German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Time for my predictions then:

Brandenburg

31.7% SPD
23.6% CDU
19.7% Left
10.5% AfD
  5.3% Greens
  2.5% FDP
  2.4% NPD
  1.5% FW
  1.3% Pirates
  1.5% Others

Turnout: 58%

Thüringen

34.3% CDU
25.6% Left
15.2% SPD
  9.1% AfD
  5.2% Greens
  4.1% NPD
  2.4% FDP
  1.8% FW
  1.4% Pirates
  0.9% Others

Turnout: 56%

[Tender Branson]

Voting underway in Brandenburg and Thüringen.

The next PM of Thüringen ?

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party, with the fitting Commie-trenchcoat)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Thüringen until 12:00 was 20% (30% with postal ballots).

That is about the same as 5 years ago.

Final turnout then was 56%.

[Tender Branson]

According to some journalists, "Berlin" (i.e. federal politicans) expects a PM Ramelow. If NPD does not and GREENS do come into parliament (probable), a (thin) left majority were given.

Yes, that's also the reason why the federal CDU has started a "omg, we must prevent a communist minister-president for Thuringia, you must vote CDU!" campaign.

If their campaign works, I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong CDU-showing today ...

[Tender Branson]

14:00 turnout:

Brandenburg: 22.4% (2009: 36.3%, held together with the federal elections)

Thüringen: 30.0% (2009: 34.5%)

...

The drop-off in Brandenburg is disgusting, they are heading for 50-55% turnout.

[Tender Branson]

16:00 turnout numbers point to a final turnout of 55-60% in Thüringen (roughly unchanged compared with 2009) and ca. 50-55% in Brandenburg (a decline of 12-17% compared with 2009).

[Tender Branson]

ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

[Tender Branson]

ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.

No problem ...

Btw: What are you doing in Poland ?

[Tender Branson]

ZDF is showing some stuff from the Thüringen exit poll and in this, both the CDU-Gov. and the Left-leader aren't doing all too hot.

More voters prefer a CDU/SPD coalition than a left-wing Left/SPD/Green one (which is actually opposed by a majority of voters).

[Tender Branson]

1st projections:

Brandenburg (ARD)



Brandenburg (ZDF)



Thüringen (ARD)



Thüringen (ZDF)

[Tender Branson]

CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.

CDU/SPD/Greens is an option then.

[Tender Branson]

AfD continues to overpoll on election day.

Polls said 9% in BB, they got 12%.

Poll said 8% in TH, they got 10%.

[Tender Branson]

According to the 1st ZDF-Hochrechnung, both CDU/SPD and Left/SPD/Greens now have a 1-seat majority in Thüringen (45/88 seats).

[Tender Branson]

Gains/Losses relative to 2009 (ARD):





Seats (ARD):

44-44 tie between CDU/AfD and Left/SPD/Greens.

[Tender Branson]

For the record, the FDP is now reduced to representation in six out of 16 state parliaments. That's still two more state parliaments than the Pirate Party. Yay!

With Hamburg coming up in February, it will likely be 5 soon because they are not polling well there either.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

THÜRINGEN









...

BRANDENBURG

[Tender Branson]

When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

It's part of the ARD-exit poll:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-196.html

[Tender Branson]

When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

It's part of the ARD-exit poll:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-196.html

Another question, another answer:



That proves the silliness of polls again...

Well, this is the answer from ALL people polled, not just SPD-voters ...

[Tender Branson]

Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here.

But:

The most "recent" polls from Hamburg and Bremen are already several months/half a year old, which makes them meaningless, considering AfD's recent surge.

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

[Tender Branson]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

2% Pirates, 1-2% Freie Wähler, 1-2% NPD, 2% other small parties

[Tender Branson]

Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

More like 52-46 for the Right, according to the latest polls.

Austria is 60-40 for the Right though.

[Tender Branson]

Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

More like 52-46 for the Right, according to the latest polls.

Austria is 60-40 for the Right though.

I said "in the crudest sense" and its a matter of the left-right definition. In the polls I commented on it was true countng Linke, Greens ad SPD as Left and the rest as Right.

I guess I will land in the Irony Ore Mine if I say, "do you have to involve  Austria in everything", so I wont. .

Not in everything, but still a lot of times ...

[Tender Branson]

Last thing I heard from Thuringia was that SPD and Greens had demanded from the Left that all three parties sign a document in which the former East German regime is declared a dictatorship as a pre-condition for forming a governing coalition in this state.

The Left's leadership is generally okay with this, but it seemed to spark a bit of a revolt at the Left's base. Which forced the party leadership to relativize the meaning of the document to calm things down. Which in turn caused the Greens to threaten the end of the coalition talks.

Typical. I already thought that would happen.

The best thing would be to implement CDU-SPD again in that state, it worked in the last term (Thüringen even achieved a 400-500 Mio. € surplus last year, which is not bad for a small state like this, half of which was used for investments and half to pay down debt.)

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the Red-Red-Green coalition talks in Thüringen are almost completed.

They plan to present the coalition contract on Thursday.

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party) to be elected Governor by the new state parliament on Dec. 5