German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Try here...

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/wahlatlas/start_wahlatlas.html

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/onlineatlas/start_wahlatlas.html

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showcandres_btw13.pl?land=btw13

[Middle-aged Europe]

The results of the SPD "primary" election to determine the successor of retiring Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit have been announced:


Michael Müller, state minister for urban development - 59.1%

Jan Stöß,  SPD state chairman - 20.9%

Raed Saleh, SPD state parliament caucus leader - 18.7%

Turnout: 65% (members of the Berlin SPD were eligible)


Hence Müller will be nominated by the SPD as the next mayor in the state parliament.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The results of the SPD "primary" election to determine the successor of retiring Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit have been announced:
Michael Müller, state minister for urban development - 59.1%

Müller was - as far as I know - the most serious/boring candidate, under normal circumstances he would have had no chance, an Anti-Wowereit-vote!

While having a different persona and image, Müller is also known as a close Wowereit protége. So, it's doubtful to which extent it can be really seen as an "anti-Wowereit vote".

The anti-Wowereit candidate in this race was Jan Stöß who's a long-standing Wowereit/Müller rival and had in fact ousted Wowereit's man Müller as state party chairman two years ago in a close ballot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And here's a map of Germany for our English-speaking friends :

[Middle-aged Europe]

Chart 3 doesn't seem to make much sense with regards to Chart 1.

So both West Germans and East Germans consider Putin as a threat to Germany, but East Germans nevertheless support recognizing the annexation of Crimea, while West Germans don't. Do East Germans think that recognizing the annexation would appease Putin and hence make him less of a threat?

The pro-Russian stance of the AfD is interesting, but not entirely surprising either. I think there's usually strong correlation between between the AfD folk and the "don't believe what the mainstream media is telling us (for instance with regards to Ukraine)!" crowd. AfD voters = conspiracy theorists.

It's also fitting that SPIEGEL ONLINE was reporting today that top AfD people are planning to go to the Russian embassy in Berlin for "consultations".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where would be the NPD? Extremely to the right socially but economically? I read their platform once on internet and that was "protecting the german poors blabla".

Their stance of not giving any welfare, healthcare etc. to immigrants is pretty right-wing again though. So just like with the original Nazis, the NPD's "left-wingness" depends on whether you can prove yourself a true and proper Aryan.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0

Counter-Poland.

Actually, St. Pauli is the Kreuzberg of Hamburg.

There seems to have been a big shift from the SPD to the Left Party though. In 2011, the SPD won 37% and the Left 20% there.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A lot of speculation in the media whether Olaf Scholz could become the SPD's next Chancellor-candidate. Of course, I remember the same debate happening exactly four years ago. And at the same time, there are also editotirals discussing how someone as bland as Olaf Scholz can achieve such overwhelming election victories.

Well, it's Hamburg, stupid. And at least Scholz isn't known to be completely incompetent.

But to speculate whether he could become Chancellor-candidate is almost like discussing whether the Bavarian minister-president is a shoe-in as CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate, only because he happens to win by such huge margins in his state.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On the other hand, noone knows what Angela Merkel's CDU stands for and they are very successful at the federal level. ;-)

In a way, Angela Merkel's administration is the quintessential "conservative" government. They stand for stability, safety, and reliability. Nothing fancy, nothing radical, no risks. They're the Volkswagen among governments. The downside of course is that it is also horribly stagnant and uninspired.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hans-Olaf Henkel - as former president of the Federation of German Industries, former AfD deputy chairman, and current MEP one of the most prominent members of the AfD's liberal wing - has left the party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, in any case it's a plausible scenario that the remaining AfD could become a party of conspiracy theorists who blame Muslims, "the media", the Green Party, the EU, and the American government for everything from trains who run behind schedule to chemtrails in the sky.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lucke and his followers are probably going to form their own political party. In addition, Pegida has announced their attention to run in the upcoming state elections. That's a lot of competition on the right side of the CDU. In the end we could end up with three separate forces each receiving roughly 3% of the vote.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD members of the European parliament who have left the party in the recent days:

- Joachim Starbatty
- Hans-Olaf Henkel
- Bernd Kölmel
- Ulrike Trebesius

I imagine Bernd Lucke will join them soon. This leaves only Beatrix von Storch and Marcus Pretzell. Both are considered representatives of the "national conservative" wing and are therefore likely to stay with the party. But the AfD's representation in the European parliament will be reduced from 7 to 2 as a result of Frauke Petry's election to party chairmanship.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD drops to 3% in latest Emnid poll.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany's prosecutor general is now an ex-prosecutor general. The justice minister just terminated the employment... officially due to insubordination on the prosecutor's part, unofficially as an excercise in ass-covering.

Background: http://www.dw.com/en/german-justice-minister-maas-terminates-federal-prosecuter-range/a-18625000

[Middle-aged Europe]

     If there was still a CDU/FDP government, would its stance toward the refugee/migrant crisis be any different than what we are seeing?

Probably not.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SWR and the MDR (the main state TV stations in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz and Sachsen-Anhalt) have refused to let the AfD participate in the TV debates for the March 13 state elections.

This can only help the AfD because ignoring and censoring a party won't go anywhere.

FDP and Left Party weren't allowed to that debates either.

Just saying... everyone seems to obsess themselves over the AfD like the other two parties don't even exist anymore.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bild headline: Will Merkel soon be forced out of office?



I'd say unthinkable headline a couple of weeks ago.

And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

[Middle-aged Europe]

[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.

What's your point?

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the latest ZDF Politbarometer, 83% of all Germans say that they experienced "only minor problems" or "no problems" with the refugees living in their area (or that no refugees live in their area at all).

70% say that they're not afraid to become a victim of a refugee-related crime.

66% expect an increase in the crime rate due to the refugees.

54% disapprove of Chancellor Merkel's refugee/immigration policies, 41% approve.

52% name either the CDU/CSU or the SPD as the party with the "greatest competence" with regards to refugee/immigration policies. 30% say either "no party" or "don't know". 12% say either Greens, Left Party, or FDP. 6% say AfD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's the FDP's reaction to the crisis btw? I notice they've dipped up in the polls.

More or less in line with Merkel, I think.

FDP federal chairman Christian Lindner gave a speech in the Northrhine-Westphalian state parliament a few days ago in which he stopped short of calling the AfD Nazis.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/umgang-mit-der-afd-sie-verharmlosen-die-wahren-feinde-unserer-gesellschaft-14048089.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wahl-o-mat for the Saxony-Anhalt state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sa2016w/


My results were...

Greens 73.7%
Left 72.4%
Free Voters 63.2%
FDP 59.2%
SPD 56.6%
AfD 44.7%
NPD 38.2%
CDU 35.5%