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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655397 times)
Unimog
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« Reply #400 on: August 31, 2014, 02:20:36 AM »

My prediction:

41,2 % CDU
19,5 % Left
14,5 % SPD
  6,5 % AfD
  6,0 % Green
  5,5 % NPD
  2,5 % FDP
  4,3 % ./.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #401 on: August 31, 2014, 03:03:17 AM »

I just took the Wahlomat's 38 questions for Saxony.

The parties that came out on top for me:

79.2% Pirates
76.0% Left
75.0% Animal Protection Party

72.9% SPD
69.8% The Party
64.6% Greens
63.5% FW
62.5% DSU
49.0% BüSo
47.9% Pro Deutschland
47.9% FDP

45.8% NPD
39.6% CDU
38.5% AfD


https://www10.wahl-o-mat.de/sachsen2014/main_app.php
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #402 on: August 31, 2014, 03:39:29 AM »

Damn, the first turnout report from 10am shows that only 5.7% of all eligible voters have voted so far, compared with 8.7% in 2009.

http://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_wbt.prc_beteiligung?p_bzid=LW14&p_ebene=SN&p_ort=14

2009 already saw the historically worst turnout in Saxony with just 52% turnout.

And today it seems it will be even lower (today is the last day of school holidays in the state).

I would have thought turnout might increase because of AfD motivating previous non-voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #403 on: August 31, 2014, 03:53:54 AM »

The current "negative-record" for turnout in a German state election was set in 2006 in Saxony-Anhalt with just 44.4%

Saxony is on track to beat this today, if turnout does not pick up later in the day ...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #404 on: August 31, 2014, 04:06:32 AM »

Experience has taught me that when you have a social-liberal party and a vaguely more leftist party competing somewhat closely for a rank, the social-liberal party nearly always end up ahead of the vaguely more leftist party. Not always, I grant you, but nearly always.

That didn't happen in the 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009 Saxony state elections though. In fact, the exact opposite of what you just described occurred.

Final 2009 poll: SPD 14%, Left 20%
Actual 2009 result: SPD 10.4%, Left 20.6%

Final 2004 poll: SPD 14%, PDS 19%
Actual 2004 result: SPD 9.8%, PDS 23.6%

Final 1999 poll: SPD 16%, PDS 18%
Actual 1999 result: SPD 10.7%, PDS 22.2%

Final 1994 poll: SPD 23%, PDS 16%
Actual 1994 poll: SPD 16.6%, PDS 16.5%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #405 on: August 31, 2014, 04:17:25 AM »

Yepp.

Hopefully, the SPD will finally stop this today and live up to their pre-election polling.

Otherwise, my prediction would be crappy ... Tongue
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sirius3100
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Germany


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« Reply #406 on: August 31, 2014, 04:41:21 AM »

Your prediction will be crappy because of the low turnout anyway Wink

I've no idea how you expected a higher turnout than the last time. There has been basically no real campaigning for this election. Here is my prediction I made at wahlrecht.de yesterday (I also didn't expect such a extremly low turnout, so especially the number for the NPD might be too low and for the Left too high):

CDU: 40,5%
Left: 18,5%
SPD: 15,0%
FDP: 3,0%
Greens: 6,0%
NPD: 5,0%
AFD: 7,5%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #407 on: August 31, 2014, 06:38:58 AM »

12:00 turnout in Saxony still lagging behind 2009:

14.9% vs. 19.4% in 2009
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Unimog
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« Reply #408 on: August 31, 2014, 06:54:18 AM »

good for cdu, left & npd.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« Reply #409 on: August 31, 2014, 07:39:12 AM »

2pm turnout in Saxony:

2014: 23.1%
2009: 27.6%

Looks like ca. 45-48% in the end.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #410 on: August 31, 2014, 09:21:34 AM »

I doubt, that this will be good for the left. Differently from common wisdom the average Linke voter is not so much the retiree "I vote my party whatever happens" voter. Their best ages are more the 40-60 year olds.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #411 on: August 31, 2014, 09:23:00 AM »
« Edited: August 31, 2014, 09:26:40 AM by Yeahsayyeah »

Damn, the first turnout report from 10am shows that only 5.7% of all eligible voters have voted so far, compared with 8.7% in 2009.
This is without mail voters, though. Well, thet happens if you set an election intentionally at the last day of the summer holidays. The rainy weather would not help either.
At least in Leipzig, turnout is acellerating a little bit throughout the afternoon, so they are now ahead of the European election numbers at Saxony-Anhalt 2006 level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #412 on: August 31, 2014, 09:52:12 AM »


I would imagine it would also help AfD
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jaichind
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« Reply #413 on: August 31, 2014, 11:00:31 AM »

ARD projects CDU at 39%
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jaichind
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« Reply #414 on: August 31, 2014, 11:01:07 AM »

ARD: GERMAN SPD TAKES 12.5% IN SAXONY; LEFT PARTY 19%; AFD 10%
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jaichind
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« Reply #415 on: August 31, 2014, 11:01:42 AM »

ARD TELEVISION PROJECTIONS SHOW POSSIBLE CDU-SPD COALITION
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« Reply #416 on: August 31, 2014, 11:01:48 AM »

1st projection (ARD):

39.0% CDU
19.0% Left
12.5% SPD
10.0% AfD
  6.0% Greens
  5.0% NPD
  3.5% FDP
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #417 on: August 31, 2014, 11:03:58 AM »

1st ZDF projection:

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jaichind
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« Reply #418 on: August 31, 2014, 11:06:11 AM »

Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #419 on: August 31, 2014, 11:09:25 AM »

Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.

Yeah, if the NPD ends up with 4.99% I wouldn't really mind the AfD in the state parliament.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #420 on: August 31, 2014, 11:13:49 AM »

I already thought that the AfD would outperform their pre-election polls, but 10% is certainly impressive (pre-election polls: 6-7%) and considering it's just the 1st projection there's still some room for 11% ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #421 on: August 31, 2014, 11:18:18 AM »

1st ARD-Hochrechnung:



AfD gained mostly former CDU, FDP, Left and NPD voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #422 on: August 31, 2014, 11:20:07 AM »

1st ZDF-Hochrechnung:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #423 on: August 31, 2014, 11:28:21 AM »

Both ARD and ZDF project turnout at 48.5% (-4%).

It would be the worst turnout in the history of Saxony and the 2nd lowest in German state elections ever.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #424 on: August 31, 2014, 11:39:41 AM »

Actual results with clickable district maps:

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/wahldaten100.html

Click on "Wahlkreise" for district results.

"Erststimme" means FPTP-district vote.

"Zweitstimme" means PR/list vote.

Results should start to come in in the next hour, with a final result at ca. 11pm.
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