German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

The Greens could win 5/6 state election constituencies that make up the city of Frankfurt.

They are a bit further behind in district 34, where it's unlikely that they can close the gap.

But only about 10% of precincts are counted in the city ...

If that's the case, the Greens will eventually surpass the SPD in the whole state.

Not sure about that, it's probably already factored in in the Hochrechnungen.

But it's of course possible that the Greens pull ahead of the SPD at some point.

[Tender Branson]

Maps with incoming results:

https://wahlergebnisse.hessenschau.de/he_maponly.html

Problem:

The map shows incoming election results for towns, but if you click on these towns there are no results for 2018 shown ...

[Tender Branson]

Another map:

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fa1AH/4

AfD has now won a town.

[President Johnson]

A new ARD projection: CDU+Greens now without a majority (60 of 121 seats)

[Oryxslayer]

A new ARD projection: CDU+Greens now without a majority (60 of 121 seats)

Actually, this is the first ARD projection without a CDU+greens majority (60/121 = 49%). ARD had CDU+Greens or CDU+SPD majorities projected originally, because of the lower number of overhangs.

[DL]

A new ARD projection: CDU+Greens now without a majority (60 of 121 seats)

Actually, this is the first ARD projection without a CDU+greens majority (60/121 = 49%). ARD had CDU+Greens or CDU+SPD majorities projected originally, because of the lower number of overhangs.

Would that lead to a CDU/SPD coalition replacing the CDU/Green one?

[Oryxslayer]

Well, ZDF projects more overhangs - one more Green, Linke, and Union seat than ARD. So we still could hit a situation where every 'easy' government is 1-2 seats short.

[President Johnson]

A new ARD projection: CDU+Greens now without a majority (60 of 121 seats)

Actually, this is the first ARD projection without a CDU+greens majority (60/121 = 49%). ARD had CDU+Greens or CDU+SPD majorities projected originally, because of the lower number of overhangs.

Would that lead to a CDU/SPD coalition replacing the CDU/Green one?

Doubtful in my mind. This coalition has become very unpopular and would be a "coalition of the losers". I mean, both lost over 10% each. That's a very strong signal that every politican should not ignore. A one seat majority would also be very unstable under these circumstances. Jamaica is far more likely if the CDU/Greens coalition fails to regain a majority. If Jamaica talks fail, there may be a very slim chance, but I think then we may see a CDU/Greens minority cabinet. That's possible, especially if just one vote is missing.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Tarek Al-Wazir has won his Offenbach-Stadt district for the Greens.

And SPD has won the Hersfeld constituency from CDU.

[Oryxslayer]

Constituencies currently: 8/55

4 CDU
3 SPD
1 Green

[Oryxslayer]

11/55 Direct Mandates:


7 CDU
3 SPD
1 Green

[Oryxslayer]

22/55 Direct Mandates

13 CDU
7 SPD
2 Green

[Beezer]

ARD now with an expanded parliament as well

[Oryxslayer]

ARD now with an expanded parliament as well

Traffic light is actually Viable in such a parliament. It joins the obvious Grand Coalition and Jamaica as potential options.

38/55 Direct mandates:

26 CDU
9 SPD
3 Green

[Oryxslayer]

44/55 Direct Mandates:

31 Union
10 SPD
3 Green

[Oryxslayer]

51/55 Direct Mandates:

37 Union
11 SPD
3 Green

[Oryxslayer]

53/55 Direct Mandates:

37 Union
11 SPD
5 Green

Greens gained two from Frankfurt, and one more city seat is still out.

[Oryxslayer]

55/55 Direct Mandates:

39 CDU
11 SPD
5 Green

Greens win Frankfurt overall.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Second place: Greens (570,260 votes / 19.81%)
Third place: SPD (570,166 votes / 19.80%)

[Oryxslayer]

137 members means that a 69 seat government has a bare majority. This means a continuation of Black-Green is Viable, Black-Red is an option, and Traffic Light is also on the table if Greens want to have a government they lead...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Green districts are:

• Frankfurt II
• Frankfurt V
• Offenbach
• Darmstadt I
• Kassel I

Offenbach is a bit surprising. It's the Lieutenant Governor Al-Wazir's constituency, however it's the city with the highest share of migrants.
Two years ago, the AfD won the migrant cities of Mannheim and Pforzheim in the Baden-Württemberg state election due to that fact.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think 'Deputy Prime Minister' or 'Deputy Premier' would be better translations - 'Governor' has colonial overtones, which sit a little awkwardly.

[DL]

137 members means that a 69 seat government has a bare majority. This means a continuation of Black-Green is Viable, Black-Red is an option, and Traffic Light is also on the table if Greens want to have a government they lead...

Would the FDP ever agree to join a traffic light coalition led by the Greens? I think not

[Coffein00]

137 members means that a 69 seat government has a bare majority. This means a continuation of Black-Green is Viable, Black-Red is an option, and Traffic Light is also on the table if Greens want to have a government they lead...

Would the FDP ever agree to join a traffic light coalition led by the Greens? I think not

Very unlikely. They ruled out a traffic light coalition with a Green Ministerpräsident just 10 days ago.
Nevertheless they said they would talk to all parties besides AfD and Linke.
Who knows, probably if they offer them a lot.
But I do not believe they will join a traffic light coalition, especially not with the Greens as strongest party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In case anyone is interested in statistics, here are some positive and negative records of the results German parties achieved:

CDU (worst results)

1      9.0    1951    Bremen
2    14.8    1959    Bremen
3    15.9    2015    Hamburg
4    17.6    2016    Berlin
5    18.0    1955    Bremen

SPD (worst results)

1      9.7    2018    Bavaria
2      9.8    2004    Saxony
3    10.4    2009    Saxony
4    10.6    2016    Saxony-Anhalt
5    10.7    1999    Saxony

Greens (best results)

1    30.3    2016    Baden-Württemberg
2    24.2    2011    Baden-Württemberg
3    22.5    2011    Bremen
4    19.8    2018    Hesse
5    17.6    2011    Berlin
6    17.5    2018    Bavaria