German Elections & Politics

[Enno von Loewenstern]

INSA

41,5% CDU/CSU   
24,0% SPD   
10,0% Greens   
9,0% Left   
5,5% AfD
------
4,5% FDP
2,0% Pirates       
3,5% Others



Emnid

41% CDU/CSU   
24% SPD   
10% Greens   
10% Left   
5% AfD
------
4% FDP       
6% Others



Forsa

41% CDU/CSU   
24% SPD   
10% Greens   
9% Left   
6,0% AfD
------
4,0% FDP     
6% Others

[njwes]

^The consistency between those polls is pretty amazing! Do German pollsters know something American ones don't?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

^The consistency between those polls is pretty amazing! Do German pollsters know something American ones don't?

Yes, this is truly a remarkable equality of results. Even Forsa, which does the surveys for RTL and Stern for weeks not out of line. Forsa, whose boss Güllner, a Social Democrat, is known for strong opinions and really not being averse to disputes. He loathed the left wing of the SPD, the Greens and the AfD at the same time. With the AfD leader Lucke he stood up in the courts, about the Greens, he wrote a scathing book and the SPD will not give him any more orders. Forsas results are usually known to always stand out a little, in order to tell and sell a new story almost every week, but since the recent federeal elections all numbers from all polling institutes stayed nearly the same.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The facebook likes of the major German parties. First, because I like to be Tender Branson in disguise for Mr Bear, King of Animals, and secondly, because we have the first party with more than 100,000 likes.

100.007 AfD
89.341 Pirates
77.894 CDU
70.505 SPD
66.954 Left
48.639 Greens
27.634 FDP
21.730 CSU

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Saxony state election 31 August 2014

CDU 43%
Left 18%
SPD 16%
AfD 6%
Greens 6%
-----
NPD 4%
FDP 4%
Others 3%

Saxony European elections

CDU 41%
SPD 18%
Left 17%
AfD 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 2%
Others 7%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Are you satisfied with:



Are you satisfied with the government? very satisfied, satisfied, less satisfied, not at all





Your personal taxation: to high, appropriate, to low, do not pay taxes

[Middle-aged Europe]

The facebook likes of the major German parties. First, because I like to be Tender Branson in disguise for Mr Bear, King of Animals, and secondly, because we have the first party with more than 100,000 likes.

100.007 AfD
89.341 Pirates
77.894 CDU
70.505 SPD
66.954 Left
48.639 Greens
27.634 FDP
21.730 CSU

So, AfD and Pirates have more Facebook likes than they have party members, and CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, and CSU have more party members than they have Facebook likes.

(Coincidentally, the Left has about the same number of likes as they have members, although I strongly suspect that both groups aren't remotely identical.)

If anything, it could tell something about the structure of a party's supporter base and their level of commitment. While AfD and Pirate supporters are more likely to publicly declare their support for their party on the Web, they're also more unlikely to actually engage in real-life political activities. This leads to a phenomenon which I would describe as "desk activists". People who are posting loads of stuff on the Web from their home or at work, but lack the will or the interest to go to party events or participate in more "active activities".

Secondly, it also reflects the form of communication AfD and Pirates conduct as newer, and less established political parties. Facebook is probably used as a cheaper and easyily managable  alternative to other channels of communication which the more established parties regularly use, but AfD and Pirates don't (yet) possess because of a lack of ressources.

And thirdly, it's also a matter of age structure and how familiar with the Internet someone's base is. Pirate supporters are obviously much younger and much more Web-orentied than CSU supporters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The facebook likes of the major German parties. First, because I like to be Tender Branson in disguise for Mr Bear, King of Animals, and secondly, because we have the first party with more than 100,000 likes.

100.007 AfD
89.341 Pirates
77.894 CDU
70.505 SPD
66.954 Left
48.639 Greens
27.634 FDP
21.730 CSU

So, AfD and Pirates have more Facebook likes than they have party members, and CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, and CSU have more party members than they have Facebook likes.

(Coincidentally, the Left has about the same number of likes as they have members, although I strongly suspect that both groups aren't remotely identical.)

If anything, it could tell something about the structure of a party's supporter base and their level of commitment. While AfD and Pirate supporters are more likely to publicly declare their support for their party on the Web, they're also more unlikely to actually engage in real-life political activities. This leads to a phenomenon which I would describe as "desk activists". People who are posting loads of stuff on the Web from their home or at work, but lack the will or the interest to go to party events or participate in more "active activities".

Secondly, it also reflects the form of communication AfD and Pirates conduct as newer, and less established political parties. Facebook is probably used as a cheaper and easyily managable  alternative to other channels of communication which the more established parties regularly use, but AfD and Pirates don't (yet) possess because of a lack of ressources.

And thirdly, it's also a matter of age structure and how familiar with the Internet someone's base is. Pirate supporters are obviously much younger and much more Web-orentied than CSU supporters.

The main surprise that when I first saw them was the Greens. I assumed they would have a younger, savvy base that competes with the Pirates. I suppose that shows how much the German Greens have become part of the furniture.

Also this thread (and Enno's posts) post scare me. Because on my CV it says I can speak German "well". And I just realised I literally cannot understand a single word on those opinion polls above I only stopped learning two years ago as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The main surprise that when I first saw them was the Greens. I assumed they would have a younger, savvy base that competes with the Pirates. I suppose that shows how much the German Greens have become part of the furniture.

The average age of party members (not voters) in Germany, according to numbers on Wikipedia:

Left: 60

CDU, CSU & SPD: 59

FDP: 53

AfD: 51

Greens: 48

Pirates: 39

NPD: 37

[Middle-aged Europe]

And regarding Facebook, I would like to add that you're not necessarily a supporter of a party if you "like" it on FB.

I know from personal experience, that a lot of the active "fans" on the Green party profile are in fact not Green supporters, but AfD trolls. Don't know whether this means in return that a lot of the active AfD profile fans are in fact anti-AfD trolls and this contributes to the high number of "likes" for the AfD on Facebook.

Liking a profile enables you to post stuff there. So if you want to post on a certain party profile that this party sucks you need to "like" them.

[Beezer]

Nobody cares about the views of FDP supporters anymore.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Berlin state election

Forsa

CDU 30%
SPD 23%
Greens 16%
Left 15%
AfD 5%
Pirates 5%
----
Others 6%

Berlin federal election

Forsa

CDU 31%
SPD 22%
Left 19%
Greens 13%
AfD 5%
---
Pirates 3%
FDP 3%
Others 4%


---------------

Emnid

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 5%
---
FDP 4%
Others 6%

--------

INSA

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 25%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 5%
---
FDP 3%
Pirates 2%
Others 4%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections

infratest dimap

CDU 34%
SPD 29%
Left 20%
Greens 5%
-------
AfD 4%
NPD 3%
FDP 2%
Others 3%

Nordrhein-Westfalen state elections

infratest dimap

SPD 37%
CDU 36%
Greens 10%
FDP 5%
Left 5%
-------
AfD 3%
Pirates 2%
Others 2%

Rheinland-Pfalz state elections

infratest dimap

CDU 41%
SPD 31%
Greens 11%
--------
AfD 4%
Linke 4%
FDP 3%
Others 6%

Hamburg state elections

mafo

SPD 38,5%
CDU 22,6%
Greens 13,7%
Left 7,8%
AfD 5,8%
-------------
FDP 2,9%
Others 8,7%

Most important is the poll for state elections in Hamburg, because they are the next ones after Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia.

[MaxQue]

All of them sounds like SPD-Green, but Mecklenburg-Vorpommern which would be SPD-Left (SPD prefers being senior to Left than junior to CDU).

[Enno von Loewenstern]

In its heartland Baden-Württemberg, which is a liberal stronghold for some 200 years, the FDP melts at 3% and AfD took all of FDPs right-wing. Of course, battle is not over yet, but its AfD momentum. It will be very interesting to compare the european results on german state level.

Baden-Württemberg state elections

infratest dimap for SWR

CDU 41%
Greens 21%
SPD 20%
AfD 6%
----------
FDP 3%
Others 9 %



Germany federal elections

GMS

CDU 41%
SPD 25%%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 5%
----------
FDP 4%
Others 5%


INSA

CDU 40.0%
SPD 23,5%%
Greens 11,0%
Left 10,0%
AfD 5,5%
----------
FDP 4,0%
Others 6%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Thuringia state level

CDU 36%
Left 28%
SPD 19%
Greens 5%
---------
AfD 4%
NPD 3%
FDP 2%
Others 3%

Heavy internal conflicts in the thuringian AfD. They will need boost by successes in Europe and Saxony. Thuringian FDP is dead. The Greens are in danger to fall below the thershold, but should in the end pass. As there is now a clear option for a Left/SPD coalition, it will probably help AfD gaining tactical voters to prevent "red-red". The CDU should be interested in having both, Greens and AfD into parliament, as to still be in government after the elections.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forsa

CDU 40%
SPD 24%%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 6%
----------
FDP 4%
Others 6%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Allensbach

CDU 39,5%
SPD 26,0%%
Greens 10,5%
Left 8,0%
AfD 5,5%
FDP 5,0%
--------------
Others 5,5%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Saarland state elections

infratest

CDU 37%
SPD 34%
Left 13%
AfD 5%
Greens 5%
--------------
Pirates 2%
Others 4%*

*Which means FDP among "Others" now.

[TJ in Oregon]

Why is Die Linke so strong in Saarland? Also why is the SPD so strong there compared to the rest of southwestern Germany? Is it really industrial?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Why is Die Linke so strong in Saarland? Also why is the SPD so strong there compared to the rest of southwestern Germany? Is it really industrial?

"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS and the WASG. The PDS never had a chance in West Germany. This changed after the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) undertook the necessary welfare state reforms. Some SPD-lefties, trade unionists and far leftists formed a new party: the WASG. Even this was not particularly successful until they made Oskar Lafontaine (former SPD chairman and Schröder-hostile, former Finance Minister and FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF SAARLAND) as its chairman and united with PDS to "The Left". That's why the "The Left" in Saarland is relatively strong. However, in the Saarland decrease the numbers for " The Left". The PDS had 0.8% in 1999 and 2.3% in 2004 . The new "The Left" in 2009 gained 21.3% and 16.1% in 2012 . Now the polls say 13%, and with the anticipated resignation of Lafontaine it will be below 10%.
Actually, the Catholic Saarland is a CDU stronghold. CDU ruled until 1980 and since 1999. The strength of the SPD is because of the industrial workers, the structural change and was the person Lafontaine. It is expected that SPD will try to work with "The Left" after Lafontaines resignation, if the parties together will gain a majority. The Greens are quite weak here but could maybe help such a coalition. CDU is relatively far to the left and the FDP barely existent, which means space  for AfD.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

infratest dimap

39% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
11% Greens
9% Left
6% AfD
-----------
4% FDP
5% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Emnid

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%
---------------
Others 5%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

facebook likes

AfD 109.556
(CDU/CSU) 100.797
Pirates 89.459
Left 79.881
CDU 78.850
SPD 71.248
Greens 50.284
FDP 28.020
CSU 21.947

[republicanbayer]

FW are polling surprisingly weak in Bavaria. In the latest bavarian poll for the EP election they're only at 3%, which makes it almost impossible to win two seats.