as on-day voting. And the sample is only 9 precincts, which in the end could be very unrepresentative. We will see,

https://wahlen.frankfurt.de/twb/twb.html

[Oryxslayer]

This is the district forecast commissioned by the Hessian Broadcasting:



(Blue means tossup, not AfD!)

Here's the link to the interactive map.

It changed since you took that picture...are they editing the projection based on turnout?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It changed since you took that picture...are they editing the projection based on turnout?

Oh, you're indeed right. Well spotted!
They really seem to be making live updates. Good to know.

[RedPrometheus]

It will be an exciting election night for sure.

[TheSaint250]

What time do the polls close?

It will be an exciting election night for sure.

Any additional clues?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What time do the polls close?

In half an hour.

[Michael19754]

Exit poll: CDU 28, SPD 20, Grüne 19,5, AfD 12, FDP 7,5, Linke 6,5 (Infratest dimap)