Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 13, 2019, 08:25:03 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Admiral Lord Horatio D'Ascoyne)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 177 Print
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 484541 times)
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,265
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 24, 2013, 09:27:51 am »

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
While it's impossible to predict and your outcome is well within the result of possibility... in Germany, unlike some other countries, the Euro electorate has always tended to be more 'pro-European' than the population at large, not less.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
This is both correct. (I actually searched for clues on the latter question, but I don't really expect any kind of answers until just before the election, possibly even not until right after. I doubt it's high on the party leadership's to-do list right now.)
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,778
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 25, 2013, 07:32:13 pm »

Speaking of lower threshold hurdles for the EP, are there any proposals to lower the threshold hurdles in Landtag or even Bundestag elections that mainstream parties and politicians are talking about?
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,265
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: October 26, 2013, 04:44:14 am »

They're not talking about it all that much, and the media don't report it when they do, but the Left proposes to abolish the threshold for federal elections, and have introduced bills to that effect.
Logged
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,960
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: October 26, 2013, 05:12:56 am »

Abolish it altogether? How would that work? Or do they just want to set it low at like 1%?
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,265
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: October 26, 2013, 05:25:43 am »

Abolish altogether. And yeah, that'd mean you win a seat at about 0.1% of the nationwide vote.
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: October 28, 2013, 05:19:25 am »

Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,599
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: October 29, 2013, 01:02:44 pm »

Wait, so what happened with forming a government? Is it officially going to be a Grand Coalition or are they still negotiating?
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: October 29, 2013, 06:57:16 pm »

Wait, so what happened with forming a government? Is it officially going to be a Grand Coalition or are they still negotiating?

The coalition negotiations between CDU/CSU and the SPD are ongoing. (But it's pretty obvious both sides want it.)
Logged
Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,939


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2013, 04:51:01 pm »

To be precise, the SPD is currently trying to figure if they want the Ministry of Finance or if they want to forfeit it in exchange for more of their platform planks being pushed through...

But yeah, barring a very surprising turn of events, it's gonna be a Grand coalition.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,798
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2013, 05:06:00 pm »

And in Hessen? Black-green coalition?
Logged
Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,939


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2013, 05:31:55 pm »
« Edited: October 30, 2013, 05:34:38 pm by Old Europe »


Don't have much clue about Hesse, but perhaps Lewis knows more about it.

Last thing I heard is that CDU + SPD, CDU + Greens, and even SPD, Greens + Left are still negotiating with each other. But they have the advantage that the state parliament's new term doesn't start until January or something, while the new elected Bundestag's legislative period had already begun earlier this month. So the Hessians aren't really in a rush.
Logged
ERvND
Full Member
***
Posts: 143
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2013, 05:48:00 pm »

But yeah, barring a very surprising turn of events, it's gonna be a Grand coalition.

The only potential hurdle right now is the SPD members poll.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,265
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2013, 01:07:01 pm »


Don't have much clue about Hesse, but perhaps Lewis knows more about it.

Last thing I heard is that CDU + SPD, CDU + Greens, and even SPD, Greens + Left are still negotiating with each other.
sondieren, so sort of pre-negotiating. But the the "and even" should be placed before Black-Green; clearly the least probable outcome.

It also remains entirely possible that no government will be formed at all and we'll vote again some day. But the likelihood of that has clearly decreased.
Logged
palandio
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 606


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2013, 06:30:29 am »

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,227
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: November 03, 2013, 06:05:23 am »

"Fresh wind" for the Greens:

Logged
Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,939


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: November 03, 2013, 12:03:01 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2013, 02:50:41 pm by Old Europe »

About three minutes ago the polls have closed in Berlin's referendum on renationalizing energy supply in the city-state (which is currently run by Swedish company Vattenfall).

Results will be published here as soon as they come in:
https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/abstimmungen/VE2013_NEnergie/Ergebnisprozent.asp?sel1=6052&sel2=0798

Turnout is currently estimated at 30% which means that the necessary quorum of 25% yes votes could have been reached. (25% of all eligible voters have to vote "yes" as well as a majority of the voters who actually cast a ballot in the referendum).

Back in 2011, there was a similar referendum regarding the water supply in Berlin. It had a turnout of 27.5%, with 98% voting in favour.
Logged
Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,939


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: November 03, 2013, 02:03:28 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2013, 03:37:04 pm by Old Europe »

Turnout: 29.1%
Yes votes: 83.0% (= 24.1% of eligible voters)
No votes: 16.8%

The referendum has therefore failed to produce the required quorum of 25% yes votes from all eligible voters.


Highest turnout: 36.9% in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
Lowest turnout: 23.3% in Marzahn-Hellersdorf

Most yes votes: 92.9% in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg
Most no votes: 26.4% in Reinickendorf

I guess it's not completely a coincidence that in the recent Bundestag election the CDU had its best result in Reinickendorf and the Greens their best result in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg.

And Marzahn-Hellersdorf also had the lowest turnout in the Bundestag election (since the people there are not interested in politics as long as no criminal immigrants come to their borough and take away their non-existing jobs Tongue ).
Logged
Mynheer Peeperkorn
Peeperkorn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,778
Uruguay


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -8.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: November 03, 2013, 02:07:39 pm »

Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

Germany seems to be the most "polled" country in the world.
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: November 04, 2013, 08:26:38 am »

Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

Germany seems to be the most "polled" country in the world.

We really do get a lot of polls... Speaking of which:

There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

CDU: 27% (+4%)
SPD: 27% (-1%)
Grüne: 16% (-2%)
Linke: 16% (+4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Piraten: 3% (-6%)
Logged
Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,939


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: November 04, 2013, 01:33:12 pm »

There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

...

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


It seems plausible that the Pirates won't have representation in any state parliament a couple of years from now. It was just a fad after all.
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: November 04, 2013, 05:48:32 pm »



There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

CDU: 27% (+4%)
SPD: 27% (-1%)
Grüne: 16% (-2%)
Linke: 16% (+4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


I guess the FDP is at ZERO?
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,291
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: November 04, 2013, 06:15:12 pm »

Probably around 1% in Berlin. They've been counted as "others" for a while in Berlin. And in 2011, I think they were under 2%.
Logged
njwes
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 379
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: November 04, 2013, 06:17:56 pm »

There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

...

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


It seems plausible that the Pirates won't have representation in any state parliament a couple of years from now. It was just a fad after all.

It's nice to see the Pirate fad has run its course across Europe, I've seen enough V for Vendetta masks to tide me over for a decade or so Wink
Logged
njwes
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 379
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: November 04, 2013, 06:18:46 pm »

Old Europe, why do you think the opposition to the nationalization (while still quite small) increased so notably since the 2011 referendum?
Logged
Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,939


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: November 05, 2013, 04:18:06 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2013, 04:45:21 am by Old Europe »

Old Europe, why do you think the opposition to the nationalization (while still quite small) increased so notably since the 2011 referendum?

First of all, the state government sort of "defused" the situation by promising beforehand that they would implement at least part of the referendum's demands... namely the establishment of a separate, additional power plant which is run on renewable energies.

Second, the 2011 water referendum didn't call for a renationalization as explicitly. It demanded that the water supply privatization contracts shall be made public and if any irregularities were to be found in them that they should be declared null and void.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 177 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC