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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655365 times)
Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #225 on: January 06, 2014, 11:35:38 AM »

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Nobody has heard of that pollster before. According to their website - if you substract all this promotion bubbles - it seems to be a relatively new (2013) small polling firm based in Leipzig. And political polling seems to be not their main scope, instead of marketing and polling about the media system. They have no experience in this niche. So I would take this result with several grains of salt
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ERvND
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« Reply #226 on: January 06, 2014, 06:07:53 PM »

Sachsen/uniQma

49% CDU
17% SPD
15% Left
  6% Greens
  6% AfD
  2% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% NPD
  2% Others

The pollster aside, this poll is not entirely implausible. There are some oddities, however.

CDU at 49% is absolutely believable, if the FDP collapse comes true.

SPD at 17% would be a shocking result. I found this to be absolutely incredible, but it's backed up by some older polls that had them at 15-16%. This would equal a vote increase of ca. 50%. It becomes more plausible when you look at the Linke prediction of 15%, however.

Greens and AfD at 6% are reasonable. If it excels at the Europe elections in May, the AfD might get even stronger.

Of course they have to get their votes from somewhere, and if we follow this scenario, it's the FDP. Still, the FDP at only 2% is not realistic. Firstly, Saxony is a traditional FDP stronghold, secondly, Grand coalition politics will have an impact until August, resulting in middle-class voters reverting from the CDU.

Also, NPD at 1% is too optimistic by far. They will have a hard time entering the Landtag this year, but I can hardly imagine them below 3%.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #227 on: January 06, 2014, 06:33:24 PM »

Of course, this would not be implausible, as you mentioned. On the other hand there is a history of SPD strongly overperforming in Saxon polls in comparison to actual election results - with a corresponding PDS/Left-underperformance.
There are some other factors that might benefit the SPD:

1. The Left state party does ocurr as a horrible bunch of old school GDR technocrats with no vision. 2. If there is no power option emerging besides the CDU a CDU/SPD might be seen as a lesser evil by many left wing voters. In 2004-2009 the SPD was quite successful in preventing the implementation of typical Saxonian CDU BS policies. The Greens are not that inspiring, either.
3. There has been a large inmigration of young adults from throughout Germany into the three big cities Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz in the last ten years. In the last years the numbers of western transplants rose. Those are subgroups of the population who are seen as more willing to vote SPD (and Greens) over Linke. In addition, in these three cities and SPD ground organization exists which can not really be said for all parts of the countryside. So the reurbanization processes should be good for the SPD to some extent.
4. In 2009 the SPD had slight gains in many regions, but heavy losses in Leipzig, for which Leipzig's SPD mayor Burkhard Jung and his predecessor Tiefensee were blamed. But as Jung achieved a decisivel victory over weak opponents in the mayoral election, last year, it is possible some votes of this now would stick with the SPD in the Landtag elections for it is seen as more viable. But this point is only broad speculation.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #228 on: January 07, 2014, 11:23:08 AM »

Yasmin Fahimi, the secretary of the mining and chemical industries labour union BCE, is reported to become new general secretary of the SPD, as Andrea Nahles was appointed to the Merkel III cabinet.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #229 on: January 15, 2014, 06:58:43 AM »

All state election dates have now been set:

31.08.2014: Sachsen (Saxony)
14.09.2014: Brandenburg, Thüringen (Thuringia)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #230 on: January 15, 2014, 07:04:49 AM »

New Hamburg state election poll by Infratest dimap for NDR:



EU elections:



Job approvals of party leaders:



Direct vote for Mayor:



By party:



http://www.ndr.de/regional/hamburg/umfrage621.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #231 on: January 15, 2014, 07:08:42 AM »

New Bayern (Bavaria) state election poll by Infratest dimap for BR:



Also:

Bavarians support the CSU-policy against "Social tourism into the German safety net by poor Romanians and Bulgarians" by 60-35.

Bavarians also support the use of mini-cameras on police helmets/uniforms:



http://www.br.de/fernsehen/bayerisches-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/bayerntrend-2014-kontrovers-100.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #232 on: January 15, 2014, 07:27:14 AM »

Interesting chart from last weeks Infratest dimap Germany poll:



Opinions about immigration from EU member countries

83-14 agree (immigrants from other EU countries who move to Germany, but with no intention to work, should get no financial benefits)

76-20 agree (the political parties are doing not enough about the problems that are caused by immigration)

70-26 agree (immigrants from other EU countries who move to Germany, but with no intention to work, should have to leave the country again)

68-31 agree (our economy needs qualified workers from other countries to remain successful)

46-49 disagree (I think that Germany has more advantages than disadvantages from immigrants)

34-65 disagree (I'm personally scared by the immigration of foreigners of other EU member countries)
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #233 on: January 25, 2014, 11:08:03 PM »

Depressing poll results.  Anyways, Kretschmann looks like he's in for a fight with the Catholic Church in B-W over the issue of teaching sexual diversity in public school sex-ed classes.  Hope it doesn't do him in in such a conservative state.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #234 on: January 26, 2014, 03:07:07 PM »

Depressing poll results.  Anyways, Kretschmann looks like he's in for a fight with the Catholic Church in B-W over the issue of teaching sexual diversity in public school sex-ed classes.  Hope it doesn't do him in in such a conservative state.

Church membership in Baden-Würtemberg (2011, quoted from Wikipedia):

Catholics        35.8 %
Protestants     31.9 %
Muslim             5.6 %
other               1.6 %
None              25.1 %

Against these figures, a fight with the Catholic Church on their influence on school teaching should rather benefit the Greens (note also that Catholic doesn't necessarily mean socially conservative, as Kretschmann, a Catholic himself, proves).
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Franzl
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« Reply #235 on: January 29, 2014, 11:16:11 AM »

New federal Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 11%
Linke: 9%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%

CDU/CSU 1% short of an absolute majority.

In a direct election for chancellor:   Merkel 59%- Gabriel 16%
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #236 on: February 02, 2014, 11:46:37 AM »

Anyways, Gabriel is now the undisputed frontrunner for the SPD's candidacy in 2017.

To the Germans here: Any chance Merkel will step down mid-term?  I realize that von der Leyen now appears to be obvious successor.  In which case, it would appear that the current CDU dynasty is set to last at least another 8 years or so. 
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Franzl
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« Reply #237 on: February 02, 2014, 11:52:56 AM »

To the Germans here: Any chance Merkel will step down mid-term?

There have been rumors, that, of course, have been denied by the government. But it wouldn't be a big surprise.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #238 on: February 05, 2014, 10:17:47 AM »
« Edited: February 05, 2014, 10:37:26 AM by Click here for porn »

Long-time Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit (SPD) is in some - possibly career-ending? - trouble.

One of his under secretaries apparently conducted some tax evasion and Wowereit knew of it since 2012, but didn't do anything about it back then. He fired him now, after it finally became public a couple of days ago. Further criticism stems from the fact that Wowereit is currently on vacation in Austria, which he doesn't intend to interrupt despite the scandal and is therefore only communicating through written statements.

Apparently, some folks are even planning to start a official petition on holding a referendum which would trigger early elections in the city-state (Article 54 Section 3 of the Berlin constitution states that the state parliament's term can be prematurely terminated if the citizens demand it through a referendum).
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palandio
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« Reply #239 on: February 08, 2014, 07:48:59 AM »

In spring local elections will take place in many cities and towns of Germany:

16 March: Bavaria (for example Munich and Nuremberg)
30 March: Run-offs in Bavaria
25 May: North Rhine-Westfalia, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Pomerania

In Munich all parties and groups that are represented in the city council at the moment will file lists again:

SPD (33 seats at the moment), CSU (22), Greens (11), FDP (4), Left (3), Free Voters (3), Pink List [LGBT] (1), ÖDP [Ecological Democratic Party] (1), Bavaria Party (1), Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop [NPD, neo-nazi] (1).
In the last election only one Free Voters candidate had been elected, but one CSU and one FDP member crossed the floor.
Additionally the following groups have successfully filed lists:
AfD [euro-sceptics that got 4.8% in the last federal election], Pirate Party, The Liberty [islamophobes], Electoral Group HUT [humanistic-independent-tolerant].
These groups failed to reach 1000 signatures: Young List, Animal Welfare, Party of Reason ["Libertarians"] and The Violets [Spiritual Politics]

All groups that have successfully filed lists, will also run a mayor candidate, with the exception of Pink List and Pirate Party. Christian Ude (SPD), mayor and very popular for 21 years, has reached the age limit, will resign and go to Mykonos. The most prominent candidates are:
Dieter Reiter (SPD), who will try to defend the mayor post for his party,
Josef Schmid (CSU), who ran in 2008 but had no chance against Ude,
Sabine Nallinger (Greens).
This open seat race will be much more contested than the 1999, 2002 and 2008 elections.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #240 on: February 13, 2014, 08:31:25 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 10:26:15 AM by President of the BLAND Corporation »

BIZARRE CHILD PORNOGRAPHY SCANDAL!!


So, this is what happened so far:

Last week, mid-level SPD Bundestag member Sebastian Edathy suddenly announced his resignation, effective immediately. He cited "health reasons" for taking this step.

Early this week, police searched Edathy's house und soon rumours concerning child pornography started to surface. Edathy - who apparently isn't in Germany at this point - has denied the allegations and claims his innocence via Facebook.

Today, it was revealed that SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel was informed of the investigations against Edathy since last October because then-interior minister (and incumbent agriculture minister) Hans-Peter Friedrich had told him about it.

This means that Friedrich may have exceeded his authority and has possibly even committed a crime (e.g. Section 353b of the Criminal Code: Breach of official secrets and special duties of confidentiality).
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Franknburger
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« Reply #241 on: February 13, 2014, 02:51:11 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 02:56:08 PM by Franknburger »

Intended to post the same story - this will keep going on for some time.

In fact, Edathy has been a bit more than a mid-level SPD parliamentarian. He was head of the parliamentary committee that investigated the NSU affair (NSU = national-socialist underground, a terror cell that over almost 15 years committed at least ten murders of ethnic Turks and Greeks living in Germany, plus one policewoman, without ever getting noticed by authorities). Many expected him to assume a government post in the grand coalition - secretary of state within the Ministry of Interior, possibly with responsibility for combatting politically-motivated crime, looks like a plausible option. That would also explain why Friedrich in October, i.e. when coalition talks were already on-going, pointed out to Gabriel, Steinmeier and SPD parliamentary whip Thomas Oppermann that investigation against Edarthy was under way.

Edathy had since October withdrawn from active political work, reportedly for "burn-out symptoms", and this week formally resigned as Bundestag member - just before an official request for removing his parliamentary immunity was to be launched. Today, the police searched his house and his office, finding only one computer (but cabling for a number more), and remains of a mechanically destroyed hard-disk.  His IP address has been recorded with a Canada-based child pornography ring. However - a politician with focus on crime prevention may also have professional reasons to check out such a site. So far, it seems unlikely that anything else may be proven..

Now it gets interesting:
1. Why, absent any hard proof on Edathy's involvement with child pornography, has the whole case been published?

2. Why does SPD parliamentary whip Thomas Oppermann (a lawyer from Hannover, just as Edathy) on the morning Edathy's premises are being searched, issue a press statement that he, Gabriel and Steinmeier (both also representing southern Lower Saxony - it's quite a local club) had already last October been informed by Friedrich about on-going investigations?

3. Why does Oppermann, in the same statement, point out that he had cross-checked Friedrich's information with Bundeskriminalalamt (Federal Bureau of Investigation) head Jörg Ziercke, just for Ziercke, himself SPD member, immediately denying having given any information on the case to Oppermann?

4. How come the Hannover state attorneys, after the search of Edathy's premises failed to find anything substantial, issuing a press statement indicating Friedrich may have committed a crime by warning a suspect on an on-going investigation? And the Berlin state attorneys just a few hours later announcing they have started an official investigation in Friedrich's action (who, of course, is also under parliamentary immunity)?

This looks like the overture to a war of roses that may easily evolve into everyone against everyone, and the protagonists involved are anything but political lightweights. Note, btw, that Steinmeier has still a score to settle with Friedrich, who during the election campaign suggested that it was Steinmeier inviting the NSA to wire-tap German citizens. There is also substantial discomfort within the SPD on having given in to CDU pressure on the issue of storing phone and internet connection data - officially to ensure Germany complies with respective EU regulation (which the European Constitutional court has in the meantime ruled to be in violation of EU principles).
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #242 on: February 13, 2014, 04:56:47 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 05:06:24 PM by President of the BLAND Corporation »

I have a strong feeling that Friedrich will be an ex-minister a week from now. Merkel sure doesn't like having a liability on the cabinet and so she'll try to contain the damage. I guess Jörg Ziercke, the head of the Federal Criminal Police, might also be considered expendable at this point.

This still leaves a lot of questions though. For instance, is Edathy a pedophile, the victim of an intrigue against him or maybe even both? Did someone in the government use the information which was illegally "leaked" by Friedrich to the SPD to tip off Edathy and if so, who? Where exactly is Edathy and does he intend to return to Germany? And why the f**k did German politics suddenly turn into House of Cards?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #243 on: February 14, 2014, 04:39:30 AM »
« Edited: February 14, 2014, 08:30:38 AM by President of the BLAND Corporation »

Probability increases that Friedrich steps down today. Left, Greens, and FDP have demanded his resignation and the CSU leadership has come together for an emergency meeting "to discuss the minister's future".

UPDATE: Friedrich - Gonna resign if a investigation is launched against me.

http://www.dw.de/german-agriculture-minister-friedrich-offers-potential-resignation-amid-edathy-scandal/a-17430631
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #244 on: February 14, 2014, 10:29:04 AM »

Tagesschau says, Friedrich will resign in half an hour.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #245 on: February 14, 2014, 10:32:40 AM »

Yeah, Friedrich is gone. That was a fast one... resignation for something which had only became public 24 hours ago or so.
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Franzl
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« Reply #246 on: February 14, 2014, 10:35:19 AM »

Kind of tragic that this is what sunk Friedrich's boat. I can think of better reasons he should have gotten the boot long ago.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #247 on: February 14, 2014, 11:09:22 AM »
« Edited: February 14, 2014, 11:14:40 AM by Franknburger »

Yes, but that's how policy works.

So, the SPD gets a knight for a pawn. I wonder whether that is the end of the story. The queen Merkel won't touch Gabriel and Steinmeier at the moment, because that would mean new elections, and probably the AfD entering the Bundestag. But Oppermann might be vulnerable...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #248 on: February 14, 2014, 11:49:41 AM »

Friedrich's announcement in short:
- He didn't do anything wrong.
- He steps down due to "lack of political support".
- He'll be back.

This is probably as close to a "f**k you Merkel" as you can get. Tongue
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Franknburger
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« Reply #249 on: February 14, 2014, 12:27:14 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2014, 12:38:42 PM by Franknburger »

Shall we start betting on the pay-back to the SPD?

I suppose the CDU/CSU will be focusing in on Minister of Labour Andrea Nahles. She isn't very popular with the general public anyway, and getting her under pressure could stop or at least delay the introduction of a minimum wage, and the costly early retirement of those having been on the labour market for at least 45 years.
She doesn't have a PhD, so that approach is out. But I wouldn't wonder if there is already a team looking through everything she said during her time as head of the JuSos (SPD youth organisation) in the 1990s.

If you ever missed "Game of Thrones", it's on again ...

P.S: As to Friedrich: I could imagine that background checking was part of the standard procedure applied to any potential candidate for office within the Grand Coalition, and done upon prior agreement with both Merkel and Gabriel. If so, Friedrich has every reason to be pi..ed on Merkel, and is probably wishing he had left it to Merkel to pass on information retrieved to the SPD leadership.
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