German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

A state which elects the NPD to the state parliament for a third time in a row - and Saxony would be the first German state where this happens - must be pretty horrible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Experience has taught me that when you have a social-liberal party and a vaguely more leftist party competing somewhat closely for a rank, the social-liberal party nearly always end up ahead of the vaguely more leftist party. Not always, I grant you, but nearly always.

That didn't happen in the 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009 Saxony state elections though. In fact, the exact opposite of what you just described occurred.

Final 2009 poll: SPD 14%, Left 20%
Actual 2009 result: SPD 10.4%, Left 20.6%

Final 2004 poll: SPD 14%, PDS 19%
Actual 2004 result: SPD 9.8%, PDS 23.6%

Final 1999 poll: SPD 16%, PDS 18%
Actual 1999 result: SPD 10.7%, PDS 22.2%

Final 1994 poll: SPD 23%, PDS 16%
Actual 1994 poll: SPD 16.6%, PDS 16.5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Men voted:



Women voted:

Men are obviously stupid.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What was DSU?

Basically the CSU's short-lived attempt to expand to East Germany back in 1989/1990 (DSU stands for German Social Union instead of Christian Social Union).

However, the experiment was soon abandoned at the CDU's request, because they didn't want to face a conservative competition outside of Bavaria.

After the DSU was left to survive on its own, it was quickly reduced to the status of a minor splinter party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

I think it's more of a problem that the Left is anti-Treaty of Lisbon, anti-NATO, anti-sanctions against Russia, anti-German troops in Afghanistan, and anti-couple of other things in foreign policy which are generally supported by SPD/Greens.

As soon as you form a SPD-Green-Left coalition government and something in the world happens which requires a decision by the German government, said government will probably fall apart and be replaced by a Grand coalition again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

All of thoise issues are about foreign policy...what is the obstacle to SPD-Linke coalition at the state level?

Not that much of an obstacle. There is currently one in Brandenburg, there have been such coalitions in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin (and de facto in Saxony-Anhalt too).

Saxony and Thuringia are a bit of different case, because the SPD is usually weaker than the Left there and that means they would have to concede the office of the minister-president to the Left Party. Which means the SPD would have to officially recognize that they are not the major left-wing party in those states.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian.

While you could say that the CDU has become "less Christian", it certainly isn't more free-market now. The bottomline is, the CDU is not the reason for the FDP's decline. The FDP itself is.

Under Guido Westerwelle, the FDP dropped almost any of its platform planks except for tax cuts, effectively turning it into a populist anti-tax party. And then they became part of the federal governent and no tax cuts occured. Which rendered the party's existence redunant in they eyes of its voters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to some journalists, "Berlin" (i.e. federal politicans) expects a PM Ramelow. If NPD does not and GREENS do come into parliament (probable), a (thin) left majority were given.

Yes, that's also the reason why the federal CDU has started a "omg, we must prevent a communist minister-president for Thuringia, you must vote CDU!" campaign.

Btw, if I'm not mistaken, this could be then the first time in the history of the Federal Republic that we have two non-CDU/CSU/SPD minister-presidents at the same time (Kretschmann from the Greens in BW, and Ramelow in Thuringia).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Voting underway in Brandenburg and Thüringen.

The next PM of Thüringen ?

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party, with the fitting Commie-trenchcoat)

Owl pictures!!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Question here; how are the CDU going to deal with the AfD? Its just that now they've been robbed of their usual 'right-wing' coalition partners, the only options that they have left are Grand and Black-Green coalitions. To my mind, this presents a potential problem, as these coalitions (I'd expect), are more likely to be geared towards the political centre (as with Merkel's current Grand Coalition), thus meaning that this might alienate the more right-wing CDU voters, who could be tempted to flirt with the AfD (weakening the overall CDU vote). Will the CDU come to some sort of accommodation with the AfD in the future (which might assuage any concerns that parts of their base might have), or will it continue to block their entry into government? I could be totally and utterly wrong here, but from what I can see, a problem seems to be emerging .

I guess we could see something similar to the development of the SPD-PDS relations during the 90s. At first, any cooperation between SPD and PDS was categorically ruled out. Then, some local SPD politicians started to break that taboo on the state-level, first in Saxony-Anhalt in 1994 when a SPD minority government had the backing of the PDS in the state parliament, then with the first official SPD-PDS coalition in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 1998. A similar pattern could develop with CDU and AfD on the state level.

Assuming that the AfD doesn't start to fall apart at some point (which is still a scenario which could very well happen), we could have some CDU politician who badly wants to remain/become minister-president saying "screw it, let's work with the AfD" maybe four years down the road or so.

But we would still be a loooong time away from any CDU-AfD cooperation on the federal level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For the record, the FDP is now reduced to representation in six out of 16 state parliaments. That's still two more state parliaments than the Pirate Party. Yay!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

They were still represented in the Bundestag at that time though. And like Beezer said, they didn't have a competitor like the AfD.

One shouldn't underestimate the severe effects of being ousted from the Bundestag. Among other things, it means that for all intents and purposes they're almost financially bankrupt. I think there was once a news report that they had to fire half of their staff in their national headquarters following the 2013 Bundestag election or something like that.

No votes means no money and no money means no personnel and no ressources. It already showed in this years' European election when they had very cheap and basic looking campaign posters (and relatively few of them compared to other parties as well). And for each state election they're defeated in, they will get even less money from the state in the future.

The PDS/Left managed to make a comeback after being ousted from the Bundestag in 2002, but it was a different situation. They literally received a transfusion of fresh blood in form of the WASG and Oskar Lafontaine and they still had a pretty strong base in the east (including state governments they formed with the SPD) even without Bundestag representation.

The Greens also managed to make a comeback following their ouster in 1990. However, their defeat back then wasn't really the result of a general downward trend. That year they had made the idiotic decision of campaigning against unification of Germany when everybody wanted exactly like that. I guess the historic unfication of a country (and all effects for a poltical party it may bear) counts as a very special circumstance in itself. I mean some even say that unification is what Helmut Kohl got re-elected in 1990 in the first place. And technically the Greens weren't even fully ousted from Bundestag, since at least the East German Greens made it to parliament that year through a special clause in the electoral law.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.

But if the other parties continue to refuse to form coalitions with them and essentially ignore them, what role would they have to play? At least until the next parliamentary election?

That of an opposition party?

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?

Isn't the raisin d'être of a political party to be in government and have an impact on public policy?

Not always. Especially when the party in question is still young. If they're electorally successful, they'll eventually end up seeking participation in government at one point though.

In Germany, both the Greens and the PDS/Left had long, internal debates on whether they should join governments. For the whole duration of the 1980, the Green Party was split between a "yes" (the Realos) and a "no" (the Fundis) camp. A conflict which wasn't fully resolved until the early 90s, when the Realo position finally became accepted as the mainstream position within the party and the Fundis started to get replaced by the so-called "Regierungslinke" (Governmental Left).

The PDS/Left went through a similar development, and in this case it isn't even fully resolved to this day with regards to the federal level and also some of the Western states.

A motivation for holding such a position is that the respective party questions the existing party system and considers itself as an alternative to the system at large. If this is the case, there's always a natural resistance against becoming a part of the very system they criticize.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP keeps a campaign promise for a change :

[Middle-aged Europe]

Let's not forget that Hamburg gave Richter Gnadenlos almost 20 percent of the vote not too long ago.

That was 12 days after a couple of former Hamburg residents crashed two planes into the World Trade Center though.

I'm not saying that the AfD won't make it to the state parliament there. But I don't see how Schill's election result from 2001 is any useful indicator here. Their chances are as good there as in any other West German state.

(If anything Ronald Schill's recent tenure in the Big Brother house should be reminder for any Hamburgian voter, not to support right-wing populists again. )

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there any word on whether the Thuringia government will be CDU-SPD or Linke-SPD-Grune yet?

No.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.

If you mean the Alternative, analysis of the recent Bundestag, European, and state elections have shown that the AfD significantly drains votes from the CDU. Former CDU voters usually constitute either the largest or the second-largest group of AfD supporters in all these elections.

At the same time, the CDU has also made gains from other parties though. Primarily from the FDP, in fact. So, we're witnessing a bit of a realignment.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In the 2013 Bundestag election, the AfD had received most of their votes from: FDP, Left, CDU (in that order)

2014 European
1) CDU
2) SPD
3) Left

2014 Saxony
1) Other parties (NPD not included)
2) CDU
3) FDP

2014 Brandenburg
1) Left
2) CDU
3) FDP

2014 Thuringia
1) CDU
2) Left
3) Non-voters/SPD (tie)

Usually, the AfD seems to gain most of their votes from the CDU and the Left. Both is easily explained. They win right-wing conservatives from the CDU who think that their party has moved too far to the center, in addition to anti-establishment (and anti-EU) protest voters who jump on the newest populist bandwaggon.

They had a particularly strong showing with FDP voters in the 2013 Bundestag election, but this correlation became less important since then. Former FDP supporters still make up their third-most important source of votes overall. Motivations are probably similar to that of former CDU voters who crossed over to the AfD camp (aside from the fact that a vote for the FDP has largely become a "wasted" vote).

The fourth most supportive group are SPD voters, which seems a bit puzzling at first look, but you have to keep in mind that there's also a certain right-wing element existent within the SPD and among its supporters (Thilo Sarrazin, anyone?). The AfD's particularly strong showing among SPD voters in the European Parliament election is perhaps also an indication that SPD voters are less supportive of the European Union than the party itself.

Greens usually hate the AfD, and the feeling is mutually returned.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Last thing I heard from Thuringia was that SPD and Greens had demanded from the Left that all three parties sign a document in which the former East German regime is declared a dictatorship as a pre-condition for forming a governing coalition in this state.

The Left's leadership is generally okay with this, but it seemed to spark a bit of a revolt at the Left's base. Which forced the party leadership to relativize the meaning of the document to calm things down. Which in turn caused the Greens to threaten the end of the coalition talks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems a bit bizarre that the parties started to argue over the finer points of history in the coalition talks.

Then again, it was always a potential source of friction between the Left and the Greens, given that the East German Greens trace their roots back to the GDR opposition movement more than any other political party in the former East Germany.

For all intents and purposes, they were once enemies.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And is Left-SPD-AfD coalition viable?

This is in fact the least likely coalition model, by far.

It's relatively safe to say that such a coalition is never going to happen, even if the AfD continues to establish itself successfully and remains a relevant political force for the next decades.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Right. But AfD offered Ramelow to elect him PM (what he refused, of course).

The AfD was trolling.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A Left/SPD/Green coalition in Thuringia headed by Bodo Ramelow (Left) seems increasingly likely.