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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 479843 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2013, 06:45:58 pm »

Infratest dimap state poll from Baden-Württemberg (change in relation to 2011 election):

CDU: 43% (+4%)
Grüne: 22% (-2%)
SPD: 19% (-4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Linke: 4% (+1%)
FDP: 4% (-1%)


The current green-red government would lose its majority.
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Franzl
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« Reply #76 on: November 10, 2013, 07:54:41 am »

Two new polls:

State election in Thüringen (they vote next year) from INSA (changes in relation to the 2009 election)Sad
CDU: 36% (+5%)
Linke: 27% (n.c.)
SPD: 14% (-5%)
AfD: 6% (+6%)
Grüne: 6% (n.c.)

FDP: 2% (-6%)

So nothing to see here, grand coalition would be continued...



Federal poll from Emnid:
CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%
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Franzl
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« Reply #77 on: November 14, 2013, 12:34:25 pm »

Red-red-green will not govern Hessen.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-hessen/schaefer-guembel-wird-nicht-ministerpraesident-aus-der-traum-12663348.html

So either black-green, grand coalition or new elections.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #78 on: November 14, 2013, 12:46:11 pm »

Shame. Sad
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #79 on: November 18, 2013, 11:58:36 am »

Brandenburg has chosen a date for their state election next year:

September 14
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Franzl
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« Reply #80 on: November 22, 2013, 06:57:48 am »

Looks like CDU and Greens have sorted out many differences and will negotiate forming a black-green government here in Hessen.

http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/koalitionsverhandlungen-cdu-will-schwarz-gruen-in-hessen-12675851.html
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Franzl
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« Reply #81 on: November 22, 2013, 07:16:19 am »

Considering how long they've been having discussions about virtually every option out there, I think this means they're quite serious and that we will get the first black-green government in a Flächenland.
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Franzl
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« Reply #82 on: November 26, 2013, 12:35:53 pm »

Anyway, the federal coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD are coming to an end:

It appears the SPD has agreed to forget about tax increases, will accept the general toll for the Autobahn, and will also forget about restricting the salaries of CEOs.

In exchange for this, it looks like the CDU/CSU will give them: a minimum wage of 8,50€ starting in 2015 (although there would be certain exceptions for the first 2 years), full equality of gay civil unions (possibly also including the right to adopt, although they're quite vague on the details), a gender quota for certain leadership posts.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot, but it seems like the parties are coming to an overall agreement.


Let's see whether the SPD members also agree to it in their referendum.
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #83 on: November 26, 2013, 01:22:13 pm »

It appears the SPD has agreed to forget about tax increases, will accept the general toll for the Autobahn, and will also forget about restricting the salaries of CEOs.

In exchange for this, it looks like the CDU/CSU will give them: a minimum wage of 8,50€ starting in 2015 (although there would be certain exceptions for the first 2 years), full equality of gay civil unions (possibly also including the right to adopt, although they're quite vague on the details), a gender quota for certain leadership posts.

It all sounded so good until the affermative action.
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Franzl
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« Reply #84 on: November 27, 2013, 10:34:39 am »

Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #85 on: November 27, 2013, 10:36:16 am »

Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

Just a formality ...
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Franzl
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« Reply #86 on: November 27, 2013, 10:39:55 am »

Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

Just a formality ...

What makes you so certain? I'm not so convinced. More likely than not....but let's wait and see.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #87 on: November 27, 2013, 10:46:05 am »

Besides, let's see if the Germans can really implement the road toll for foreigners only ...

It's unlikely that the European Court of Justice will uphold a law that discriminates foreigners.

And Austrian Transport Minister Doris Bures has already said she will bring the case to the ECoJ if Germany implements it:

http://www.tt.com/politik/7536387-91/deutsche-maut-bures-droht-mit-eugh.csp

(Which of course is the correct decision to do on part of the Austrian Minister, as long as the Germans don't compensate us for their students crowding our universities free of charge).

Also, there have been several cases here in Austria from German tourists a few years ago, filing charges against the benefits for Austrian citizens for skiing area passes (Austrians got a discount when they went skiing, while Germans and other tourists had to pay the full price for the ski card). This was scrapped by the ECoJ and everyone needs to pay the same price now.

So, there's already a precedent on this and ironically brought into the field by Germans ... Tongue

So, let it fail ... Wink
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Franzl
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« Reply #88 on: November 27, 2013, 10:46:27 am »

The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #89 on: November 27, 2013, 10:49:51 am »

The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

The road toll is for Germans and foreigners, but the German car owners get the road-toll cost back via lower car-insurance taxes, no ? At least that's what I've read. Which means Germans are exemt from the toll.

Plus, we can complain because we have to pay the full toll as well, like all German tourists need as well ...
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Franzl
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« Reply #90 on: November 27, 2013, 10:54:58 am »

The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

The road toll is for Germans and foreigners, but the German car owners get the road-toll cost back via lower car-insurance taxes, no ? At least that's what I've read. Which means Germans are exemt from the toll.

Plus, we can complain because we have to pay the full toll as well, like all German tourists need as well ...

You haven't answered the part about the universities... Smiley Austrians are just as entitled to free universities in Germany (in all but 1 state, at least) as the other way around. Now there are other reasons the latter is more common (numerus clausus), but it still doesn't have anything to do with motorway fees.

The argument about lowering our automobile tax to compensate for the toll is true, but I still think it's an unfair complaint. What if we lowered certain income taxes to make it a neutral fee? Domestic taxation policy is an internal political matter.

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FredLindq
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« Reply #91 on: November 27, 2013, 02:22:45 pm »

Sozialdemoratische Union Deutschlands!
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Franknburger
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« Reply #92 on: November 27, 2013, 02:38:05 pm »

The road toll will never come. It needs Bundesrat approval - if the compensation shall be done via vehicle tax, that tax' revenue is for the States, and the Federation will also need State institutions for road toll collection (car registration offices, etc.). Means at least a lengthy negotiation process (how will the Federal Government compensate the States for less vehicle tax revenue and administration costs for toll collection), but most likely ultimately failure (Greens have usually been clever enough to put a veto clause on Budesrat voting in their state-level coalition agreements).
I just don't understand why the SPD put so much effort into negotiating the toll at all, instead of just saying "o.k." and killing it afterwards in the Bundesrat ...
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Antonio V
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« Reply #93 on: November 27, 2013, 03:37:01 pm »

Meh, the agreement is a bit disappointing, but I guess that considering the numbers the SPD could hardly get anything else. I'm happy for German workers, the minimum wage will be a great thing.
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Franzl
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« Reply #94 on: November 27, 2013, 05:39:16 pm »

Meh, the agreement is a bit disappointing, but I guess that considering the numbers the SPD could hardly get anything else. I'm happy for German workers, the minimum wage will be a great thing.

The SPD really did themselves relatively cheap, although given the Union's 41%, that's not terribly surprising.

To be honest, I'd be more interested in seeing black-green at federal level as well, but unless the SPD members revolt..and even then....not gonna happen.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #95 on: November 28, 2013, 03:29:55 am »

To be honest, I'd be more interested in seeing black-green at federal level as well, but unless the SPD members revolt..and even then....not gonna happen.
Our local newspaper has asked a number of people -local politicians as well as people from the street - on their opinion. The politicians (either SPD or CDU) all lauded the compromise, people from the street said they would have preferred black-green after all. But its not going to happen -the old Green leadership (Trittin/ Roth) has destroyed too many bridges during the election campaign, and the new leadership needs time to refocus the party.

"Cheap" is actually not a correct word to describe the outcome - the agreement includes 23 billion Euros extra spending (infrastructure, pensions, etc.), and nobody knows yet how to finance it. Merkel boosts her pride to have blocked any tax increases proposed by the SPD.

Furthermore, as could be expected from a Grand Coalition, the compromise includes more government rights for storing and exploiting data on citizens (including telecommunications usage) - as if there never had been something like the NSA affair. Greens, but also what is left from the FDP, have already voiced their protest.
Expansion of wind power shall be curtailed, coal-fired power plants get operation guarantees - the old "coal miring' SPD is back.

A final observation: The pension compromise that nobody knows how to finance yet includes the right to go into pension at 63, provided people have worked at least for 45 years (SPD), and higher pension entitlement for motherhood times (CDU). The SPD is criticising the CDU's old-fashioned gender perspective, without realising that 99,9% of the people to benefit from the "pension after 45 years of work" will be (blue collar) males. Both parties have failed to provide any answer to the pension needs of today's women (especially single mothers), who typically  will combine periods of motherhood, part-time and full-time work in their biography.

In short - a rather fragile compromise between the traditionalists in both parties, brought about by classical "cheque-book diplomacy", which fails to address various challenges of the 21st century.
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Franzl
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« Reply #96 on: November 28, 2013, 03:54:10 am »

I meant cheap in the sense that there's nothing in the contract that seriously bothers the Union. I think the Greens would have more to show for themselves if such a coalition happened.
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Franzl
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« Reply #97 on: November 29, 2013, 05:11:24 am »

SPD crashing further on Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Linke: 10%
Grüne: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #98 on: November 29, 2013, 06:12:45 am »

Hannelore Kraft: "I will never run for Chancellor."
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Franzl
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« Reply #99 on: November 29, 2013, 06:59:43 am »


That's a shame. Even for someone who usually votes CDU, I would welcome an "aggressive" and authentic social democrat for a change.
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