German Elections & Politics

[parochial boy]

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.

AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.

Is a plurality enough to win? If so, they'd definitely hurt each other. Anyway, I could see one of them drop out and support the other. As long as Merkel stays on as Chancellor the party chairman will struggle anyways, because everything will stay the same with her and I doubt that anyone can pull the CDU out of their slump due to the GroKo.

No, there is a runoff if no one wins a majority. But unless AKK wins, GroKo will be as good as dead.

What would happen other than new elections in that case? It's not like there is another government that is even possible...

[Former President tack50]

Maybe if someone quite conservative wins the leadership election they'll try to remove Merkel as chancellor as well and try the unholy CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD coalition?

[pilskonzept]

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.

AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.

Is a plurality enough to win? If so, they'd definitely hurt each other. Anyway, I could see one of them drop out and support the other. As long as Merkel stays on as Chancellor the party chairman will struggle anyways, because everything will stay the same with her and I doubt that anyone can pull the CDU out of their slump due to the GroKo.

No, there is a runoff if no one wins a majority. But unless AKK wins, GroKo will be as good as dead.

What would happen other than new elections in that case? It's not like there is another government that is even possible...

Jamaica would be possible, but certainly the Greens - and perhaps the Merkel-less CDU, too - would be better off with new elections.

[pilskonzept]

Maybe if someone quite conservative wins the leadership election they'll try to remove Merkel as chancellor as well

You bet.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No way. Even CDU/CSU-FDP minority with outside support from AfD would be a stretch.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Several party members argue in support of running a primary ("Urabstimmung") - and the CDU really ought to do that, both for the party leadership and the chancellor candidacy.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Merz officially in!

[mvd10]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

I'm sorry my sweet Jens Spahn, nothing lasts forever. Merz is waifu now .

He only needs to drop conscription and Merz truly is .

[DavidB.]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Totally supporting AKK then.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

I think they're both equally supportive of the EU.

[DavidB.]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

I think they're both equally supportive of the EU.

Not what I mean. Who is more likely to oppose mass immigration as much as possible?

[pilskonzept]

What are political views of Friedrich Merz? I more or less know Spahn or AKK but I am clueless about third participant in that leadership race.

Extremely conservative. Extremely neoliberal. Very US-orientated. Ardent supporter of the Iraq War and the conscription. Belonged to the 5% of Germans who supported McCain. Pronounced opponent of gay marriage, pro-choice rights and the minimum wage.
His most famous project was the "beer coaster tax system"; that means that he wanted the citizens to be able to make their tax declarations "on a beer coaster".

Merkel and Merz deeply despise each other.

Who is more likely to take a firm stance and protect Fortress Europe, Spahn or Merz?

I think they're both equally supportive of the EU.

Not what I mean. Who is more likely to oppose mass immigration as much as possible?

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Not what I mean. Who is more likely to oppose mass immigration as much as possible?

I think Spahn is a tad more skeptical towards mass immigration, not least because of his sexual orientation. Merz, on the other hand, is an economic lobbyist who works closely with and for marketing boards, which have been pressing for mass immigration for years.
Merz even rejected the Ludwig Erhard Prize this year, which honors free-market friendly activists, because he didn't want to share the stage with controversial, AfD-friendly publicist Roland Tichy.

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

I couldn't have explained it more accurately.

[Oryxslayer]

Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

[rob in cal]

   If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

Yes, They would have handled it like Sebastian Kurz and haven't opened the borders.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

[Oryxslayer]

Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

Yes but you haven't refuted my argument: the CDU/CSU prefers a 2.5 party government over a a 3.5 party or or one where they are out of power, the two option available in new elections are called. The SPD wants access to power and a greater share of the parliamentary seats, both things that go away with new elections. Basically what I am saying is that while the Grand Coalition is not working to the best of its ability, its the best of all possible options on the table.

[republicanbayer]

Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

Yes but you haven't refuted my argument: the CDU/CSU prefers a 2.5 party government over a a 3.5 party or or one where they are out of power, the two option available in new elections are called. The SPD wants access to power and a greater share of the parliamentary seats, both things that go away with new elections. Basically what I am saying is that while the Grand Coalition is not working to the best of its ability, its the best of all possible options on the table.

SPD thinks that a more leftist platform is an answer to their problems while CDU will probably move to the right with a new party leader. Both parties would lose even more credibility and voters if they don't terminate the Grand Coalition at some point. I think they'd take mediocre losses and a fresh start in 2019 over a total disaster in 2021.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Honest question here, but why do people think the Grand Coalition is dead? Even if someone less Europhile then Merkel takes the reigns of leadership, its in the SPD's best interest to avoid new elections and the subsequent electoral wipe-out. Jamaica won't bail the Union out of a hole, especially if its the greens who stand to gain from new elections.

Because all three parties have crashed in the polls and in the last two state elections, especially the SPD, which is likely to never recover again; The encore soi-disant "grand coailition" would even get a majority if the federal election were held today, and the AfD has finally entered all 16 state parliaments.
All three parties have been in fierce dispute with each other since the beginning of the tenure half a year ago.

Yes but you haven't refuted my argument: the CDU/CSU prefers a 2.5 party government over a a 3.5 party or or one where they are out of power, the two option available in new elections are called. The SPD wants access to power and a greater share of the parliamentary seats, both things that go away with new elections. Basically what I am saying is that while the Grand Coalition is not working to the best of its ability, its the best of all possible options on the table.

Well, I think all three parties know - to quote a famous SPD politician - that it's better have an ending with dread than dread without an ending. Moreover, the Greens and the FDP in one government are very hard to handle; no such coalition has lasted a whole tenure at the state level.
Furthermore; i doubt that the SPD really wants access to power.

[DavidB.]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

[republicanbayer]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

[DavidB.]

Spahn is more likely to select immigrants based on cultural closeness.

Merz is more likely to select immigrants based on economic usefulness.

Take your pick.

Very clear, thanks - Spahn it is.

The difference between these two is so small that it doesn't matter. What matters is winning an election. I'm not sure if anyone can take the CDU back to 40%, but Spahn most certainly can't.

What matters is carrying out sound policies. Parties are instruments for that. Merkel won 41% or even more and subsequently opened the borders to the entire Middle East. I rather have a CDU at 33% with a solid right-winger. What's more, I am not at all convinced that a moderate like AKK would have more electoral success than Spahn. Someone like AKK would lose a lot of voters to AfD definitively. Real right-wingers would continue to vote for a wholly uncoalitionable party like AfD and the government continues to consist of a combination of fake right-wingers and left-wingers, which is the problem both Germany and the Netherlands experience right now. The CDU essentially has to choose between making Merkel's move to the center permanent or moving to the right again.