German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

ZDF exit poll:







Turnout: 68%

[Tender Branson]

The exit poll results are very close to my prediction.

I'd like to see the CDU gain another point though in the actual count and the AfD to drop by a point and the Greens to stay ahead of the SPD and I'd be really happy with my prediction.

Also: the AfD is now represented in all 16 state parliaments.

[Tender Branson]

First ZDF projection based on some already-counted precincts:

[Tender Branson]

And the same for the ARD:

[Tender Branson]

Official results can be found here:

https://statistik-hessen.de/l_2018/html/neuste-ergebnisse

It's the list with the incoming constituencies.

[Tender Branson]

One thing is for sure after today:

If the CDU remains stuck at 27% and a renewed coalition with the Greens (20%) or SPD (20%) is not possible any longer, the voices within the party to get rid of Merkel will grow really loud over the next months ...

This result today is not something that she can "sit out" or ignore any longer, like she did with the migrant crimes.

[Tender Branson]

I just watched the Berliner Runde roundtable and the AfD-frontrunner there was a real Ungustl (or Unsympathler in High-German), as we would call such a nasty, unlikeable person in Austria.

From the looks, a Bolsonaro-clone, and he sounded like a Nazi straight out of WW2:

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[Tender Branson]

The Greens could win 5/6 state election constituencies that make up the city of Frankfurt.

They are a bit further behind in district 34, where it's unlikely that they can close the gap.

But only about 10% of precincts are counted in the city ...

[Tender Branson]

The Greens could win 5/6 state election constituencies that make up the city of Frankfurt.

They are a bit further behind in district 34, where it's unlikely that they can close the gap.

But only about 10% of precincts are counted in the city ...

If that's the case, the Greens will eventually surpass the SPD in the whole state.

Not sure about that, it's probably already factored in in the Hochrechnungen.

But it's of course possible that the Greens pull ahead of the SPD at some point.

[Tender Branson]

Maps with incoming results:

https://wahlergebnisse.hessenschau.de/he_maponly.html

Problem:

The map shows incoming election results for towns, but if you click on these towns there are no results for 2018 shown ...

[Tender Branson]

Another map:

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fa1AH/4

AfD has now won a town.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that the Greens ended up 94 votes ahead of the SPD out of 2.5 million votes cast.

Good for my prediction, because you guys all predicted the SPD to finish ahead of them.

[Tender Branson]

Still, palandido's prediction was the best using the errors for all parties ...

[Tender Branson]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

[Tender Branson]

I prefer AKK to take over the CDU, because she's really likeable IMO.

Spahn and Merz seem too conservative and too radical on certain issues for my taste.

I agree with you. But let's be real: Merz will succeed Mutti.
I read that there are three minor, obscure candidates that wanted to challenge Merkel even before her announcement, but I can't find out who the are. Do you know more?

Why would or should I want to know more about 3 obscure candidates ?

It's not like they are getting more than 0.1% of the delegates ...